Very powerful looking system once again on the ECM, going to be be very interesting to see jsut how strong this one becomes.
Looks like its getting better organised, though its got a slightly odd elongated presentation. Seems to be getting there though...
WPAC: MA-ON - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Tropical Storm
WTPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 153.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 153.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.7N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.2N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.6N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.1N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.8N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.7N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.8N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121800Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 153.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO FLARING CONVECTIVE LOBES STRADDLING THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AS CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM NEARS. A 12/1551Z AMSR-E 89H
GHZ AND 12/1541Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONCENTRATED IN A THIN LINEAR BAND TO THE WEST WITH A LARGER CURVING
BAND TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE 12/1551Z 37H GHZ AMSR-E IMAGE
SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS STILL ELONGATED IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION
AND VERY ASYMMETRIC IN NATURE. RECENT UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT A POINT SOURCE OF
DIVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER TS 08W BUT MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE REMAINS CONCENTRATED ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STORM ARE STILL
BEING NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST HAS BEEN
PROPAGATING WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE MOTION OF TS 08W AND HAS
INCREASED ITS DISTANCE FROM THE STORM WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A
NORTHWESTWARD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO DEVELOP. THE OUTFLOW INTO
THE LARGE TUTT CELL, THAT LIES FAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR THE
DATELINE, IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS TS 08W INCREASES ITS
LONGITUDINAL DISTANCE FROM THE CELL. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET WHICH LIES TO THE SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS AND FAVORS A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A NORTHWARD RECURVATURE SCENARIO, AS THE MAJORITY OF
CONSENSUS MEMBERS DO, IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z,
1301500Z AND 132100Z.//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MA-ON) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 153.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 153.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 19.7N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.2N 149.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.6N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.1N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.8N 139.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 22.7N 136.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 24.8N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
121800Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 153.6E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO FLARING CONVECTIVE LOBES STRADDLING THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
AS CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM NEARS. A 12/1551Z AMSR-E 89H
GHZ AND 12/1541Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONCENTRATED IN A THIN LINEAR BAND TO THE WEST WITH A LARGER CURVING
BAND TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. THE 12/1551Z 37H GHZ AMSR-E IMAGE
SHOWS THAT THE LLCC IS STILL ELONGATED IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION
AND VERY ASYMMETRIC IN NATURE. RECENT UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT A POINT SOURCE OF
DIVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED OVER TS 08W BUT MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE REMAINS CONCENTRATED ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STORM ARE STILL
BEING NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
SUBSIDENCE CAUSED BY THE TROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO
THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST HAS BEEN
PROPAGATING WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE MOTION OF TS 08W AND HAS
INCREASED ITS DISTANCE FROM THE STORM WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR A
NORTHWESTWARD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO DEVELOP. THE OUTFLOW INTO
THE LARGE TUTT CELL, THAT LIES FAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR THE
DATELINE, IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS TS 08W INCREASES ITS
LONGITUDINAL DISTANCE FROM THE CELL. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UKMET WHICH LIES TO THE SOUTH OF
CONSENSUS AND FAVORS A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A NORTHWARD RECURVATURE SCENARIO, AS THE MAJORITY OF
CONSENSUS MEMBERS DO, IN THE LATER TAUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z,
1301500Z AND 132100Z.//
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
phwxenthusiast
- Category 2
- Posts: 637
- Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
- Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)
Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Tropical Storm
NWS Guam also noting the very strong solutions being shown by the models...
