WPAC: NOCK-TEN (Juaning) - Tropical Depression
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ManilaTC
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm
Reports from Albay Province (where Mt Mayon is) say that a month's rain has fallen in a day.
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm
ClarkEligue wrote:
Its not KETSANA its gonna be going the same track as CONSON/BASYANG!
PAGASA killer hahaha
Lol sort of but it seems there will be no Conson scenario right here.
And I thought Conson went near south of NCR...oh well I remember how much infuriated I am when PAGASA kept on saying that the typhoon will go north when it was only some matter of time before it hit Manila. Good to see that the convection is waning down a bit, might be only sudden but let's see if intense convection will recur.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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oaba09
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significant change in the JTWC track:
WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 123.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.3N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.2N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.2N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.8N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.8N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 123.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEPTH AROUND ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION
EVEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN LUZON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND TRIANGULATED FROM NEARBY OBSERVATIONS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY SAME
OBSERVATIONS AND BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
STORM IS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A TROUGH THAT IS HAVING A
SUBSIDENT EFFECT OVER THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A
RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THESE
DYNAMICS ARE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-2O KTS). TS 10W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THIS TRACK AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LEGASPI CITY, THEN DRAGS
OVER ROUGH TERRAIN JUST NORTH OF MANILA, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY REINTENSIFY
OVER WARM WATERS AND FAVORABLE VWS BEFORE MAKING A SECONDARY
LANDFALL - THIS TIME OVER HAINAN AFTER TAU 72. TS NOCK-TEN WILL
MOMENTARILY INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS THAT IS ERRONEOUSLY
DEFLECTING THE VORTEX NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 123.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.3N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.2N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.2N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.8N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.8N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 123.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEPTH AROUND ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION
EVEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN LUZON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND TRIANGULATED FROM NEARBY OBSERVATIONS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY SAME
OBSERVATIONS AND BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
STORM IS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A TROUGH THAT IS HAVING A
SUBSIDENT EFFECT OVER THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A
RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THESE
DYNAMICS ARE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-2O KTS). TS 10W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THIS TRACK AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LEGASPI CITY, THEN DRAGS
OVER ROUGH TERRAIN JUST NORTH OF MANILA, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY REINTENSIFY
OVER WARM WATERS AND FAVORABLE VWS BEFORE MAKING A SECONDARY
LANDFALL - THIS TIME OVER HAINAN AFTER TAU 72. TS NOCK-TEN WILL
MOMENTARILY INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS THAT IS ERRONEOUSLY
DEFLECTING THE VORTEX NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm
And a tight curved banding on it is noticeable though.
Question, guys...when will the center of the storm be at its closest to Manila?
Question, guys...when will the center of the storm be at its closest to Manila?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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oaba09
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- Contact:
Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm
dexterlabio wrote:And a tight curved banding on it is noticeable though.
Question, guys...when will the center of the storm be at its closest to Manila?
based on the jtwc track, I'm guessing around dawn....
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3408
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re:
oaba09 wrote:significant change in the JTWC track:
WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 123.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 123.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 14.5N 122.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.3N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 16.2N 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.2N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 18.8N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 19.8N 109.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.8N 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 123.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 137 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEPTH AROUND ITS CENTRAL CONVECTION
EVEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN LUZON. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND TRIANGULATED FROM NEARBY OBSERVATIONS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY SAME
OBSERVATIONS AND BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
STORM IS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A TROUGH THAT IS HAVING A
SUBSIDENT EFFECT OVER THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, A
RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH IS ENHANCING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THESE
DYNAMICS ARE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES ARE LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-2O KTS). TS 10W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF JAPAN. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG THIS TRACK AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LEGASPI CITY, THEN DRAGS
OVER ROUGH TERRAIN JUST NORTH OF MANILA, BEFORE EXITING INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY REINTENSIFY
OVER WARM WATERS AND FAVORABLE VWS BEFORE MAKING A SECONDARY
LANDFALL - THIS TIME OVER HAINAN AFTER TAU 72. TS NOCK-TEN WILL
MOMENTARILY INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS THAT IS ERRONEOUSLY
DEFLECTING THE VORTEX NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH OF CONSENSUS DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
Bit alarming for Manila, though at least the winds are about 35kts. Just hoping that convection won't blow up and won't speed down once it makes landfall.
@oaba09 thanks! I wonder how bad the weather will be tomorrow, I wish the school superintendents would announce earlier if ever classes will be suspended...good for me because I was able to go home early, it will be too hard and too risky to get stranded because of the rains and floods.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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metenthusiast
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oaba09
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Re: Re:
dexterlabio wrote:oaba09 wrote:Bit alarming for Manila, though at least the winds are about 35kts. Just hoping that convection won't blow up and won't speed down once it makes landfall.
@oaba09 thanks! I wonder how bad the weather will be tomorrow, I wish the school superintendents would announce earlier if ever classes will be suspended...good for me because I was able to go home early, it will be too hard and too risky to get stranded because of the rains and floods.
I have a gut feeling that I won't be able to go to work tomorrow due to the weather....
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metenthusiast
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dexterlabio
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From Twitter:
dost_pagasa PAGASA-DOST
There will be a Press Conference (TS "JUANING") @ 5PM today.
