ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[MGC]

What a mess it is down in the GOM tonight. TD-13 is going to have a hard time going with all the shear over it. With the tropics, anything is possible so perhaps the center could reform closer to the convection. We will have to wait for the next recon to answer that question.....MGC

[CYCLONE MIKE]

In about three hours,recon will have the answer to the question of where is the LLC.

Wish I could stay up for that but have get up early for work, hopefully Should be interesting though.

[indian]

cantore just mentioned its a good possibility the center could reform south??????

[BigB0882]

From KFDM 6 Chief Met (Beaumont TX) Greg Bostwick:

System in the Gulf should become a tropical storm by daybreak Friday. Slow motion to the northwest expected with the storm likely stalling to our southeast Saturday about 150 miles offshore. Eventual landfall is expected to our east Sunday night into Monday as a possible hurricane. Locally we should be on the dry side with winds likely to not exceed 30-40 mph on the coast. Another update around sunrise Friday.

Did he say where it would go inland?

Since he mentioned it stalling 150 miles off the coast and going inland East, I would assume he is thinking central LA or where NHC is currently showing.

BTW, I think NHC is too early with landfall. Is there even one single model showing landfall that early? NAM maybe but NAM was further West so they clearly aren't going with that completely.

[ROCK]

man the more I look at this the more I think it has reformed south where the heaviest convection is.......oh man...if that happened then all these models are junk as they initialized wrong......

13L either had multiple centers at one time and the southern one took over or I am so seeing things.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

[Frank P]

From KFDM 6 Chief Met (Beaumont TX) Greg Bostwick:

System in the Gulf should become a tropical storm by daybreak Friday. Slow motion to the northwest expected with the storm likely stalling to our southeast Saturday about 150 miles offshore. Eventual landfall is expected to our east Sunday night into Monday as a possible hurricane. Locally we should be on the dry side with winds likely to not exceed 30-40 mph on the coast. Another update around sunrise Friday.

Did he say where it would go inland?

Since he mentioned it stalling 150 off the coast and going inland East, I would assume he is think central LA or where NHC is currently showing.

BTW, I think NHC is too early with landfall. Is there even one single model showing landfall that early? NAM maybe but NAM was further West so they clearly aren't going with that completely.

thanks.. I think NHC is too early also... but hey, they are the best at what they do.. not an exact science for sure.. center reformation certainly would change a bunch of things... quite breezy on the beach tonight.. looking forward to what mother nature brings tomorrow and later in the weekend...

[ROCK]

this is going to screw some things up if I am seeing this right.....I mean I saw some voricity down there in that area earlier today but didnt think much of it.....holy crap... hopes of rain is all well and good but a major in the GOM is very bad...

wheres IVAN?

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING VERY SLOWLY...EXPECTED TO DRENCH
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H.
A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING...NEW BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE
DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS AND RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT KEEPING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE OVERNIGHT. A SHEAR ANALYSIS
FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION...STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 315/2 KT. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS
STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER COULD REFORM WITHIN THE
LARGE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS POSSIBILITY
IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...WHICH SHOWS THE CENTER REFORMING FARTHER
NORTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD...IT SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
THEN NORTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWS LITTLE
OVERALL MOTION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS IS LIKELY
TO PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 26.6N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 27.5N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 28.0N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 28.6N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 29.2N 92.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 29.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 06/0000Z 30.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/0000Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[Stormcenter]

So much for the center reforming south per the NHC. Though the NHC thinks it may reform further north.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011

ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS
CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING...NEW BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE
DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS AND RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT KEEPING THE
INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE OVERNIGHT. A SHEAR ANALYSIS
FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE GULF. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION...STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.

THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 315/2 KT. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS
STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER COULD REFORM WITHIN THE
LARGE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS POSSIBILITY
IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...WHICH SHOWS THE CENTER REFORMING FARTHER
NORTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WEAK DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION REMAINS TO THE
SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EASTWARD...IT SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
THEN NORTHEASTWARD. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWS LITTLE
OVERALL MOTION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND EAST OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS IS LIKELY
TO PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 26.6N 91.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 27.5N 92.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 28.0N 92.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 28.6N 92.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 29.2N 92.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 29.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 06/0000Z 30.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/0000Z 31.5N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[CYCLONE MIKE]

man the more I look at this the more I think it has reformed south where the heaviest convection is.......oh man...if that happened then all these models are junk as they initialized wrong......

13L either had multiple centers at one time and the southern one took over or I am so seeing things.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

Its addicting isnt it I have been looking at that area all evening thinking the same thing. I'm not even sure there is an llc left around 92w thanks to the ull in LA.

[Javlin]

cantore just mentioned its a good possibility the center could reform south??????

Well we have seen it a few times thus this season one more not going to hurt is it?I think it's definitly a possibilty it's amazing there are no bouys in that direct vicinity

[Wx_Warrior]

Mountains out of molehills. Let the pro's do their jobs.

[Frank P]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

well NHC has not bought in the relocation idea, yet.. bring on recon.. 2 mph, this thing IS NOT MOVING much at all..

[ROCK]

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 91.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

based on RECON from earlier no doubt,,,,somebody find me a obs down there in the south GOM....

[Stormcenter]

Yep.

Mountains out of molehills. Let the pro's do their jobs.

[stormhunter7]

haha! i posted a bit ago, i thought it slowed or even stalled... ! 2kts is just a guess without recon... Sound like they think it will reform more to the north... hmmmm

[ajurcat]

man the more I look at this the more I think it has reformed south where the heaviest convection is.......oh man...if that happened then all these models are junk as they initialized wrong......

13L either had multiple centers at one time and the southern one took over or I am so seeing things.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html

Its addicting isnt it I have been looking at that area all evening thinking the same thing. I'm not even sure there is an llc left around 92w thanks to the ull in LA.

So what are your thoughts????

[Portastorm]

I wouldn't think NHC would relocate the center without confirmation from a NOAA flight and real observations.

They do indicate in the forecast discussion that a center relocation is quite possible in the next 24 hours and that this system is going to move very slowly.

[Turtle]

Like i said LLCs like to migrate to the lowest pressure ie being under strongest convection....

I cant tell if a center reformed more south but if it has then you can throw about all the models you see tonight out the window....

If it has, which direction could the system move? West?

The new NAM doesn't look good for Texas. I think the extreme SE corner gets 1-2", while most of the state is .10" or less.