ATL: IRENE - Models

[Kory]

The HWRF model takes it to the east of Florida with a re curve...interesting that the models may be showing less of a pattern change as they did before.

HWRF has been too far right all season. Actually,all models have been too far right so far this season.

All the tropical models you mean? The Euro nailed Harvey's track a few days ago and nailed Emily's track too.

[Ivanhater]

Euro had 93L too far north and east for a while as well. The problem imo this season has been delayed development, so we will see how this shakes out.

[TBCaneFreak]

The HWRF model takes it to the east of Florida with a re curve...interesting that the models may be showing less of a pattern change as they did before.

HWRF has been too far right all season. Actually,all models have been too far right so far this season.

All the tropical models you mean? The Euro nailed Harvey's track a few days ago and nailed Emily's track too.

Just for the sake of debate, its coming to everyones house that wants it...JK

[Emmett_Brown]

Another variable in the model runs over the last 24 hours is speed of motion. GFS has trended a bit faster over the past few runs, now showing potential FL impact about 12-24 hours sooner than it did before. Also, the disturbance seems to be moving at a faster clip, so future runs will obviously still change a bit. This can have big impacts on the point of recurvature next week, assuming the storm actually develops of course.

[TBCaneFreak]

Another variable in the model runs over the last 24 hours is speed of motion. GFS has trended a bit faster over the past few runs, now showing potential FL impact about 12-24 hours sooner than it did before. Also, the disturbance seems to be moving at a faster clip, so future runs will obviously still change a bit. This can have big impacts on the point of recurvature next week, assuming the storm actually develops of course.

Yes..the models seem to be handling the "real time conditions" remarkably well. They are adjusting things as we go. Still appears to have they eyes of models, and most pro mets, in same location..the SE, Florida, or as far west as AL/MS...Time will tell

[RevDodd]

This far out, it is certainly possible 97L could get much closer to Texas than currently projected. Much would depend on just how potent that approaching trough will be and whether 97L is strong enough to be swayed by it.

Essentially, the stronger the storm is and the deeper the trough cuts, the sooner it turns. Just a couple of things to watch.

[Emmett_Brown]

Given the forward speed is still around 20 mph, I would not be surprised to see future model runs trend back West a bit. (Probably not too far West).

[Kory]

TVCN model has it over land (Hispaniola, Cuba) for quite some time. It would struggle to strengthen if it took the TVCN track.

[gatorcane]

Given the forward speed is still around 20 mph, I would not be surprised to see future model runs trend back West a bit. (Probably not too far West).

I can see them shifting west some to the EGOM/FL panhandle, but that 20mph speed is going to come down over the next couple of days as it reaches edge of a subtropical ridge in the Central Atlantic.

[TBCaneFreak]

This far out, it is certainly possible 97L could get much closer to Texas than currently projected. Much would depend on just how potent that approaching trough will be and whether 97L is strong enough to be swayed by it.

Essentially, the stronger the storm is and the deeper the trough cuts, the sooner it turns. Just a couple of things to watch.

With that being said, A Stronger storm fails to miss weakness..IMO A weaker storm, probably can not displace the ridge over TX..so looks highly suspect at this time, New Orleans, however????

[crownweather]

Noticed that the 12Z TVCN model is about 60 miles further south than the 06Z run. In the end, the 12Z run pulls this right into downtown Miami instead of Vero Beach. Personally, I think we will see further south & west shifts and in the end, my opinion is that this stays just south of Hispaniola and crosses near central/western Cuba. Of course, I could be wrong.

[Dean4Storms]

Given the forward speed is still around 20 mph, I would not be surprised to see future model runs trend back West a bit. (Probably not too far West).

I can see them shifting west some to the EGOM/FL panhandle, but that 20mph speed is going to come down over the next couple of days as it reaches edge of a subtropical ridge in the Central Atlantic.

I'm pretty much in agreement there as much as I hate to say it. Looks like a Miami, FL to Mobile, AL threat area dependent on the exact curvature around the ridge which may also be influenced by how deep a system is in the Carib. Sea. A deeper system and I think turns northward sooner and heads for southeast FL, a slower struggling system and this gets over into the Gulf before turning into the SW periphery of the ridge.

I think HPC believes it will struggle to develop in the Carb. Sea and the reason for the much further west placement of the Low near western Cuba on day 6.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

being in the middle of the swings 7 days out is unsettling.
up the spine is better for me personally, as that would mean an offshore wind and no surge until the storm passed northeast of us. it would greatly weaken by the time that happened, so no real surge to worry about. a west coast runner or something staying just offshore heading for the panhandle is worst case scenario.
Both of those possibilities would prove a logisitics nightmare for the EMC folks. How do you evacuate the whole state or coastline? nowhere to hide.
central gulf or east of florida and we can rest easier, but that brings a bad storm to others. not good all around. let's hope this never gets its act together at all and follows Harvey.

