ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Vortex]

Looking at some of the guidance, it seems plausible over the next 2 days a sw/wsw drift/movement bringing it either into south or central FL just inland then a turn possible N then NE....very speculative ATTM....

[jinftl]

Latest MLB radar shows rainfall just north of Grand Bahama and Great Abaco



Looking at radar loop...slow drift south/hardly moving?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[cycloneye]

If all goes as planned,the plane departs around 12:15 PM EDT and arrives at the system around 1:30 PM - 2 PM timeframe.But,until the plane is in the air, is not a stone thing that they fly,because the system may weaken suddenly in the next few hours and then the flight is cancelled.

[Vortex]

once we get a fix from recon and initialized by the models on the 00z package may clear up some if the ambuguity...Regarless, the synoptic set this isnt going anywhere fast over the next 48....Do think its reasonable it makes it to at least a portion of the coast between melbourne and west palm.....

[Aric Dunn]

once we get a fix from recon and initialized by the models on the 00z package may clear up some if the ambuguity...Regarless, the synoptic set this isnt going anywhere fast over the next 48....Do think its reasonable it makes it to at least a portion of the coast between melbourne and west palm.....

sounds about right

[NDG]

This radar picture I centered it based on the latest best track coordinates of 98L, as you can see the surface low center is dislocated to the northwest of its mid level circulation. NW mid level shear is still affecting the system.



Click here for radar loop of the image above

[Vortex]

This radar picture I centered it based on the latest best track coordinates of 98L, as you can see the surface low center is dislocated to the northwest of its mid level circulation. NW mid level shear is still affecting the system.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... -78835.gif

Click here for radar loop of the image above

Agree, still loosly defined but latest vis indicates UL winds aloft may be slowly relaxing and wouldnt surprise me abit if it tightens up under the deeper convection....

[jinftl]

The further south the system gets in the short-term, the lower the shear?

[Blown Away]

The NW shear is still evident and IMO the 30% chance of development is appropriate for this area. How many of these lows have developed into a TD off the Central Florida coast and moved S'ward? Not many.

[Recurve]

Well, well what a surprise I find this morning -- a 30% blob off Florida. Doesn't appear this will be a major threat but will it be a rainmaker for south FL?

snip from KW discussion

THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE NAM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND EVEN A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE..THE GFS
KEEPS A WEAKER FEATURE BETWEEN CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WASHES IT OUT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS BEING
MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BUT CURRENTLY HAS ONLY A
LOW CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WILL
FAVOR THE WEAKER GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...ANY DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE KEYS DURING
THIS TIME. WE COULD SEE INDIRECT EFFECTS HOWEVER...AS A BACKING STEERING
FLOW ALONG WITH A BIT MORE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COMING OFF THE MAINLAND
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE COULD BE SOME
CHANCE FOR A LATE CLOUD LINE ALONG THE KEYS AS WELL. WILL BRING
SCATTERED COVERAGE INTO THE BAY/GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BUMP POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE KEYS AS WELL THIS EVENING

[gatorcane]

Another thing to pay attention to is the dry air to the nw of 98L. While upper-level winds should relax over the next 24 hours...the env may not be moist enough for a quick ramp up here.

[AdamFirst]

Oh look....a drought buster just 100 miles to the east. Are you planning to drift our way, 98L, or are you gonna just wave from a distance and take off somewhere else?

[TheBurn]

Looking quite 'healthy' according to my untrained eyes...

[Blown Away]

Oh look....a drought buster just 100 miles to the east. Are you planning to drift our way, 98L, or are you gonna just wave from a distance and take off somewhere else?

LOL, you wouldn't know it with such a bright sunny morning along the Treasure Coast! Looking at the visible 98L does look like it is getting better organized.

[artist]

[NDG]

I would put a better getting organized low pressure center at or just below the 28th latitude, conservatively, if not a bit closer to the deep convection.
I am basing this per the latest sat loop and radar loop, but strong vorticity may still be strongest above the surface as we are still not seeing any really surface pressure drops in the area.

[AdamFirst]

The long range Melbourne radar shows a very slow south-to-west drift.

[Aric Dunn]

I would put a better getting organized low pressure center at or just below the 28th latitude, conservatively, if not a bit closer to the deep convection.
I am basing this per the latest sat loop and radar loop, but strong vorticity may still be strongest above the surface as we are still not seeing any really surface pressure drops in the area.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... o2j3Zb.jpg

Actually I was just about to post something similar. I have it approximately at 27.9 77.8

[jinftl]

Webcam out of Jupiter Inlet (northern Palm Beach county)....can almost start to see edge of the cirrus clouds off to the east and northeast...

[wxman57]

SFC obs and satellite indicate a TD has already formed. I fully expect an upgrade this afternoon. Not sure about track/intensity. Models didn't initialize it well. Could move west into the Gulf eventually, or it could track off to the northeast in a few days. Depending upon interaction with Florida, it could get stronger than initial intensity models indicate, as those models probably see the very strong shear up around 30 N that may not be impacting the smallish low. I'll be heading in to the office in a few hours to be there for the likely upgrade.