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGGREEMENT TODAY ABOUT THE MONSOON TAIL OF TS
MA-ON BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE MARIANAS THU-FRI...AND
HAVE LEFT THAT FORECAST UNCHANGED. THE OUTSTANDING FEATURE OF
TODAY'S MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE LARGE FIELD OF STRONG WINDS THE GFS
PRODUCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS MA-ON...PRODUCING 30 KT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
MA-ON NEARLY 700 MILES AWAY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
OBVIOUS REASON TO EXPECT SUCH A DEVELOPMENT...SO FOR NOW HAVE USED
MORE REALISTIC ECMWF WINDS OUT TO DAY 5...WHICH RESULTS IN 20-25
KT WINDS FOR THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE
WATCHING...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIVING THE CENTRAL SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OF MA-ON DOWN MUCH FURTHER THAN THE MODELS NORMALLY
DO: 948 MB IN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT AND 914 MB IN THE ECMWF MONDAY
MORNING--THE LOWEST SLP I HAVE EVER SEEN IN A MODEL TYPHOON.
THUS...PERHAPS THERE MAY BE SOMETHING UNUSUAL ABOUT MA-ON THAT
WOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDED MODEL WIND FIELD. DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON!
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGGREEMENT TODAY ABOUT THE MONSOON TAIL OF TS
MA-ON BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE MARIANAS THU-FRI...AND
HAVE LEFT THAT FORECAST UNCHANGED. THE OUTSTANDING FEATURE OF
TODAY'S MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE LARGE FIELD OF STRONG WINDS THE GFS
PRODUCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS MA-ON...PRODUCING 30 KT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
MA-ON NEARLY 700 MILES AWAY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
OBVIOUS REASON TO EXPECT SUCH A DEVELOPMENT...SO FOR NOW HAVE USED
MORE REALISTIC ECMWF WINDS OUT TO DAY 5...WHICH RESULTS IN 20-25
KT WINDS FOR THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE
WATCHING...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIVING THE CENTRAL SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OF MA-ON DOWN MUCH FURTHER THAN THE MODELS NORMALLY
DO: 948 MB IN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT AND 914 MB IN THE ECMWF MONDAY
MORNING--THE LOWEST SLP I HAVE EVER SEEN IN A MODEL TYPHOON.
THUS...PERHAPS THERE MAY BE SOMETHING UNUSUAL ABOUT MA-ON THAT
WOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDED MODEL WIND FIELD. DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON!
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WTPQ20 RJTD 122100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 19.3N 153.3E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 20.5N 148.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 141800UTC 21.8N 144.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 151800UTC 22.8N 139.8E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
Tropical Storm Watches now up for the northernmost Marianas:
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 122152 CCA
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MA-ON (08W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP082011
800 AM CHST WED JUL 13 2011
...TROPICAL STORM MA-ON MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MA-ON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.0 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN
480 MILES EAST OF PAGAN
480 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
560 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...AND
680 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM MA-ON IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM MA-ON IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 153.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
Looking rather fetching this morning:
Latest SAB Dvorak classification at 3.5/55kt:
TXPQ26 KNES 122107
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 12/2032Z
C. 19.1N
D. 153.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/AMSU/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .95 ON LOG10 SPIRAL BUT IS NEARLY
CONTINUOUSLY WHITE OR COLDER FOR DT OF 4.0. VIS IMAGERY AND EIR SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION IS MORE SPOTTY WITH NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS LEADING
TO A BANDED EYE FEATURE. MI SUITE GAVE VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND LOCATION FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION ASSIGNMENT.
MET IS 3.5. AND PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON MET AS DT WOULD BREAK RULES
OF DEVELOPING 1.5/06HRS. AND THOUGH SYSTEM IS CLEARLY TRENDING TOWARD
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IT IS NOT QUITE A SOLID 4.0.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
12/1541Z 19.1N 153.9E AMSU
12/1551Z 19.0N 153.8E AMSRE
...GALLINA
WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W//WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120727Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW THE
AREA WEST OF THE STORM BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED, THE 37GHZ
CUT OF THE SSMIS SERIES REVEALS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE ABSENCE OF BANDING IS A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT), WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE. THE TUTT IS IMPINGING
ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW
GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST, IT ALSO SHOWS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THUS, TS 08W HAS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW IN
ALL BUT ONE QUADRANT. DIFFUSE ORGANIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY LEVEL
CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM'S ENERGY IS DISPERSED OVER A BROAD REGION,
STEALING ENERGY AWAY FROM THE CORE. THE CURRENT INENSITY ANALYSIS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK RANGE FROM 30 TO 32 DEGREES. TS 08W IS
STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYLONE SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY AND STATIONARY THROUGH 72 HOURS, WHICH WILL KEEP TS 08W ON A
STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH (BETWEEN 30 AND
32 DEGREES). OUTFLOW WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM OCCASIONALLY LINKS
WITH AN EMBEDDED TUTT CELL AND RECEIVES A BOOST TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
BUT FOR THE MOST PART, THE TUTT WILL ACT AS A SUPPRESSING MECHANISM.
