ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking at his-res visible loops I can finally start to see some slight westerly inflow into the suspect area SW of the Isle of Youth. I think we might have all systems go here. Low level rotation has continued to improve throughout the day.

[hicksta]

This system could explode once it enters the gulf... Could be interesting.

[TwisterFanatic]

Quite a bit of a shift north with those 18z tracks also with added uncertainty with a good spread there.

[ROCK]

18z Tracks

Those in Texas who want a system that brings plenty of rain to aliviate the drought there,may get their wish. But with that,the wind factor may be there too.

those ensembles are creeping north....hope they dont creep past New Orleans or I might have to buy Ivan a shiner...or 5.....oh wait cranberry vodkas...

[Ivanhater]

I'm not worried Rock, but I would be if I were you

Looks like another one coming down the pike into the Caribbean in a few days btw

[Aric Dunn]

Not surprised to see this more NW motion. looking at the low level steering it should head NW for another 12 to 18 hours then the steering gets weak again. That trough over the northern gulf seems to be stronger than it was suppsoed to be leaving a decent weakness in the ridge. if it gets too far north then the northern gulf coast might have to watch it more

[Ivanhater]

He's blowing up right over our (possible) LLC we found!

[Weatherfreak000]

Great time to be a weather enthusiast IMO. Might get our first hurricane landfall in a good while it seems

[cycloneye]

Finnally!! we have the SSD floater.

[Aric Dunn]

Finnally!! we have the SSD floater.

[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg[/mg]

[img]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg[/ig]

About time !! geez

[SunnyThoughts]

Looks like you guys were spot on with that location. Lets hope he doesn't get too strong and only brings much needed rain to areas that need it badly. And please pleaseeeeee let us dodge any bullets until after 8/20 in P'cola. So much time and $$ invested in daughters wedding on the beach on that date.

[ROCK]

He's blowing up right over our (possible) LLC we found!

thats it....and its only going to ramp up even more sitting over 88F water with light shear....

[TwisterFanatic]

About time they got a Floater on this thing, Geez.

[plasticup]

Looks like you guys were spot on with that location. Lets hope he doesn't get too strong and only brings much needed rain to areas that need it badly. And please pleaseeeeee let us dodge any bullets until after 8/20 in P'cola. So much time and $$ invested in daughters wedding on the beach on that date.

Global models are only showing a TS or weak Cat 1 at this point. This could be the drought-buster that everyone has been looking for.

[KWT]

Right now its going through abit of a waning session, though unlike previous times it is still bursting convection. Feeder band isn't as stromng as it was earlier on as we all know these things go up and down over the course of a day.

[RachelAnna]

Looks like it may be moving in a more NW direction than originally thought. Any guesses on whether this will significantly change where this could make landfall?

[ROCK]

not to beat a dead horse but if this does become a hurricane this close to the US mainland without any media coverage then someone is going have some egg on their face....Here in Galveston no one has a clue whats brewing....

[Tireman4]

not to beat a dead horse but if this does become a hurricane this close to the US mainland without any media coverage then someone is going have some egg on their face....Here in Galveston no one has a clue whats brewing....

Oh now Rock, you know that will change....LOL....

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it may be moving in a more NW direction than originally thought. Any guesses on whether this will significantly change where this could make landfall?

yes. it would at the least shift the track north a couple hundred miles further up the Texas coast. if it gets far enough north it could make it to the northern gulf coast. the weakness is still well pronounced to its north and is why we are seeing this motion today if the trough along the N gulf coast hangs around longer than we will see a shift in models

[Portastorm]

not to beat a dead horse but if this does become a hurricane this close to the US mainland without any media coverage then someone is going have some egg on their face....Here in Galveston no one has a clue whats brewing....

I realize that Galveston and Houston are two distinct media markets ... but the Houston Chronicle science writer, Eric Berger, did blog this afternoon about 90L.