ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[TexWx]

Stormcenter.

It was just a personal opinion, but funny someone brought up Allen.
I was 7 at the time, I remember evacuating for that to Somerville, but the death ridge kept it down south.

[Nikki]

not to beat a dead horse but if this does become a hurricane this close to the US mainland without any media coverage then someone is going have some egg on their face....Here in Galveston no one has a clue whats brewing....

I agree Rock! It is unbelievable the amount of people who had no idea 90L had even been tagged...this is not a time for complacency for anyone living on the coast...be it in Texas or beyond!

[Tireman4]

Stormcenter.

It was just a personal opinion, but funny someone brought up Allen.
I was 7 at the time, I remember evacuating for that to Somerville, but the death ridge kept it down south.

I was 15 and we evacuated to Diboll. After that HORRIBLE road trip ( 8 hours I think), my father swore, never again and we did not. We rode out Alicia at my grandma's in Texas City.

[ROCK]

not to beat a dead horse but if this does become a hurricane this close to the US mainland without any media coverage then someone is going have some egg on their face....Here in Galveston no one has a clue whats brewing....

I realize that Galveston and Houston are two distinct media markets ... but the Houston Chronicle science writer, Eric Berger, did blog this afternoon about 90L.

My mom lives on the beach on the west end. I have been visiting...no blogs down here though and no news coverage....

[Nikki]

Stormcenter.

It was just a personal opinion, but funny someone brought up Allen.
I was 7 at the time, I remember evacuating for that to Somerville, but the death ridge kept it down south.

I was 15 and we evacuated to Diboll. After that HORRIBLE road trip ( 8 hours I think), my father swore, never again and we did not. We rode out Alicia at my grandma's in Texas City.

Tireman I rode Alicia out in Texas City too! I was 11.

[Stormcenter]

Not surprised the models have shifted northward.

[ROCK]

Stormcenter.

It was just a personal opinion, but funny someone brought up Allen.
I was 7 at the time, I remember evacuating for that to Somerville, but the death ridge kept it down south.

I was 15 and we evacuated to Diboll. After that HORRIBLE road trip ( 8 hours I think), my father swore, never again and we did not. We rode out Alicia at my grandma's in Texas City.

Tireman I rode Alicia out in Texas City too! I was 11.

ok the whole Texas City thing is getting creepy....you guys need to talk off line...

[KWT]

I agree Rock! It is unbelievable the amount of people who had no idea 90L had even been tagged...this is not a time for complacency for anyone living on the coast...be it in Texas or beyond!

To be fair, the NHC themselves gave this a ear 0% chance of development in the next 48hrs not so long ago, can't really blame the media for not mentioning it when the NHC were expecting no development.

[ROCK]

Not surprised the models have shifted northward.

with the NW jog they should.....now is the ridge stout enough to keep 90L into STX..or is the timing off just enough to allow it to creep up into LA....all we can do is wait on the models...

[RachelAnna]

It is a bit concerning that there has not been mention of it in mainstream media. But to be fair, there is a careful balance. If you say too little people aren't prepared as they would have liked (well, except for those of us who do prepare) but if you say anything at all about a possibility people lose their minds and start clearing the grocery store shelves and filling tanks full of gasoline. I think at this point there is enough uncertainty about it that maybe it is too soon, but if things are still looking like this tonight/tomorrow information needs to be put out to the masses--atleast mention the storm and its latest developments. I know in my area no one that I know of has any idea that there is even anything out there, and while it *probably* won't affect the Houston area, by tomorrow I think everyone along the Gulf coast should be made aware of the storm...even if it is only projected to be a TS or Cat 1 at landfall.

[Nikki]

I agree Rock! It is unbelievable the amount of people who had no idea 90L had even been tagged...this is not a time for complacency for anyone living on the coast...be it in Texas or beyond!

To be fair, the NHC themselves gave this a ear 0% chance of development in the next 48hrs not so long ago, can't really blame the media for not mentioning it when the NHC were expecting no development.

My apologies you are right.