THUS, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS STIPS GUIDANCE
CLOSELY. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS VIRTUALLY ALL AIDS AS THEY ARE
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, BUT THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN CONSENSUS DUE TO AN OBSERVED TENDENCY OF STRAIGHT RUNNERS TO BE
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS.
C. BEGINNING NEAR THE TAU 84-96 PERIOD, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND RE-ORIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE STORM TO
TURN POLEWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT REGARDING A TRACK SOUTH
OF IWO TO, AND THE LONGER RANGE PROGS ARE INDICATING POLEWARD
MOVEMENT PRIOR TO THE RYUKUS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE TUTT
WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS ALONG THE SAME TRACK, WHILE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED CLOSELY ON STIPS GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1106 MA-ON (1106)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 122100UTC 19.3N 153.3E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 132100UTC 20.5N 148.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 141800UTC 21.8N 144.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 151800UTC 22.8N 139.8E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT =
Tropical Storm Watches now up for the northernmost Marianas:
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 122152 CCA
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MA-ON (08W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP082011
800 AM CHST WED JUL 13 2011
...TROPICAL STORM MA-ON MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND
ALAMAGAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF 40 MPH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MA-ON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 153.0 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 480 MILES EAST OF AGRIHAN
480 MILES EAST OF PAGAN
480 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
560 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...AND
680 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.
TROPICAL STORM MA-ON IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 MPH. TROPICAL STORM MA-ON IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 19.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 153.0 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
Looking rather fetching this morning:
Latest SAB Dvorak classification at 3.5/55kt:
TXPQ26 KNES 122107
TCSWNP
A. 08W (MA-ON)
B. 12/2032Z
C. 19.1N
D. 153.5E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/AMSU/AMSRE
H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .95 ON LOG10 SPIRAL BUT IS NEARLY
CONTINUOUSLY WHITE OR COLDER FOR DT OF 4.0. VIS IMAGERY AND EIR SHOWS
THAT CONVECTION IS MORE SPOTTY WITH NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS LEADING
TO A BANDED EYE FEATURE. MI SUITE GAVE VERY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND LOCATION FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION ASSIGNMENT.
MET IS 3.5. AND PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON MET AS DT WOULD BREAK RULES
OF DEVELOPING 1.5/06HRS. AND THOUGH SYSTEM IS CLEARLY TRENDING TOWARD
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IT IS NOT QUITE A SOLID 4.0.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
12/1541Z 19.1N 153.9E AMSU
12/1551Z 19.0N 153.8E AMSRE
...GALLINA
WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W//WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (MA-ON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 800 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 120727Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER BOTH THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW THE
AREA WEST OF THE STORM BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED, THE 37GHZ
CUT OF THE SSMIS SERIES REVEALS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL BANDING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE ABSENCE OF BANDING IS A RESULT OF
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
(TUTT), WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE 21ST LATITUDE. THE TUTT IS IMPINGING
ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW
GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST, IT ALSO SHOWS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THUS, TS 08W HAS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW IN
ALL BUT ONE QUADRANT. DIFFUSE ORGANIZATION IN THE BOUNDARY LEVEL
CONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM'S ENERGY IS DISPERSED OVER A BROAD REGION,
STEALING ENERGY AWAY FROM THE CORE. THE CURRENT INENSITY ANALYSIS IS
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG TRACK RANGE FROM 30 TO 32 DEGREES. TS 08W IS
STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE,
WHICH EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYLONE SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STEADY AND STATIONARY THROUGH 72 HOURS, WHICH WILL KEEP TS 08W ON A
STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK WILL REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH (BETWEEN 30 AND
32 DEGREES). OUTFLOW WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SYSTEM OCCASIONALLY LINKS
WITH AN EMBEDDED TUTT CELL AND RECEIVES A BOOST TO POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
BUT FOR THE MOST PART, THE TUTT WILL ACT AS A SUPPRESSING MECHANISM.