[psyclone]

Noticed that the 12Z TVCN model is about 60 miles further south than the 06Z run. In the end, the 12Z run pulls this right into downtown Miami instead of Vero Beach. Personally, I think we will see further south & west shifts and in the end, my opinion is that this stays just south of Hispaniola and crosses near central/western Cuba. Of course, I could be wrong.

that seems really reasonable at this point. i keep thinking back to dennis but a but a bit to the east.

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[3090]

Katrina was heading to Destin FL, at 72hrs until landfall. Then it changed some 200 miles to the Mississippi/Louisiana border. Than we all know what happened. Don't get caught up in the exact projected landfall, based on models this far out. Wait for the 72hr. (3 day) forecast, than get worried.

Believe me, I was not worried, but was watching with Katrina, until that Friday evening when the major shift to the west came out. Then I was worried and got the theck out of dodge.

Stay calm and prepared. Have a plan. Don't wait until 72hrs for potential landfall, to have a plan. Do not get consumed with the next model run/projected path. Too far away.

[Ivanhater]

If this hits the Florida Peninsula it still could be a bad storm but not as bad as it would be if it hits the Florida Panhandle or central gulf with the environment the models are showing.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Katrina was heading to Destin FL, at 72hrs until landfall. Then it changed some 200 miles to the Mississippi/Louisiana border. Than we all know what happened. Don't get caught up in the exact projected landfall, based on models this far out. Wait for the 72hr. (3 day) forecast, than get worried.

Believe me, I was not worried, but was watching with Katrina, until that Friday evening when the major shift to the west came out. Then I was worried and got the theck out of dodge.

Stay calm and prepared. Have a plan. Don't wait until 72hrs for potential landfall, to have a plan. Do not get consumed with the next model run/projected path. Too far away.

It takes 63 hours to evacuate just my county, let alone if folks to our soouth are also evacuating and have already clogged the highways. Watches don't even get issued util 48 hours out. By then, it is too late. Most folks don't bother getting worried until the warnings are posted, and even then, most poo poo it around here, since Tampa Bay is "shielded".

[Kory]

being in the middle of the swings 7 days out is unsettling.
up the spine is better for me personally, as that would mean an offshore wind and no surge until the storm passed northeast of us. it would greatly weaken by the time that happened, so no real surge to worry about. a west coast runner or something staying just offshore heading for the panhandle is worst case scenario.
Both of those possibilities would prove a logisitics nightmare for the EMC folks. How do you evacuate the whole state or coastline? nowhere to hide.
central gulf or east of florida and we can rest easier, but that brings a bad storm to others. not good all around. let's hope this never gets its act together at all and follows Harvey.

Why thank you for wishing it on us. But don't get worked up, if it were to go up the peninsula, it would be weak, because it would have to cross over mountainous Cuba and Hispaniola.

[robbielyn]

being in the middle of the swings 7 days out is unsettling.
up the spine is better for me personally, as that would mean an offshore wind and no surge until the storm passed northeast of us. it would greatly weaken by the time that happened, so no real surge to worry about. a west coast runner or something staying just offshore heading for the panhandle is worst case scenario.
Both of those possibilities would prove a logisitics nightmare for the EMC folks. How do you evacuate the whole state or coastline? nowhere to hide.
central gulf or east of florida and we can rest easier, but that brings a bad storm to others. not good all around. let's hope this never gets its act together at all and follows Harvey.

Why thank you for wishing it on us. But don't get worked up, if it were to go up the peninsula, it would be weak, because it would have to cross over mountainous Cuba and Hispaniola.

"how do you evacuate a whole state?" we tried that with charley. sent everyone east to orlando and charley said oh no you dont im going to get them one way or another. went right thru orlando i evacuated to orlando saw weather getting worse headed back home to hernando county. probably best to leave the state and head north.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

being in the middle of the swings 7 days out is unsettling.
up the spine is better for me personally, as that would mean an offshore wind and no surge until the storm passed northeast of us. it would greatly weaken by the time that happened, so no real surge to worry about. a west coast runner or something staying just offshore heading for the panhandle is worst case scenario.
Both of those possibilities would prove a logisitics nightmare for the EMC folks. How do you evacuate the whole state or coastline? nowhere to hide.
central gulf or east of florida and we can rest easier, but that brings a bad storm to others. not good all around. let's hope this never gets its act together at all and follows Harvey.

Why thank you for wishing it on us. But don't get worked up, if it were to go up the peninsula, it would be weak, because it would have to cross over mountainous Cuba and Hispaniola.

I actually hope it does go up the spine, as that would be best for me if it does have to hit someone in FL or along the gulf. Or else it needs to go far to the west side of the models. The east consensus or the west one...just not in the middle or slightly to the west of middle. that is really bad new if that pans out.
The good thing is that pinellas county is in the middle at this point in the game....as the models usually shift quite a bit from now to the end game. by then, we could be pretty safe. but again...not wishing this on anyone!