[cycloneye]

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GULF IS BEING SQUEEZED FROM
THE SE BY APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIB...AND WILL
DRIFT NE AND COLLAPSE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WAVE ENTERS THE SE GULF.
WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEPICTED ACROSS THE BASIN THIS MORNING BY
SCATTEROMETER PASSES...WITH S TO SWLY FLOW NEAR 15 KT ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED CONVECTION SINKING INTO NE WATERS ATTM
AHEAD OF TROUGH STRUNG OUT ALONG N GULF COAST STATES...WITH THIS
WEATHER EXPECTED TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH WED. TROPICAL WAVE
OVER NW CARIB HAS FLARED TODAY UNDERNEATH AN OLD TUTT SEGMENT
THAT HAS PINCHED OFF. MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL WNW MOTION OF
WAVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND S CENTRAL GULF WED AND THEN SLOWLY
ACROSS THE W GULF THU AND FRI. SURFACE REFLECTION OF WAVE NOT AN
ELONGATING INVERTED TROUGH AND MAY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED IN WRN
GULF AS PER GFS SOLUTION. WITH LIGHT ELY SHEAR ALOFT FORECAST
NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR BETTER ORGANIZATION OF
THIS WAVE AS MAIN ENERGY MOVES TOWARDS UPPER MEXICO AND S TEXAS.

[Frank2]

I'm guessing that they may have to bump up the tasking to 12Z tomorrow morning if the system continues to organize - perhaps NOAA might task something as well...

Frank

[Flyinman]

Just my observation. I was at the Beach (Bolivar) last week thru Sunday. The water was very rough every day. Waves were not that high but just constant even early in the morning. Growing up near the Coast, you can usually tell when something is brewing as the waves never let up. I would not have mentioned this except for the fact Sunday morning there was a light South wind and it was just as rough as the other days. Again just my two cents from watching the water. Guess we will see what happens next.

[plasticup]

not to beat a dead horse but if this does become a hurricane this close to the US mainland without any media coverage then someone is going have some egg on their face....Here in Galveston no one has a clue whats brewing....

Why? This system is days away from Texas. If it becomes even a Tropical Depression you know the media will saturate coverage with it. But right now, why should they? This is a Invest that may become a Tropical Storm that may become a hurricane that may reach the US mainland. That is hardly something to get worked up over.

I am a big fan of the media limiting its wild speculation on all kinds of issues, but existential threats in particular. If they reported on every Invest the population would be fatigued in weeks and wouldn't respond when a serious threat emerged.

[RL3AO]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If I lived near the coast in Texas, especially south Texas, I would be doing some preparations for a category 2 hurricane within 4 days. >95% chance it will be an overreaction but if its not, you'll have a jump start over everyone else.

[ROCK]

I'm guessing that they may have to bump up the tasking to 12Z tomorrow morning if the system continues to organize - perhaps NOAA might task something as well...

Frank

good call Frank....I would hope they run some flights up head to get some soundings....

Need more RECON!!!

[BigB0882]

I've warned my mother in Beaumont to keep an eye on it. I know they are far enough North to be less likely to get this but I wanted them to at least know something was brewing. I am not sure if she took my advice but hopefully this wont be anything too major, no matter where it goes.

[KWT]

If I lived near the coast in Texas, especially south Texas, I would be doing some preparations for a category 2 hurricane within 4 days. >95% chance it will be an overreaction but if its not, you'll have a jump start over everyone else.

Given Dolly managed that, its certainly reasonable that people should be prepared for that sort of system...mind you I do think Dolly's conditions aloft were a little better.

[crazy4disney]

yes. it would at the least shift the track north a couple hundred miles further up the Texas coast. if it gets far enough north it could make it to the northern gulf coast. the weakness is still well pronounced to its north and is why we are seeing this motion today if the trough along the N gulf coast hangs around longer than we will see a shift in models

That will be our luck... it will end up arcing right past us and we'll be on the subsidence side, and it will somehow be even *hotter* and drier here... Not that the folks east of us don't need the rain just as bad, but I have to wish for some of that to fall here!

-gina-