WPAC: AERE (1101/03W/Bebeng) - Tropical Storm

[dexterlabio]

JMA up to 40 kts.

TS 1101 (Aere)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 7 May 2011

<Analyses at 07/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°20'(13.3°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more E220km(120NM)
W150km(80NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E121°00'(121.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°40'(21.7°)
E120°55'(120.9°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)

[RobWESTPACWX]

I think GMA is shown up here, but I don't have it ordered, just TFC. I can only get so much of my daily dose of tagalog wow wow wee excitement. LOL Any how thank you for the on the ground report, keep it coming.

[Macrocane]

Finally a decent system to track, it has become betetr organized in the last few hours, and it's producing very strong convection, I hope that people in the Phillipines are already prepared for the heavy rains.

[Extratropical94]

Dvorak estimates keep rising,
3.3 from SSD and 3.4 at CIMSS

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 MAY 2011 Time : 133200 UTC
Lat : 13:27:46 N Lon : 125:20:50 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 993.5mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.7 3.7

Center Temp : -80.9C Cloud Region Temp : -81.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 100km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

[StormingB81]

JTWC up to 45 Knots

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 03W (AERE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 125.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 125.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.3N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.6N 123.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.2N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 18.8N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.2N 121.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.3N 124.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 28.1N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 125.2E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03W (AERE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z
AND 081500Z.//
NNNN

[StormingB81]

Bringing it ALOT closer to Okinawa..within 68 NM but then yet only 30 knots winds is a walk in the park..lol nothing like a rainy day here

[senorpepr]

Severe Weather Bulletin No. 5
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Storm "BEBENG"

Issued at 11:00 p.m., Saturday, 07 May 2011

Tropical Storm "BEBENG" has slightly intensified as it moves closer to Bicol region.

Location of Center: (as of 4:00 p.m.) 140 km East of Legaspi City
Coordinates: 13.3°N, 125.2°E
Strength: Maximum winds of 75 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph
Movement: West Northwest at 13 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook:
Sunday evening:
90 km North of Daet, Camarines Norte or at 150 km Northwest of Baler, Aurora

Monday evening:
70 km West of Tuguegarao City or at 90 km South Southeast of Laoag City

Tuesday evening:
130 km West of Basco, Batanes

Signal 2 (61-100 kph)
Luzon
Sorsogon
Ticao Island
Albay
Burias Island
Camarines Sur
Camarines Norte
Southern Quezon
Catanduanes

Visayas
Northern Samar

Signal 1 (30-160 kph)
Luzon
Biliran
Masbate
Romblon
Marinduque
Rest of Quezon
Polilio Island
Nueva Ecija
Nueva Viscaya
Quirino
Aurora
Isabela

Visayas
Eastern Samar,
Western Samar

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal #2 and # 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Residents in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted of possible storm surges.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1101 AERE (1101)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 13.2N 124.7E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM EAST 80NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 081500UTC 16.3N 122.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 091200UTC 19.2N 121.0E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 101200UTC 21.7N 120.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[dexterlabio]

[oaba09]

^Aere moved a little bit to the west based on the JMA track...We should see a more NW movement soon...

I was looking at the sat loops and it's amazing how much convection this thing has...I hope everyone in Visayas is alright...

[oaba09]

latest tracks:




Generally similar tracks between the 3 agencies(JTWC has a more northern landfall)

[StormingB81]

Looks like it is going to be a really rainy and of the week but looks like it wont be to bad..

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[RobWESTPACWX]

Morning Update for this today all, gave Storm2k a shout out as usual. Really a lot of good discussion here, and also like the reports coming out of the PI as well. Please keep those coming.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwYhYbyv8r0[/youtube]

[oaba09]

It's cloudy in Metro Manila right now....No strong rains yet but it is cloudy....

[ManilaTC]

I hope people here in Manila continue to get aware despite today's Pacquiao fight... the heaviest rain is South and West of the center and with the track, we should get the brunt of the rain...

[RobWESTPACWX]

I hope people here in Manila continue to get aware despite today's Pacquiao fight... the heaviest rain is South and West of the center and with the track, we should get the brunt of the rain...

O yes, I got the fight on here as well, Its competing with top story of the day I'm sure.

[ManilaTC]

Storm center has now passed Catanduanes island... the turn to the NW still has not happened

[ManilaTC]

From PAGASA's @dost_pagasa twitter account...

SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN NUMBER 6

ISSUED AT: 7:00 AM, 8 MAY 2011

AS OF 6:00 AM TODAY, TD “BEBENG” WAS ESTIMATED 30 KM EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES (14.2°N, 124.4°E).

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 85 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 100 KPH
MOVEMENT: FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
SPEED: 13 KPH


PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL # 2
Sorsogon, Albay, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Polilio Island, Quezon, Burias Island, Ticao Island and Northern Samar.


PUBLIC STORM WARNING SIGNAL # 1
Masbate, Marinduque, Romblon, Laguna, Rizal, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, Isabela, Eastern Samar, Western Samar and Biliran

[StormingB81]

I am sure it will here shortly....but thats just my opinion..