ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[cycloneye]

And actually the system seems to be being influenced by the boundary to its NE and has taken a more NW motion this afternoon and it could be that the Southern gulf will see cyclogenisis... I mentioned it earlier but near the isle of youth seems the be the most vorticity in the low levels and its heading NW

Moving at 295 degrees.

Code: Select all

LATCUR =  20.9N LONCUR =  83.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =

[Ivanhater]

It is lifting more to the NW it seems

[ronjon]

Since we've all been discussing where the LLC will form, here's the 12z GFS location. I'm posting this here rather than the model forum since we're talking about a possible center location.

[Stormcenter]

It almost "looks" like it can't avoid crossing the tip of Cuba. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

And actually the system seems to be being influenced by the boundary to its NE and has taken a more NW motion this afternoon and it could be that the Southern gulf will see cyclogenisis... I mentioned it earlier but near the isle of youth seems the be the most vorticity in the low levels and its heading NW

[wxman57]

Wx, our ridge being parked, what would allow this "possibly as far north as Matagorda."

Thanks in advance.

Ridge isn't "parked". All models move it to the Carolinas or just off the East U.S. Coast by Thursday evening.

[Sanibel]

Oh yeah, here we go. You can tell that thing has finally activated from the energetic spin. We should get a good radar of the inner core as it passes by Cancun in the Channel. Formation is right on time like magic in the west Carribean. It has been showery here today with clouds and thick humidity like storm plasma. I think we all know what it's about to do.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

And actually the system seems to be being influenced by the boundary to its NE and has taken a more NW motion this afternoon and it could be that the Southern gulf will see cyclogenisis... I mentioned it earlier but near the isle of youth seems the be the most vorticity in the low levels and its heading NW

Moving at 295 degrees.

Code: Select all

LATCUR =  20.9N LONCUR =  83.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =

yeah but that is for the 18z position estimate and is WNW its more 305 . its easy to see that there is nothing note worthy in that area and the MLC and convection should be used which is farther to the north. if we are going to see a distinct LLC it will be with convection. only time will tell though.

[crimi481]

Based on last systems in similar position - My money is on a N.W. Track - into the shear around the circlular high over mid west. Breaks up - gets entrained around outer part of High's circle - causing larger land storms in mid west.
Only supporting data I have is the pattern over last 2 years. NHC does not seem to have handle
Just gut feeling - nothing else

[ronjon]

12z GFS - not surprising the GFDL goes to the same location.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Cuband Radar Loop:

[MGC]

I don't need no stinking NW track.....MGC

[Ivanhater]

LLC appears to be right under the blow up of storms just to the SW of the Isle of Youth....based on visible rapid scan, not this loop

[BigA]

Here's the link to the Cuba radar http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... p200Km.gif

Edit: Wow, radar was already posted!

Hard to determine anything definite, but if an LLC is in the process of forming, its probably southwest of the Isle of Youth.

[Aric Dunn]

THis is the are that shows the most low level turning and doing some cloud tracks. indicates that a LLC maybe developing here and is heading 300 to 305.

[cycloneye]

18z Tracks

Those in Texas who want a system that brings plenty of rain to aliviate the drought there,may get their wish. But with that,the wind factor may be there too.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[Sanibel]

About right Aric. Maybe a touch north according to radar.

[tolakram]

Aric,

you're running 10 to 15 posts behind.

Zoom 2 loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

Do I see outflow channels setting up? High pressure forming on top of it?

[HurricaneWarning92]

It almost "looks" like it can't avoid crossing the tip of Cuba. IMO


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

And actually the system seems to be being influenced by the boundary to its NE and has taken a more NW motion this afternoon and it could be that the Southern gulf will see cyclogenisis... I mentioned it earlier but near the isle of youth seems the be the most vorticity in the low levels and its heading NW

Yeah, it looks like it will just clip the western tip of Cuba, as it's heading in a more NW track.

[ronjon]

12z NOGAPs - Tx/La Border area.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=prp&dtg=2011072612&set=Tropical

[ROCK]

that NE vortex around the main one looks to be dying out... the main one is finally taking over IMO...