ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

To the person who mentioned the 60kts of shear to the north, ist currently in a position thats works as an poleward outflow channel, which is a good thing for development of a significant system maybe even a hurricane in the long run


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[clfenwi]

12Z GFDL wind swath



Loop

[gatorcane]

GFDL beelines this west-northwest towards the northern Leewards and Puerto Rico

[cycloneye]

12Z GFDL wind swath

http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/7476/09051200gfdl.png

Loop

Yeah,ends at my doorsteps. But is early.

[hurricaneCW]

This one may affect the islands if anything for sure, looks far more threatening than Katia ever did.

[KWT]

The key thing that worries me greatly is the fact that Katia should help enhance tyhe upper high over Bermuda at pretty much the same time as future Maria gets to 50-60W.

Models aren't that agressive so could be a qwuick former followed by a system that struggles for a while, which IMO would make it a big risk for the SE states and the Caribbean in general down the line.

[SuperLikeNintendo]

Looks to me like she wants to die.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD Special Feature:

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR
9N29W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 26W-35W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS

[cycloneye]

Looks to me like she wants to die.

What do you mean?

[SuperLikeNintendo]

12Z GFDL wind swath

http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/7476/09051200gfdl.png

Loop

There's not a whole lot of strength building there. The IR models picking up something others are missing maybe?

Again. most of the time I have no clue what I'm talking about, this is just an observation.

[SeminoleWind]

i dont know why, no synoptic reasoning behind this, but i just get a funny fealing about 95L and its future impacts on the SE US coast.Mainly Florida

[Blown Away]

When CV systems develop this far E and track westerly across the Atlantic and don't recurve before the islands, they usually become legendary!

[cycloneye]

Note= Those members who want to reply with a image posted please take the img tag off and by doing that it does not cluter the board,thanks for your cooperation.

[KWT]

There's not a whole lot of strength building there. The IR models picking up something others are missing maybe?

Again. most of the time I have no clue what I'm talking about, this is just an observation.

Yeah not that agressive, and to be fair the global models domn't see all that much short term strengthening either, so may well be one of those storms that struggles for a bit down the road in the vast central Atlantic.

[KWT]

My gut is this one has a shot at being a threat, Katia should at least allow for weak strengthening of the Bermuda High as it exits stage right which means this system probably won't gain too much latitude once it gets to 60W.

Then it really does all depend on the set-up aloft and how that upper trough over the E.states evolves.

[clfenwi]

12Z UKMET picks it up... Final position (144h) is ~ 125 miles south of the southwestern tip of Puerto Rico.

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.09.2011

...

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 10.7N 46.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 08.09.2011 10.7N 46.4W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2011 10.8N 50.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2011 11.8N 53.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2011 12.8N 57.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2011 13.4N 61.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2011 14.6N 64.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2011 16.0N 67.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[KWT]

Takes a while for the models to pick it up, esp given right now it sorta looks like its well on its way to forming...

[gatorcane]

12z euro a touch south of the 12z GFS throng 96 hours with a low approaching the central Leewards

[ROCK]

at 120H low is moving through the leewards right down the middle


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

[ROCK]

i dont know why, no synoptic reasoning behind this, but i just get a funny fealing about 95L and its future impacts on the SE US coast.Mainly Florida

yeah,,,,my gut tells me this will become a drought buster for Texas....