ATL : HARVEY - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1321 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:46 pm

ozonepete wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Only 190nm to the coat of Honduras. That's 12 more hours over water unless it jogs northward.


Isn't it about to slow down considerably?


Yeah, a bit, but models have it reaching NE Honduras around mid morning tomorrow. Not a lot of time remaining.

18Z models still say "INVEST"

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110818 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110818 1800 110819 0600 110819 1800 110820 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 80.4W 15.8N 82.2W 16.1N 83.9W 16.3N 85.6W
BAMD 15.4N 80.4W 15.6N 82.5W 15.6N 84.3W 15.5N 86.1W
BAMM 15.4N 80.4W 15.7N 82.2W 15.8N 83.8W 15.9N 85.5W
LBAR 15.4N 80.4W 15.5N 82.6W 16.0N 85.1W 16.5N 87.5W
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#1322 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:55 pm

Up to 30 knots:

AL, 93, 2011081818, , BEST, 0, 154N, 804W, 30, 1008, DB,
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1323 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 18, 2011 1:55 pm

wxman57 wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Only 190nm to the coat of Honduras. That's 12 more hours over water unless it jogs northward.


Isn't it about to slow down considerably?


Yeah, a bit, but models have it reaching NE Honduras around mid morning tomorrow. Not a lot of time remaining.

18Z models still say "INVEST"

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932011) 20110818 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
110818 1800 110819 0600 110819 1800 110820 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 80.4W 15.8N 82.2W 16.1N 83.9W 16.3N 85.6W
BAMD 15.4N 80.4W 15.6N 82.5W 15.6N 84.3W 15.5N 86.1W
BAMM 15.4N 80.4W 15.7N 82.2W 15.8N 83.8W 15.9N 85.5W
LBAR 15.4N 80.4W 15.5N 82.6W 16.0N 85.1W 16.5N 87.5W


yep but they have renumbered many times after... but dont think they will again unless they get some data.
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#1324 Postby westwind » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:13 pm

:uarrow: well 93L is now approaching buoy 42057 which I have been watching.
if the LLC passes directly over it we should see a wind sift which could get it upgraded.
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Re:

#1325 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:17 pm

westwind wrote::uarrow: well 93L is now approaching buoy 42057 which I have been watching.
if the LLC passes directly over it we should see a wind sift which could get it upgraded.


Pressure is starting to fall:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?s ... _label=EST
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Re:

#1326 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:17 pm

westwind wrote::uarrow: well 93L is now approaching buoy 42057 which I have been watching.
if the LLC passes directly over it we should see a wind sift which could get it upgraded.


well that is unlikely.. because any center would be to far south for it cross directly over. but the pressures are falling quite fast right now. little more than normal afternoon pressure falls.

Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1327 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:20 pm

Nice loop that does not update.

Image
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#1328 Postby supercane » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:25 pm

Close-up view from earlier ASCAT:
Image
Latest vis:
Image
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1329 Postby HurrMark » Thu Aug 18, 2011 2:54 pm

Doesn't look as well organized as earlier...and I think it may come in a bit to the south of where we thought it would go...so in my opinion, it is a bit less likely that this will develop into anything significant...as wxman57 says, if this hits Honduras rather than stay over open waters, it has maybe 12 or so hours to go. It needs to gain some latitude quickly.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1330 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:07 pm

HurrMark wrote:Doesn't look as well organized as earlier...and I think it may come in a bit to the south of where we thought it would go...so in my opinion, it is a bit less likely that this will develop into anything significant...as wxman57 says, if this hits Honduras rather than stay over open waters, it has maybe 12 or so hours to go. It needs to gain some latitude quickly.


look a lot more organized now. with clear banding developing and convection firing..
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Re: Re:

#1331 Postby westwind » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
westwind wrote::uarrow: well 93L is now approaching buoy 42057 which I have been watching.
if the LLC passes directly over it we should see a wind sift which could get it upgraded.


well that is unlikely.. because any center would be to far south for it cross directly over. but the pressures are falling quite fast right now. little more than normal afternoon pressure falls.

Image


Yeah thats true I just worked out where the buoy is: now reporting pressure of 1009mb and falling rapidly with sustained winds of 23.3kt which is TD strength.
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Re: ATL : INVEST 93L - Discussion

#1332 Postby HurrMark » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:19 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
HurrMark wrote:Doesn't look as well organized as earlier...and I think it may come in a bit to the south of where we thought it would go...so in my opinion, it is a bit less likely that this will develop into anything significant...as wxman57 says, if this hits Honduras rather than stay over open waters, it has maybe 12 or so hours to go. It needs to gain some latitude quickly.


look a lot more organized now. with clear banding developing and convection firing..


I think the banding is status quo from several hours ago...the convection pattern has deteriorated somewhat. It may be a TD, but a poorly organized one...it will probably need another day to get itself going.
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#1333 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:22 pm

Its funny its probably going to come close the landfall tomorrow probably as a TS and wont be any warning..
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#1334 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:39 pm

Banding features developing:

Image
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#1335 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:40 pm

I think it's pretty apparent this is at least a TD, maybe even a TS....
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Re:

#1336 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:41 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Banding features developing:

Image


yeah 1km visible is quite revealing. convection building all around the center. inflow is a vast improvement from this morning and overall structure.
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#1337 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:43 pm

I find it very hard to believe its not a tropical cyclone.
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Re:

#1338 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:43 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:I think it's pretty apparent this is at least a TD, maybe even a TS....


TD ... would say 99.999999 % lol

once we get more convection over the center in the next 6 hours or so TS is likely soon after.
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Re:

#1339 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:44 pm

RL3AO wrote:I find it very hard to believe its not a tropical cyclone.


You are not the only one. If this is not named at 5pm then the 8pm TWO should give near 100%. (Just my opinion)
Last edited by SouthDadeFish on Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#1340 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Aug 18, 2011 3:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:I think it's pretty apparent this is at least a TD, maybe even a TS....


TD ... would say 99.999999 % lol

once we get more convection over the center in the next 6 hours or so TS is likely soon after.


Well I say maybe TS because estimates have been 2.0 for a while now and it is only looking better. Next would be 2.5=TS
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