ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[meriland23]

Giant ULL awaits Katia. Katia had better build up some ACE because unless the ULL moves it is going to wind whip Katia......MGC

Are you talking about this one?

THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IS FORECAST
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN.

I do not know what that indicates (weakening trough at 50w). Sorry, I am a Chef, not meteorologist, but still love to learn here .

[Annie Oakley]

"Anyways, can anyone dummy down these graphs and why you guys think certain runs are incorrect ?"

This is no time for lessons or dummying down...the noticeable absence of Pro Mets and the more knowledgeable ones on this board are a sure sign that things are being studied, analyzed, and taken seriously.

Be patient...watch and learn. Many lives are at stake right now so there is some serious discussion going on which we are not privy to and for good reason. Major decisions are being made.

[ROCK]

I still think the BH will bridge with the EC high though letting Kat get very close to the US ala NOGAPS and CMC...

[HurricaneWarning92]

huh? or perhaps its pretty late and they are sleeping?... Katia is still in the central Atlantic, and no one knows for sure where this will go, though there still is a good chance this will recurve, IMO. Im not sure how many lives are at stake right now...

[SouthFloridawx]

Giant ULL awaits Katia. Katia had better build up some ACE because unless the ULL moves it is going to wind whip Katia......MGC

Are you talking about this one?

THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
AND OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IS FORECAST
BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN.

I do not know what that indicates (weakening trough at 50w). Sorry, I am a Chef, not meteorologist, but still love to learn here .

Here is one of my favorite charts when trying to picture what altitude people are talking about.

I am still new to this too and it's been since like 2004 when I really started following this.

If you hang around here enough you will learn a lot. Sometimes I just ask the Meteorologist questions and that helps too.

[meriland23]

I still think the BH will bridge with the EC high though letting Kat get very close to the US ala NOGAPS and CMC...

Do you know where I can find runs of updated/current EURO? Kind of interested if they got their models up and running yet.

[SouthFloridawx]

NOGAPS at 144 Hours

[SouthFloridawx]

180 NOGAPS

[meriland23]

180 NOGAPS

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/7664 ... lantic.gif

I am pulling a Makulay Culkin here "AHHHHHH!"

[ROCK]

[quote="SouthFloridawx"]180 NOGAPS

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/7664 ... c.gifquote]


that is very west as it misses the first weakness...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

"Anyways, can anyone dummy down these graphs and why you guys think certain runs are incorrect ?"

This is no time for lessons or dummying down...the noticeable absence of Pro Mets and the more knowledgeable ones on this board are a sure sign that things are being studied, analyzed, and taken seriously.

Be patient...watch and learn. Many lives are at stake right now so there is some serious discussion going on which we are not privy to and for good reason. Major decisions are being made.

What? Could be because it is still many days away and it is midnight and they are probably fast asleep because they have to work tomorrow. Plenty of time to give someone lessons and a perfect storm to do so.

[SouthFloridawx]

180 NOGAPS

http://img706.imageshack.us/img706/7664 ... c.gifquote]


that is very west as it misses the first weakness...

Yeah and it's not really showing another weakness after that...

[Annie Oakley]

:uarrow: huh? or perhaps its pretty late and they are sleeping?... Katia is still in the central Atlantic, and no one knows for sure where this will go, though there still is a good chance this will recurve, IMO. Im not sure how many lives are at stake right now...

'perhaps its pretty late and they are sleeping?' ....there are weather people and emergency management people who keep a 24 hour watch.
"Im not sure how many lives are at stake right now.."
No-one knows how many lives are at stake for sure. You are correct,

[SFLcane]

Absolute worse model there with the nopaps.

[USTropics]

Here is a quick breakdown (and a poorly drawn image) of what we're talking about. I'll use the latest GFS run at 114 hours:



As you see, up to the north over the Great Lakes/eastern Canada is our trough moving east. It is indicated by the 'U' type of shape and the low pressures accompanied with it (as well as the yellow/orange/green colors). To our right is our Atlantic ridge indicated by higher pressures (as well as the purple colors). Higher pressures act to block a tropical system from moving north, but as our trough moves towards the east, it will erode the ridge and allow for, in this case Katia, to be pulled north by the low pressures associated with the trough.

[meriland23]

192 nogaps is going to be interesting. I can't believe how incredibly differential both nogaps and gfs are in PP. That is quite and wide range of possibilities. Not going to take either seriously of course cause it is way too far out, but from what I understand of peoples opinion (and nhc) gfs is usually most accurate and is more renowned. But I could be all wrong here.

[SouthFloridawx]

192 nogaps is going to be interesting. I can't believe how incredibly differential both nogaps and gfs are in PP. That is quite and wide range of possibilities. Not going to take either seriously of course cause it is way too far out, but from what I understand of peoples opinion (and nhc) gfs is usually most accurate and is more renowned. But I could be all wrong here.

Here's a link for the NOGAPS. It only goes out to 180 Hours. Mess around with it and explore...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_DOD_area.cgi?area=fnmoc_atlantic&set=All

[Annie Oakley]

'What? Could be because it is still many days away and it is midnight and they are probably fast asleep because they have to work tomorrow. Plenty of time to give someone lessons and a perfect storm to do so.'

Cyclone Mike.....I understand someone wanting more knowledge. I didn't mean to sound so harsh. Indeed, if you have the time to explain it all go for it. This is a developing situation in real time and I admire anyone wanting to know more.

[meriland23]

Here is a quick breakdown (and a poorly drawn image) of what we're talking about. I'll use the latest GFS run at 114 hours:

http://gbimg.org/p.php?q=9EFWO

As you see, up to the north over the Great Lakes/eastern Canada is our trough moving east. It is indicated by the 'U' type of shape and the low pressures accompanied with it (as well as the yellow/orange/green colors). To our right is our Atlantic ridge indicated by higher pressures (as well as the purple colors). Higher pressures act to block a tropical system from moving north, but as our trough moves towards the east, it will erode the ridge and allow for, in this case Katia, to be pulled north by the low pressures associated with the trough.

OOO okay, danke, that makes sence. So the ridge acts as a wall practically forcing the tropical system to move westwardly more so. The trough is it's weakness and causes it to weaken when near. Alright. I see that now, what in this forecast indicated this more westward movement models are leaning towards if that ridge is well, from your image, looks destined to weaken since it interacts with that trough.

[SouthFloridawx]

Also here is a glossary of Meteorology by the American Meteorology Society that you can look up about any technical word that you don't understand.

http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/browse