ATL: IRENE - Models

[Steve H.]

Use the CMC with caution. Remember that's where winter goes when ti's summer down here!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Hey Mike, what is the CMC seeing or not that is sending this so much further south and west? More dominant high or no trough dropping down east coast? More than likely it will probably come around to the GFS/Euro solutions but then swing back west like I think most model runs will come sunday or early next week.

[FireRat]

There's the saying "Timing is Everything", and the moment the future system will make its turn will determine whether Florida or the Gulf states are the final destination of future Irene/Jose. I have a personal belief the 27th of August could prove important, I'd dare say the destination of the future storm will be the place that can get hit on this particular date or right next to it (26th-28th). Timing could really be everything.
I'm gonna take this one with a wait and see attitude, and if we have a storm by the 22nd hitting the islands and a landfall seems imminent on the U.S. on the 27th...then I would be alarmed.

This is just my honest opinion on the future of the storm, so here's the disclaimer just in case

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ivanhater]

00Z Canadian hits New Orleans

[maxintensity]

can you post the cmc new orleans pic

[bigdan35]

00z nogaps
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

00Z Canadian hits New Orleans

ha ...nice call earlier...

[weatherguy2]

00z CMC:

[bigdan35]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... fLoop.html

[ROCK]

new CMC vs GFS.....hmmmm....2nd run in a row for the CMC.....GFDL was south also....

I am smelling something.....

[hurricanetrack]

Seen the HWRF? 134 knots at 900 mb south of Hispaniola. That is not good for that region.

[SFLcane]

new CMC vs GFS.....hmmmm....2nd run in a row for the CMC.....GFDL was south also....

I am smelling something.....

GFDL doesn't develope it for some reason but it will come around. Nothing reallly to smell here BUT another weeks worth of runs.

[hurricanetrack]

That is to say, 134 knots at the 900mb level of the atmosphere....

[ROCK]

new CMC vs GFS.....hmmmm....2nd run in a row for the CMC.....GFDL was south also....

I am smelling something.....

GFDL doesn't develope it for some reason but it will come around. Nothing reallly to smell here BUT another weeks worth of runs.

neither does the CMC until further into the Carib....18Z GDFL did the same....

[SFLcane]

That is to say, 134 knots at the 900mb level of the atmosphere....

[Ivanhater]

Euro to 60- weak low/open wave headed to Hispaniola

[psyclone]

Seen the HWRF? 134 knots at 900 mb south of Hispaniola. That is not good for that region.

hwrf pumps out cat 4 and fives on a frequent basis.

[ROCK]

That is to say, 134 knots at the 900mb level of the atmosphere....

that doesnt sniff right.. ..up the entire spine of the islands and intensifies the whole way....nice...


HWRF notorious for being the right outlier and intensity happy...

[StarmanHDB]

new CMC vs GFS.....hmmmm....2nd run in a row for the CMC.....GFDL was south also....

I am smelling something.....

GFDL doesn't develope it for some reason but it will come around. Nothing reallly to smell here BUT another weeks worth of runs.

NICE!

[Ivanhater]

Euro 72 hours...still not consolidated