ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

[ROCK]

Cloud tops have warmed in the last few hours. Low level convergence isn't that great. And what model support has it had for days? The good models have done little to nothing with it. I don't care about the CMC or NOGAPS. And please don't bring up the generally bad hurricane models.

Dws I forgot you were still around.... What about the CLIPPER now there is a good model to use.

Do we really need to go back in time to discuss old model runs. Its been sitting down there for a week...CMC has been tweaked and did exceptionally well in 2010.....hell yeah I am going to use it. Who wouldnt......

[ROCK]

2011 starting off bigtime IMO. I am getting this ominous feeling we may indeed see some dangerous tracks this season.


Shooting off the NE though? That's a strange track for June 3rd...

it is a strange track but it also means this death ridge will break down and allow for some sea breeze showers..thats what I am hoping for...

[WeatherGuesser]

I'm guessing that the percentage will increase in the next TWO.

I'm not too sure it will. Maybe 40%,


Guess not.

[Migle]

Ouch

[caribepr]

Watching and waiting...humidity around here has been in the 95 to 99% range for days; move it, 94!

[KWT]

Convection has really weakened over the last few hours, a decent burst still developing further east but probably not as advanced as some think...

[ronjon]

Models that develop 94L quickly shoot it out to the NE into a weakness in the SW Atlantic. The weaker, broad low pressure envisoned by the GFS, Euro, GFDL, & NOGAPs drift the system slowly N-NW or NW into the Yuc straits or western Cuba. The weaker solution seems more accurate as of now. There is a mid or upper level low seen in the Euro over the western GOM which may help steer the mess into FL or the eastern GOM. It will probably also shear this thing to death.

[KWT]

Yeah exactly, the more agressive solutions have the system shooting off to the NNE/NE.

Will have to see how the system evolves in the next few days.

[srainhoutx]

94L is under some SW shear. Unless that changes later today and convection can begin to fire W of the circulation, I suspect RECON will be a no go.

[ronjon]

Here's the only stong solution I've seen for the GOM.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011060406&prod=prp&tau=144&set=Tropical

[wxman57]

Here's the only stong solution I've seen for the GOM.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011060406&prod=prp&tau=144&set=Tropical

NOGAPS is hands-down THE worst tropical cyclone model on the planet. Whatever it says, I'd go 180 degrees from that. Taking a look at the overnight models, I see most just have it wandering around near Jamaica for 4-5 days then dissipating. That's probably most likely. Canadian, of course, develops it to a hurricane and tracks it NNE. There is a chance it could develop in a few days. If so, then it would probably track north to northeast as per the Canadian.

[wxman57]

I don't see much change since 12 hours ago. Pressures in the region aren't much lower. Winds around the weak low center still about 15-20 mph max. LLC is displaced about 100-120 miles west of that small blob of convection. Definitely doesn't qualify for TD upgrade at this time. There is very little model support for development now (except the Canadian). I won't even begin to touch the HWRF until it demonstrates it has a clue this year. Certainly didn't demonstrate that last year. And GFDL typically does poorly with intensity forecasts for such weak systems.

I'd revise its development potential to 30-40% based on everything I'm seeing. In most cases, such systems never get their acts together and develop.

[TheBurn]

1115Z

[cycloneye]

06z Surface analysis:



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[cycloneye]

Remains at 30% on the 8 AM TWO.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
JAMAICA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS
OF HAITI... THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[KWT]

30% seems a solid estimate, hasn't really developed much since last night as Wxman57 stated, indeed the convection is a little less impressive.

[cycloneye]

Latest dvorak T numbers.

04/1145 UTC 15.9N 77.7W T1.0/1.0 94L -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

12z Bams:

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC SAT JUN 4 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942011) 20110604 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110604  1200   110605  0000   110605  1200   110606  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    16.2N  77.8W   16.8N  78.3W   17.2N  79.2W   17.5N  79.8W
BAMD    16.2N  77.8W   16.8N  77.9W   17.2N  78.2W   17.6N  78.7W
BAMM    16.2N  77.8W   16.7N  78.1W   17.0N  78.7W   17.4N  79.3W
LBAR    16.2N  77.8W   16.9N  77.8W   18.1N  77.5W   19.2N  76.5W
SHIP        25KTS          26KTS          28KTS          33KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          28KTS          33KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110606  1200   110607  1200   110608  1200   110609  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.7N  80.4W   17.9N  81.4W   18.1N  82.9W   18.1N  83.5W
BAMD    18.2N  79.0W   20.4N  78.1W   23.9N  75.3W   27.9N  72.9W
BAMM    17.7N  79.7W   18.6N  80.0W   20.0N  80.2W   22.4N  79.8W
LBAR    20.6N  74.6W   23.5N  67.7W   31.3N  55.0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        37KTS          42KTS          32KTS          20KTS
DSHP        37KTS          42KTS          32KTS          23KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  16.2N LONCUR =  77.8W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   0KT
LATM12 =  16.3N LONM12 =  77.8W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 =   0KT
LATM24 =  16.0N LONM24 =  77.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  120NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


Uploaded by imagkshack.us

[NDG]

And just that quick 94L is not that well organized this morning, with deepest convection east of a broad surface low. Like I thought last night, a mid level westerly shear must be affecting the system keeping the convection east of the center of circulation.
Hard to really find a true center with only a few daylight pictures to loop, it looks like the center is anywhere within the red circle I have drawn, so I giving the benefict of doubt.
But a naked swirl is very evident right on the left side of the red circle.
IMO, not unless convection gets going closer to the center of circulation I doubt that they will either send the recon or for the recon to find a TD, but a westerly wind is still evident, lol.

[KWT]

Nope I probably wouldn't send recon into that system today, clearly at least 24hrs away from developing into a system that could get upgraded to a depression.