THUS, TS 08W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE THROUGH TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS STIPS GUIDANCE
CLOSELY. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS VIRTUALLY ALL AIDS AS THEY ARE
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, BUT THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN CONSENSUS DUE TO AN OBSERVED TENDENCY OF STRAIGHT RUNNERS TO BE
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS.
C. BEGINNING NEAR THE TAU 84-96 PERIOD, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN AND RE-ORIENT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW THE STORM TO
TURN POLEWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT REGARDING A TRACK SOUTH
OF IWO TO, AND THE LONGER RANGE PROGS ARE INDICATING POLEWARD
MOVEMENT PRIOR TO THE RYUKUS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE TUTT
WILL KEEP THE INTENSIFICATION RATE LOWER THAN NORMAL. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS ALONG THE SAME TRACK, WHILE
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED CLOSELY ON STIPS GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
Last edited by supercane on Tue Jul 12, 2011 9:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HURAKAN
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Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Tropical Storm
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 981.0mb/ 65.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.3 6.0
Raw going crazy!!
4.0 / 981.0mb/ 65.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.3 6.0
Raw going crazy!!
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Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Tropical Storm
This thing looks to me like it's trying to become a monster.
Last edited by Fyzn94 on Tue Jul 12, 2011 6:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.
Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Tropical Storm
Yeah, this is a case of where your eyes can certainly tell this is stronger than 40knots by a lot.
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StormingB81
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Rgv20
- S2K Supporter
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Re:
phwxenthusiast wrote:EURO still showing a Kyushu landfall.. deepens to 947hpa by day 6 with max wind at 850hpa of around 120kts...
Looking at 12zECMWF thru Accuweather Pro it makes landfall at Kyushu next Tuesday. I counted the isobars at 938 mean sea level pressure and it looks to be deeper than that but its so tightly pack that its hard to tell
Hopefully the Euro does not verify.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Latest JTWC Dvorak agrees with SAB's estimate of 3.5/55kt:
TPPN11 PGTW 130020
A. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MAON)
B. 12/2332Z
C. 19.1N
D. 152.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN. IN THE PAST SIX HOURS,
CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED ALMOST COMPLETELY AROUND THE LLCC. A
CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .85 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.5.
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 24HRS YIELDS A MET OF 3.5. PT
AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/2001Z 19.1N 153.3E SSMS
12/2150Z 19.6N 153.2E SSMS
HOUGH
Latest microwave shows the developing eye wall:
TPPN11 PGTW 130020
A. TROPICAL STORM 08W (MAON)
B. 12/2332Z
C. 19.1N
D. 152.7E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN.
TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN. IN THE PAST SIX HOURS,
CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED ALMOST COMPLETELY AROUND THE LLCC. A
CONVECTIVE WRAP OF .85 ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 3.5.
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 24HRS YIELDS A MET OF 3.5. PT
AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
12/2001Z 19.1N 153.3E SSMS
12/2150Z 19.6N 153.2E SSMS
HOUGH
Latest microwave shows the developing eye wall:
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phwxenthusiast
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Re: Re:
Rgv20 wrote:phwxenthusiast wrote:EURO still showing a Kyushu landfall.. deepens to 947hpa by day 6 with max wind at 850hpa of around 120kts...
