ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models also start at 65kts.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 010033
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0033 UTC THU SEP 1 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA (AL122011) 20110901 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110901  0000   110901  1200   110902  0000   110902  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.8N  43.6W   15.4N  47.3W   15.4N  49.9W   15.3N  51.6W
BAMD    14.8N  43.6W   15.7N  46.5W   16.8N  48.8W   18.1N  50.8W
BAMM    14.8N  43.6W   15.7N  46.7W   16.6N  49.3W   17.4N  51.5W
LBAR    14.8N  43.6W   15.9N  46.6W   17.0N  49.3W   18.3N  52.0W
SHIP        65KTS          74KTS          84KTS          89KTS
DSHP        65KTS          74KTS          84KTS          89KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110903  0000   110904  0000   110905  0000   110906  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.9N  52.2W   19.7N  52.5W   24.6N  56.8W   25.0N  63.6W
BAMD    19.4N  52.8W   21.6N  56.1W   23.1N  58.5W   24.2N  60.0W
BAMM    18.3N  53.0W   20.5N  55.3W   23.0N  57.5W   24.7N  60.3W
LBAR    19.7N  54.3W   22.7N  58.3W   25.0N  61.4W   24.5N  62.2W
SHIP        93KTS         100KTS          99KTS          91KTS
DSHP        93KTS         100KTS          99KTS          91KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.8N LONCUR =  43.6W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  14.0N LONM12 =  40.0W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  13.1N LONM24 =  36.6W
WNDCUR =   65KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   55KT
CENPRS =  987MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =  110NM RD34SE =   75NM RD34SW =   45NM RD34NW = 110NM
 


[meriland23]

whos staying up till the 00z EURO? i think i will, even though i have class tomorrow...

I am up with ya buddy, very very interested in it.

[UpTheCreek]

I just said tell me it's not.

Okay, I'll bite. Raebie, that is not a hurricane.

[OuterBanker]

LOL, Crickey? Mariland, where are you from. Melbourne, Perth, Sydney? To be honest it's a distance I would prefer at this time to be tracking hurricanes.

[shaggy]

Do not want to see any westward bends in any tracks for Katia. One was enough for North Carolina this year but these models have to make you wonder with the POSSIBLE bend back to the west and a ridge building in the NW Atlantic.

[Trishasmom]

I just said tell me it's not.

Okay, I'll bite. Raebie, that is not a hurricane.

or maybe it's a himmacane?

[BensonTCwatcher]

Do not want to see any westward bends in any tracks for Katia. One was enough for North Carolina this year but these models have to make you wonder with the POSSIBLE bend back to the west and a ridge building in the NW Atlantic.

Let's hope a small possibility. Looks that way now, not staying up for the euro I'll save that stuff 96 hours from now at least

[meriland23]

LOL, Crickey? Mariland, where are you from. Melbourne, Perth, Sydney? To be honest it's a distance I would prefer at this time to be tracking hurricanes.

hhahaha nono not from Aus but would like to visit there. I am actually from MN, have a ton of fam though on the EC so that and my general interest in developing weather keeps me tuned here .

[Lowpressure]

She is looking better by the hour. CDO is becoming well established. Looks to be moving wnw, hard to tell with the center wrapping up. She may be looking back at us in the morning.

[StarmanHDB]

Great Rorschach Test image....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

I see a jumbo shrimp with a bad attitude. What do you see?

[Blown Away]

Looks like the 18z HWRF has a pronounced bend to the west at the end while the 18z GFDL is more WNW

IMO, those W model bends are far enough N that it would still be unlikely to continue moving westward and effect the CONUS.

[shaggy]

Looks like the 18z HWRF has a pronounced bend to the west at the end while the 18z GFDL is more WNW

IMO, those W model bends are far enough N that it would still be unlikely to continue moving westward and effect the CONUS.

Sort of reminds me of 1995's Felix. He recurved but only after the bend back to the west similiar to whats being projected in some of the models for Katia. Just a similiarity but certainly not likely at this point everytihng is gonna change over the coming days.

[Swimdude]

Great Rorschach Test image....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

I see a jumbo shrimp with a bad attitude. What do you see?

I see a flaming mermaid giving me the finger.

No, really. Check out the feeder band on the west side. Head turned to the left. Finger to the right. Anyone?

[otowntiger]

After 216 it just drives off practically due east. Interesting model run

All of the models seem to be very consistent in shooting Katia off to the northeast missing the CONUS by a lot. I see no reason to be too concerned about this system, currently anyway.

[HurricaneBill]

Great Rorschach Test image....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

I see a jumbo shrimp with a bad attitude. What do you see?

A herd of beautiful wild ponies running free across the plains.

[locke]

A degree of uncertainty must be present at the moment with regards any potential interplay between Lee (if it forms) and Katia.

If both systems got within about 1,400km of each other then the fujiwharra effect might become a factor. However this would require Katia to get west of 70W and for Lee to take a more Easterly track than models are currently forecasting.

Still will be interesting to watch. Anyone wanting to see a classic example of what this can do should look at the effect in action on TC's Neville and Olga during the 2009/10 Australian TC season.

[Cranica]

Great Rorschach Test image....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

I see a jumbo shrimp with a bad attitude. What do you see?

I see a flaming mermaid giving me the finger.

No, really. Check out the feeder band on the west side. Head turned to the left. Finger to the right. Anyone?

You have blown my mind

No way this isn't a hurricane at 11, nice to finally have a good classic hurricane to look at from the Atlantic this year.

[meriland23]

A degree of uncertainty must be present at the moment with regards any potential interplay between Lee (if it forms) and Katia.

If both systems got within about 1,400km of each other then the fujiwharra effect might become a factor. However this would require Katia to get west of 70W and for Lee to take a more Easterly track than models are currently forecasting.

Still will be interesting to watch. Anyone wanting to see a classic example of what this can do should look at the effect in action on TC's Neville and Olga during the 2009/10 Australian TC season.

To be honest, I would love to see a Fuji effect. I have never seen one before. Given I would not like the devestation that might come as a result, but it is a very rare weather phenom.

[meriland23]

Great Rorschach Test image....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

I see a jumbo shrimp with a bad attitude. What do you see?

I see a flaming mermaid giving me the finger.

No, really. Check out the feeder band on the west side. Head turned to the left. Finger to the right. Anyone?

I might be a little out of line here, but I cant resist, it looks like a fetus to me lol.

[Swimdude]

Great Rorschach Test image....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

I see a jumbo shrimp with a bad attitude. What do you see?

I see a flaming mermaid giving me the finger.

No, really. Check out the feeder band on the west side. Head turned to the left. Finger to the right. Anyone?

I might be a little out of line here, but I cant resist, it looks like a fetus to me lol.

I don't think that's out of line--a fetus and a strengthening tropical cyclone have many things in common!

- Newly born
- Wet
- People worry about it
- Developing eyes
- Scrupulously measured for size and--er--direction
- A beautiful thing to some--a thing of horror to others!

And so forth!