ATL: KATIA - Post Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I'm still concerned that the GFS doesn't have a good grip on the synoptic pattern past 170 hours. Combine that with the fact that "Lee" in the GOM may be throwing a wrench into everything. Nothing is moving much at all from 168 hours and beyond. And then the movement north of Katia looks suspect because it appears to drive it into a ridge to the north. I'm totally confused and lost now. Like I said yesterday, I think we need to wait till Thursday, probably late to get a better handle on the setup. In fact, Thursday may be too soon and we may need to come back and look at the models closer to Saturday or Sunday.

SFT

SFT, I think the last part of your closing sentence is when I am inclined to agree with you. I hope by Saturday we will have better indications and agreement with the models as to how Katia will be intensity wise and where she ends up enventually.

[northjaxpro]

I'm still concerned that the GFS doesn't have a good grip on the synoptic pattern past 170 hours. Combine that with the fact that "Lee" in the GOM may be throwing a wrench into everything. Nothing is moving much at all from 168 hours and beyond. And then the movement north of Katia looks suspect because it appears to drive it into a ridge to the north. I'm totally confused and lost now. Like I said yesterday, I think we need to wait till Thursday, probably late to get a better handle on the setup. In fact, Thursday may be too soon and we may need to come back and look at the models closer to Saturday or Sunday.

SFT

SFT, I think the last part of your closing sentence is when I am inclined to agree with you. I hope by Saturday we will have better indications and agreement with the models as to how Katia will be intensity wise and where she ends up eventually.

[Raebie]

Tell me this isn't a hurricane.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Tell me this isn't a hurricane.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html

I vote Fetus

[Raebie]

Lol Exactly.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Yeah on the 168 GFS that setup looks bogus. But hey it's the GFS 168 hrs out. Need to watch for trends starting sat. Still likely a recurve before se coast either way. Less likely but possible is the high builds back some and a possible Lee is the spoiler and pulls Kat in before a recurve.

[meriland23]

I know it is only the NOGAPS, but take a look at the 18Z run @ 180hr. Heading WNW toward the SE Coast.....

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/708/180i.gif/]http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/6134/180i.gif

Crickey! That is quite the model there, colors are excruciatingly dark.. well lets hope that does not pan out.

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 18z HWRF has a pronounced bend to the west at the end while the 18z GFDL is more WNW

[Buck]

Katia does love that fetal position look. I noticed it a couple of days ago but now she's really working it.

[Aric Dunn]

Latest microwave:

I was about to post a different microwave image... but she was clearly a hurricane earlier.. but there should be no doubt now.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Looks like an alien fetus from that movie Alien.


Perfect Comma Shape. I would expect upgrade soon.

[HurricaneWarning92]

whos staying up till the 00z EURO? i think i will, even though i have class tomorrow...

[cycloneye]

SSD dvorak agrees.

31/2345 UTC 15.0N 43.4W T4.0/4.0 KATIA -- Atlantic

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, these microwave images confirms it for me. This is a hurricane. Nice closed eyewall on the imagery.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah I would say 65 kt at advisory for my guess.

[mf_dolphin]

Hate to be picky but it's not a hurricane until the NHC says so. Let's try to be accurate folks.

[KWT]

Yep I agree, I think its highly likely that Katia gets upgraded to hurricane status very soon.

[Raebie]

I just said tell me it's not.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Agrees with SSD dvorak on a 65kt hurricane.

AL, 12, 2011090100, , BEST, 0, 148N, 436W, 65, 987, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest