ATL: IRENE - Models

[robbielyn]

i do understand that aug trough digging so deep was an unusual event though. But we do get easily bogged down with traffic. EOC needs to make sure that all toll roads are free and headed in one direction to facilitate smoother evacuation early enough. Rather safe than sorry.

[northjaxpro]

being in the middle of the swings 7 days out is unsettling.
up the spine is better for me personally, as that would mean an offshore wind and no surge until the storm passed northeast of us. it would greatly weaken by the time that happened, so no real surge to worry about. a west coast runner or something staying just offshore heading for the panhandle is worst case scenario.
Both of those possibilities would prove a logisitics nightmare for the EMC folks. How do you evacuate the whole state or coastline? nowhere to hide.
central gulf or east of florida and we can rest easier, but that brings a bad storm to others. not good all around. let's hope this never gets its act together at all and follows Harvey.

Why thank you for wishing it on us. But don't get worked up, if it were to go up the peninsula, it would be weak, because it would have to cross over mountainous Cuba and Hispaniola.

Well, it could still take track south of Hispaniola and track over either Central or Western Cuba while making a turn into the weakness into the EGOM or toward the FL peninsula. I do believe the terrian over Central and Wetern Cuba is nowhere as hilly or mountainous as it is in Eastern Cuba. As a matter of fact, the western end of Cuba is rather flat. So, if a track like this occured, the system would not hardly get disrupted much at all. Plus, some of the warmest sea surface temps are found in the area north of Cuba in the SE GOM. So, there is a potential that should this tropical entity found its way into the Eastern or SE GOM, it could have the potential to spin up and become a very strong hurricane on its approach to the West Coast of the FL peninsula or the NE Gulf Coastal area.

[jinftl]

Is that evacuation just out of the designated surge zones? Here in Broward, pretty much west of 95 is outside the evacuation zone. Go to a friends or family's storm-ready house 5 miles inland and evacuation is complete.

Katrina was heading to Destin FL, at 72hrs until landfall. Then it changed some 200 miles to the Mississippi/Louisiana border. Than we all know what happened. Don't get caught up in the exact projected landfall, based on models this far out. Wait for the 72hr. (3 day) forecast, than get worried.

Believe me, I was not worried, but was watching with Katrina, until that Friday evening when the major shift to the west came out. Then I was worried and got the theck out of dodge.

Stay calm and prepared. Have a plan. Don't wait until 72hrs for potential landfall, to have a plan. Do not get consumed with the next model run/projected path. Too far away.

It takes 63 hours to evacuate just my county, let alone if folks to our soouth are also evacuating and have already clogged the highways. Watches don't even get issued util 48 hours out. By then, it is too late. Most folks don't bother getting worried until the warnings are posted, and even then, most poo poo it around here, since Tampa Bay is "shielded".

[MGC]

97L looks a bit less organized this morning. Might be another one that has trouble getting a surface circulation going. The longer it takes to close off the more west it will likely track when it does.

The key to evacuation is to wait till the last minute. We left Sunday afternoon for Katrina....actually went though the first feeder band on the drive out. Also, stay off the interstate if you can as almost everyone will be on it. We had smooth sailing to Florida where we watched on TV my region being destroyed......MGC

[Kory]

being in the middle of the swings 7 days out is unsettling.
up the spine is better for me personally, as that would mean an offshore wind and no surge until the storm passed northeast of us. it would greatly weaken by the time that happened, so no real surge to worry about. a west coast runner or something staying just offshore heading for the panhandle is worst case scenario.
Both of those possibilities would prove a logisitics nightmare for the EMC folks. How do you evacuate the whole state or coastline? nowhere to hide.
central gulf or east of florida and we can rest easier, but that brings a bad storm to others. not good all around. let's hope this never gets its act together at all and follows Harvey.

Why thank you for wishing it on us. But don't get worked up, if it were to go up the peninsula, it would be weak, because it would have to cross over mountainous Cuba and Hispaniola.

Well, it could still take track south of Hispaniola and track over either Central or Western Cuba while making a turn into the weakness into the EGOM or toward the FL peninsula. I do believe the terrian over Central and Wetern Cuba is nowhere as hilly or mountainous as it is in Eastern Cuba. As a matter of fact, the western end of Cuba is rather flat. So, if a track like this occured, the system would not hardly get disrupted much at all. Plus, some of the warmest sea surface temps are found in the area north of Cuba in the SE GOM. So, there is a potential that should this tropical entity found its way into the Eastern or SE GOM, it could have the potential to spin up and become a very strong hurricane on its approach to the West Coast of the FL peninsula or the NE Gulf Coastal area.

Still if it is still such a broad circulation, it would have some affects from the mountainous terrain. And as I have been saying all season, just like Emily ingested some dry continental air from the death ridge over the mid South, future Irene could do that same. Like Ivanhater said, it would be much stronger if it took to the central or eastern Gulf.

[robbielyn]

Is that evacuation just out of the designated surge zones? Here in Broward, pretty much west of 95 is outside the evacuation zone. Go to a friends or family's storm-ready house 5 miles inland and evacuation is complete.

Katrina was heading to Destin FL, at 72hrs until landfall. Then it changed some 200 miles to the Mississippi/Louisiana border. Than we all know what happened. Don't get caught up in the exact projected landfall, based on models this far out. Wait for the 72hr. (3 day) forecast, than get worried.

Believe me, I was not worried, but was watching with Katrina, until that Friday evening when the major shift to the west came out. Then I was worried and got the theck out of dodge.