Really keeping an eye on this storm. They might be seeing that chances of a landfall close to Manila is high.
dost_pagasa PAGASA-DOST
There will be a Press Conference (TS "JUANING") @ 5PM today.
Really keeping an eye on this storm. They might be seeing that chances of a landfall close to Manila is high.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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oaba09
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Re:
metenthusiast wrote:Also wondering how much rain it would bring. Based on the forecast, it will be crossing central luzon the whole night, so would rain be cause for concern?
Has something important to do outside tomorrow at 4am. It seems such a bad idea now seeing the development of nock ten.
that's probably the time when nock ten is closest to us....
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metenthusiast
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Re: Re:
oaba09 wrote:metenthusiast wrote:Also wondering how much rain it would bring. Based on the forecast, it will be crossing central luzon the whole night, so would rain be cause for concern?
Has something important to do outside tomorrow at 4am. It seems such a bad idea now seeing the development of nock ten.
that's probably the time when nock ten is closest to us....
Yeah, it seems so. Really looking like a bad idea now. guess I have to sack up the plan.
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phwxenthusiast
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really difficult for landfall forecast.. areas from Southern Quezon all the way up to Aurora has a chance... that JTWC forecast is really scary, especially for Manila... heavy rains from this system, Virac reported as much as 200mm of rain fell in just SIX HOURS... closest point of approach for Manila, imho, will be about 60km north as Juaning moves across Rizal and Bulacan by around 3am...
btw cloud tops on the southeastern side seem to be cooling again in the last 2 hours...
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to PAGASA products.
btw cloud tops on the southeastern side seem to be cooling again in the last 2 hours...
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to PAGASA products.
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm
The waters east of Quezon-Aurora area could provide moisture for Nock-ten, that's what I am worried about because the storm might burst up its convection as it crosses Luzon. In any way as long as we will be south of its center, we will be getting lots of rainfall from this storm. So it will be best not to put our guards down. 
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to PAGASA products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to PAGASA products.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm
Looking good for me, by the way. Nice tight curved banding, I suppose.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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phwxenthusiast
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm
dexterlabio wrote:The waters east of Quezon-Aurora area could provide moisture for Nock-ten, that's what I am worried about because the storm might burst up its convection as it crosses Luzon. In any way as long as we will be south of its center, we will be getting lots of rainfall from this storm. So it will be best not to put our guards down.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to PAGASA products.
hope you don't mind but where in NCR are you exactly?? do you know if PAGASA's conference is being shown live on national tv??
thanks
but yeah i agree, it could very well strengthen one more time before making landfall... my main concern is not so much on winds but on rain... i know Manila and the surrounding provinces can withstand weak tropical storm winds, but we all know what heavy rain can do in the Philippines...
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dexterlabio
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm
phwxenthusiast wrote:hope you don't mind but where in NCR are you exactly?? do you know if PAGASA's conference is being shown live on national tv??
thanks
but yeah i agree, it could very well strengthen one more time before making landfall... my main concern is not so much on winds but on rain... i know Manila and the surrounding provinces can withstand weak tropical storm winds, but we all know what heavy rain can do in the Philippines...
I'm living here in Quezon City, currently along Katipunan.
I think the press con will be shown in local news programs, maybe in GMA News Channel or ANC. By the way, I read a sad news about a bus that fell off the Skyway bridge. One survivor claimed that the rains and winds were strong that's why the bus went out of balance and fell. I remember one time, I was driving along Skyway and experienced a thunderstorm, yes it really feels scary to drive off that bridge when the rain is heavy. :|
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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ManilaTC
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Re: WPAC: NOCK-TEN - Tropical Storm
This is it guys, batten down the hatches 
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oaba09
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latest from pagasa(metro manila under signal #2)
Tropical Storm "JUANING" has slightly intensified as it moves toward Quezon area and increases its threat to Southern and Central Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 50 km Northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte
Coordinates: 14.4°N, 123.4°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 15 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Wednesday afternoon:
50 km South of Dagupan City
Thursday afternoon:
360 km West of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds) Camarines Provinces
Albay
Catanduanes
Pangasinan
Nueva Ecija
Zambales
Pampanga
Tarlac
Bulacan
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Quezon
Polillo Island
Metro Manila
Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds) Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Apayao
Cagayan
Abra
Kalinga
Isabela
Mt. Province
Ifugao
La Union
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Mindoro Provinces
Lubang Is.
Marinduque
Romblon
Burias Is.
Masbate
Ticao Is.
Sorsogon
Tropical Storm "JUANING" has slightly intensified as it moves toward Quezon area and increases its threat to Southern and Central Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 50 km Northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte
Coordinates: 14.4°N, 123.4°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 15 kph.
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Wednesday afternoon:
50 km South of Dagupan City
Thursday afternoon:
360 km West of Laoag City
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds) Camarines Provinces
Albay
Catanduanes
Pangasinan
Nueva Ecija
Zambales
Pampanga
Tarlac
Bulacan
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Quezon
Polillo Island
Metro Manila
Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds) Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Apayao
Cagayan
Abra
Kalinga
Isabela
Mt. Province
Ifugao
La Union
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
Quirino
Aurora
Mindoro Provinces
Lubang Is.
Marinduque
Romblon
Burias Is.
Masbate
Ticao Is.
Sorsogon
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Thank God the storm now looks ugly and disorganized. Any chance it will regain its good convection before?
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