Looking at 12zECMWF thru Accuweather Pro it makes landfall at Kyushu next Tuesday. I counted the isobars at 938 mean sea level pressure and it looks to be deeper than that but its so tightly pack that its hard to tell
Hopefully the Euro does not verify.
yes i took a look again and it seems deeper than 947.. NWS Guam is saying 914 hpa, thats the lowest he's seen in a model typhoon the forecaster said...
but i agree, as much as it looks so great for enthusiasts like us to see a rapidly intensifying storm, i wouldn't want any of that monster hitting land...
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Upgraded to a STS by JMA, winds up only from 45 to 50kt:
WTPQ50 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON (1106) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 19.3N 152.9E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 20.4N 148.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 150000UTC 21.7N 144.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 160000UTC 22.8N 139.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 170000UTC 23.9N 135.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
120HF 180000UTC 26.3N 132.5E 375NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT =
WTPQ50 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1106 MA-ON (1106) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 19.3N 152.9E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 250NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 20.4N 148.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 150000UTC 21.7N 144.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 160000UTC 22.8N 139.2E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 170000UTC 23.9N 135.5E 280NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
120HF 180000UTC 26.3N 132.5E 375NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT =
Last edited by supercane on Tue Jul 12, 2011 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Typhoon Hunter
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Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Severe Tropical Storm
Very impressive organisation overnight! Given the JTWC prognostic reasoning at warning 5 it's a surprise it cranked up so nicely.
Wow and I didn't seen to be wanting to bark up the wrong tree but I'm glad my thoughts yesterday echo those of a pro when it came to the crazy models runs.
The latest long range models are all over the place with UKMET taking Ma-on all the way west, ECMWF into Kyushu and GFS going for the full recurve.
phwxenthusiast wrote:NWS Guam also noting the very strong solutions being shown by the models...
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGGREEMENT TODAY ABOUT THE MONSOON TAIL OF TS
MA-ON BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE MARIANAS THU-FRI...AND
HAVE LEFT THAT FORECAST UNCHANGED. THE OUTSTANDING FEATURE OF
TODAY'S MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE LARGE FIELD OF STRONG WINDS THE GFS
PRODUCES IN ASSOCIATION WITH TS MA-ON...PRODUCING 30 KT SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE CENTER OF
MA-ON NEARLY 700 MILES AWAY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
OBVIOUS REASON TO EXPECT SUCH A DEVELOPMENT...SO FOR NOW HAVE USED
MORE REALISTIC ECMWF WINDS OUT TO DAY 5...WHICH RESULTS IN 20-25
KT WINDS FOR THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY. THIS SITUATION WILL BEAR CLOSE
WATCHING...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRIVING THE CENTRAL SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE OF MA-ON DOWN MUCH FURTHER THAN THE MODELS NORMALLY
DO: 948 MB IN THE GFS SUNDAY NIGHT AND 914 MB IN THE ECMWF MONDAY
MORNING--THE LOWEST SLP I HAVE EVER SEEN IN A MODEL TYPHOON.
THUS...PERHAPS THERE MAY BE SOMETHING UNUSUAL ABOUT MA-ON THAT
WOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDED MODEL WIND FIELD. DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON!
Wow and I didn't seen to be wanting to bark up the wrong tree but I'm glad my thoughts yesterday echo those of a pro when it came to the crazy models runs.
The latest long range models are all over the place with UKMET taking Ma-on all the way west, ECMWF into Kyushu and GFS going for the full recurve.
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Rgv20
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JMA showing a 968 central sea level pressure and a re curvature right thru the spine of Japan...Hopefully citizens of Japan are aware of this potentially dangerous situation.
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phwxenthusiast
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Re: WPAC: MA-ON - Severe Tropical Storm
Typhoon Hunter wrote:
Wow and I didn't seen to be wanting to bark up the wrong tree but I'm glad my thoughts yesterday echo those of a pro when it came to the crazy models runs.
The latest long range models are all over the place with UKMET taking Ma-on all the way west, ECMWF into Kyushu and GFS going for the full recurve.
so what do you think mr. james, when you going to Japan??
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