ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[capepoint]

Here's the latest run of the GFDL. Very eye opening to look at:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Still though, this storm hasn't formed so things can still change. Though if it followed that path it'd be a bit hard for it to recurve without hitting the east coast.

If that track pans out, I don't see how it avoids hitting somewhere along the east coast. Last frame looks to be 40-50 miles south south east of andros island. Almost have to come to a complete stop and head due north to miss SFL on that track

Storms can get quite close to a coastline and still miss them......2 storms that recurved at close proximity to the SE coast are 1999 dennis and Ophelia 2005

Both of those storms were a miss in name only. Both did millions of dollars of damage to the NC coast. Ophelia was by far the worst, we were in the western eyewall for hours because of the slow foreward movement. Was close enough that you could see the brighter sky of the eye just offshore, but still went into the books as a miss.

[HurricaneWarning92]

ITs also moving basically due west... its going through the central islands...

i see that too. That would make quite a shift west

[Mouton]

Right now, it is south of yesterday's GFDL and NOGAPS solutions which is probably so because we don't have a system YET. It is a wave moving west. Sometimes it has the face of an almost split system, something the GFS was forcasting to happen later in the cycle as the system approached Cuba (this was two days ago LR models) so perhaps it does just that except earlier, one energy pulse goes north west and one due west with the following system becomeing the dominent one.

I am sticking by my middle of the windwards, south of PR and into Hispanola solution as I don't believe this system gets picked up by the trough expected to form mid week.

Just the ramblings of a rank amateur and none of this should be considered more than a hysterical musing.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 91, 2011073112, , BEST, 0, 132N, 515W, 30, 1007, LO

[Aric Dunn]

Right now, it is south of yesterday's GFDL and NOGAPS solutions which is probably so because we don't have a system YET. It is a wave moving west. Sometimes it has the face of an almost split system, something the GFS was forcasting to happen later in the cycle as the system approached Cuba (this was two days ago LR models) so perhaps it does just that except earlier, one energy pulse goes north west and one due west with the following system becomeing the dominent one.

I am sticking by my middle of the windwards, south of PR and into Hispanola solution as I don't believe this system gets picked up by the trough expected to form mid week.

Just the ramblings of a rank amateur and none of this should be considered more than a hysterical musing.

I agree. the heights to the north are holding this morning. despite there being a weakness the system is not turning into it. since it is a TD and has been it should have responded to it. the 00z gfdl looks good at least up to hispanola, that is in line with the EURo. after hispanola is the big question. it all depends on intensity,

[Aric Dunn]

They need to shift the floater..

[Aric Dunn]

This thing is just weird looking... its like a binary TD lol

[srainhoutx]

Right now, it is south of yesterday's GFDL and NOGAPS solutions which is probably so because we don't have a system YET. It is a wave moving west. Sometimes it has the face of an almost split system, something the GFS was forcasting to happen later in the cycle as the system approached Cuba (this was two days ago LR models) so perhaps it does just that except earlier, one energy pulse goes north west and one due west with the following system becomeing the dominent one.

I am sticking by my middle of the windwards, south of PR and into Hispanola solution as I don't believe this system gets picked up by the trough expected to form mid week.

Just the ramblings of a rank amateur and none of this should be considered more than a hysterical musing.

I agree. the heights to the north are holding this morning. despite there being a weakness the system is not turning into it. since it is a TD and has been it should have responded to it. the 00z gfdl looks good at least up to hispanola, that is in line with the EURo. after hispanola is the big question. it all depends on intensity,

Did I miss something? I see no 'official' indication anywhere that 91L is currently classified as a TD or has been.

[Aric Dunn]

I have a funny thought.. if the system literally splits,,,,, then do we call the other emily's sister.... if they both develop.. lol

[Aric Dunn]

Right now, it is south of yesterday's GFDL and NOGAPS solutions which is probably so because we don't have a system YET. It is a wave moving west. Sometimes it has the face of an almost split system, something the GFS was forcasting to happen later in the cycle as the system approached Cuba (this was two days ago LR models) so perhaps it does just that except earlier, one energy pulse goes north west and one due west with the following system becomeing the dominent one.

I am sticking by my middle of the windwards, south of PR and into Hispanola solution as I don't believe this system gets picked up by the trough expected to form mid week.

Just the ramblings of a rank amateur and none of this should be considered more than a hysterical musing.

I agree. the heights to the north are holding this morning. despite there being a weakness the system is not turning into it. since it is a TD and has been it should have responded to it. the 00z gfdl looks good at least up to hispanola, that is in line with the EURo. after hispanola is the big question. it all depends on intensity,

Did I miss something? I see no 'official' indication anywhere that 91L is currently classified as a TD or has been.

it was technically speaking... sorry. winds are there circ is there ....

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 311259
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1259 UTC SUN JUL 31 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110731 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110731  1200   110801  0000   110801  1200   110802  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.2N  51.5W   14.0N  53.9W   14.4N  56.4W   15.0N  58.8W
BAMD    13.2N  51.5W   13.9N  53.9W   14.3N  56.1W   14.7N  58.2W
BAMM    13.2N  51.5W   13.9N  53.8W   14.1N  56.0W   14.5N  58.2W
LBAR    13.2N  51.5W   13.9N  54.0W   14.5N  56.5W   14.9N  59.0W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          46KTS          57KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          46KTS          57KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110802  1200   110803  1200   110804  1200   110805  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.5N  61.1W   17.2N  65.6W   19.1N  70.1W   20.8N  73.3W
BAMD    15.2N  60.2W   16.8N  63.9W   19.4N  67.5W   21.6N  70.3W
BAMM    15.0N  60.4W   16.7N  64.6W   18.9N  68.3W   21.0N  71.2W
LBAR    15.3N  61.4W   17.3N  65.9W   20.7N  69.4W   24.2N  71.4W
SHIP        66KTS          82KTS          82KTS          81KTS
DSHP        66KTS          82KTS          76KTS          76KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  13.2N LONCUR =  51.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  12.7N LONM12 =  49.1W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  12KT
LATM24 =  12.0N LONM24 =  46.8W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE AND
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY
TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE LATER TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

that's pretty clear now... friends in the islands let's continue to track 91L very closely.

[cycloneye]

LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 51.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

[Macrocane]

It's still doesn't look like a depression to me at least not a well organized one, it looks elongated, the rainbands doesn't wrap around the center and convection could be better. Anyway I think that the RECON will find a TD. That is my unofficial and personal opinion.

[JTE50]

This thing is just weird looking... its like a binary TD lol

it's still got some organizing to do no doubt.

[BobHarlem]

It's still doesn't look like a depression to me at least not a well organized one, it looks elongated, the rainbands doesn't wrap around the center and convection could be better. Anyway I think that the RECON will find a TD. That is my unofficial and personal opinion.

It looks more like two depressions to me than one single one, but really still just a mess.

[knotimpaired]

Luis,

Have you seen Google earth for 91L? They have taken all of the models off with the exception of one that goes straight the the Virgin Islands

[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion by Rob of Crown Weather Services.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[Evil Jeremy]

It doesn't need to look like a pretty TD, just a TD, and it looks like its there. I hope the NHC doesn't wait until recon, because unless they issue a special advisory, the next opportunity is 5pm, at the end of the day when stores are closing, so a missed day to prepare in the islands.

[Aric Dunn]

watch this thing just start splitting... very strange..