Stay calm and prepared. Have a plan. Don't wait until 72hrs for potential landfall, to have a plan. Do not get consumed with the next model run/projected path. Too far away.

It takes 63 hours to evacuate just my county, let alone if folks to our soouth are also evacuating and have already clogged the highways. Watches don't even get issued util 48 hours out. By then, it is too late. Most folks don't bother getting worried until the warnings are posted, and even then, most poo poo it around here, since Tampa Bay is "shielded".

Well we are lol. its really the angle that makes a direct hit next to impossible. Charley came super close cuz of that trough that dug down. otherwise it wouldve been a panhandle westward storm

[SouthDadeFish]

97L looks a bit less organized this morning. Might be another one that has trouble getting a surface circulation going. The longer it takes to close off the more west it will likely track when it does.

The key to evacuation is to wait till the last minute. We left Sunday afternoon for Katrina....actually went though the first feeder band on the drive out. Also, stay off the interstate if you can as almost everyone will be on it. We had smooth sailing to Florida where we watched on TV my region being destroyed......MGC

Are you really telling people to wait until the last minute to evacuate? What kind of advice is that? You are not guaranteed a smooth sail out at the last minute. You very well could have got stuck in traffic as a hurricane pulled overhead. I would advise no one to wait until the last minute to evacuate. You should already have your plan and under what circumstances you want to evacuate, so that there is no indecision and hesitation when the time comes.

[robbielyn]

97L looks a bit less organized this morning. Might be another one that has trouble getting a surface circulation going. The longer it takes to close off the more west it will likely track when it does.

The key to evacuation is to wait till the last minute. We left Sunday afternoon for Katrina....actually went though the first feeder band on the drive out. Also, stay off the interstate if you can as almost everyone will be on it. We had smooth sailing to Florida where we watched on TV my region being destroyed......MGC

Are you really telling people to wait until the last minute to evacuate? What kind of advice is that? You are not guaranteed a smooth sail out at the last minute. You very well could have got stuck in traffic as a hurricane pulled overhead. I would advise no one to wait until the last minute to evacuate. You should already have your plan and under what circumstances you want to evacuate, so that there is no indecision and hesitation when the time comes.

Amen. Just cuz it worked for you doesnt mean it will work for everyone. one doesnt wait til they are almost trapped to make a beeline for it. Its not pratical or wise.

[CourierPR]

Is this a thread for evacuation procedures or one for discussing models?

[DeanDaDream]

Is this a thread for evacuation procedures or one for discussing models?

LOL!

[SouthDadeFish]

Is this a thread for evacuation procedures or one for discussing models?

It is for discussing models. But I did not want to leave people to seriously take that advise and risk their family's lives.

Anyway, I see the Euro has been consistent on FL hit the last few runs. Not sure I believe a storm could survive that much land interaction though.

[Ivanhater]

MGC explained what worked for her. Evacuation plans should be left up to your local EOC. Move along and get back to 97L

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Is that evacuation just out of the designated surge zones? Here in Broward, pretty much west of 95 is outside the evacuation zone. Go to a friends or family's storm-ready house 5 miles inland and evacuation is complete.

[quote="TreasureIslandFLGal
It takes 63 hours to evacuate just my county, let alone if folks to our soouth are also evacuating and have already clogged the highways. Watches don't even get issued util 48 hours out. By then, it is too late. Most folks don't bother getting worried until the warnings are posted, and even then, most poo poo it around here, since Tampa Bay is "shielded".

[/quote]


Pinellas County is that little bit of land west of Tampa that sticks out and creates Tampa Bay. Most of the county is in a flood zone. In a big storm, the county becomes 2 small islands, split in the middle. Much of St. Petersburg stays afloat, and eastern clearwater is mostly afloat.

That evacuation time is for the surge zones. We have lots of population on the barrier islands (big condos on the beach) and a huge elderly population too with health issues. Many can't drive. Bussing peopel out and arranging transport for elderly is a massive undertaking. Shelters are mostly not equipped to handle those needing oxygen, etc., let alone pets.
I hate to say it, but the southern "island" also includes much of what is known as "South Side", which has hosted a few riots/looting over the past years and there are issues with police race relations. Nothing like 20 years ago, but still not great. There could be a worse scenario than Katrina unfold here as far as public disobedience/unrest. Tropicana Field could host people out of flood zone, but the roof would easily come off in a big storm.

[Vortex]

12Z NAM at H+54 intensiyfing at a good clip...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

[Dean4Storms]

97L looks a bit less organized this morning. Might be another one that has trouble getting a surface circulation going. The longer it takes to close off the more west it will likely track when it does.

The key to evacuation is to wait till the last minute. We left Sunday afternoon for Katrina....actually went though the first feeder band on the drive out. Also, stay off the interstate if you can as almost everyone will be on it. We had smooth sailing to Florida where we watched on TV my region being destroyed......MGC

I did the same thing with Ivan and Dennis, worked much better. No traffic and made it to GA hotel in 4 hours. All those who evacuated the day they announced it were sitting in bumper to bumper traffic. Just be sure you are gassed up and ready to go.

[Ivanhater]

Last time I am going to say it...get back on topic now.

[Vortex]

H+60 continuing to strengthen SE of DR...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z NAM looks farther south than previous runs.

[Kory]

H+60 continuing to strengthen SE of DR...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

I wonder if we are going to see it getting tugged to the north. That trough is quite evident on that run...

[Vortex]

H+66 bombing out SE of Santo Domingo...Folks youll really see NAM go this intense.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif