ATL: IRENE - Models

[caneseddy]

Let's see so if I am reading that right. It makes landfall in Miami as a 986MB cane, and heads north up to Palm Beach over land mind you....and is a 982MB cane. Wow the GFS is going crazy.

Could not find a hurricane coming from the SE that went over Cuba/Hispaniola that landfalled as a major along the EC of SFL.

00z GFS track = Cleo track

I think King in 1950 was a Cat 3 when it came to Miami and I believe coming from the SE too

[SouthDadeFish]

Did anyone update the GFS list?

[bamajammer4eva]

You realized how many cities the GFS has destroyed on its past runs? I'm not buying any of these shifts until we have a well established system in the Caribbean...it could curve northward to the east of Florida and not be a United States problem.

100% correct but not as exciting an option for weather nuts to contemplate. last year the gfs blew my house down about 9 times and killed me about 8 times. we had no storms approach my region last year.

GFS is for entertainment purposes only-It wipes every city in Florida off the map time and time again during the summer/fall and buries those same cities countless times with snow in the winter. Sometimes its right but then again so is a broken clock twice a day lol.

[gatorcane]

You realized how many cities the GFS has destroyed on its past runs? I'm not buying any of these shifts until we have a well established system in the Caribbean...it could curve northward to the east of Florida and not be a United States problem.

100% correct but not as exciting an option for weather nuts to contemplate. last year the gfs blew my house down about 9 times and killed me about 8 times. we had no storms approach my region last year.

Yeah I know what you mean. So many times the GFS and sometimes the ECMWF basically wipe South Florida off the map especially in the 6-10 day range.

Then the system usually does not end up remotely close or as intense. The last real threat here was IKE back in 2008, which looked like a shoe-in major hurricane into SE Florida...but it somehow managed to dive south of us in an unusual track WSW.

The models were wrong even 3-4 days out there (the GFDL got it right though).

[Vortex]

Let's see so if I am reading that right. It makes landfall in Miami as a 986MB cane, and heads north up to Palm Beach over land mind you....and is a 982MB cane. Wow the GFS is going crazy.

Could not find a hurricane coming from the SE that went over Cuba/Hispaniola that landfalled as a major along the EC of SFL.

00z GFS track = Cleo track

That "could" be an excellent analog...

[Steve H.]

The NHC hasn't said anything about where this may make landfall! So don't make a statement like that please!

[Blown Away]

You realized how many cities the GFS has destroyed on its past runs? I'm not buying any of these shifts until we have a well established system in the Caribbean...it could curve northward to the east of Florida and not be a United States problem.

100% correct but not as exciting an option for weather nuts to contemplate. last year the gfs blew my house down about 9 times and killed me about 8 times. we had no storms approach my region last year.

Yeah I know what you mean. So many times the GFS and sometimes the ECMWF basically wipe South Florida off the map especially in the 6-10 day range.

Then the system usually does not end up remotely close or as intense.

Not to worried, if 97L happens to track N of Hispaniola then I'm very concerned.

[SouthDadeFish]

The NHC hasn't said anything about where this may make landfall! So don't make a statement like that please!

Yes, but the NHC track is almost always very close to the TVCN, which currently runs through the Florida Keys. Not saying it wont change, but if the NHC had to issue a track right now it would probably by very similar to that track.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yeah I know what you mean. So many times the GFS and sometimes the ECMWF basically wipe South Florida off the map especially in the 6-10 day range.

Then the system usually does not end up remotely close or as intense.[/quote]

Not to worried, if 97L happens to track N of Hispaniola then I'm very concerned.[/quote]

If it emerged off Cuba like GFS tonight it can go from 50 MPH to 110 in a matter of 24 hrs in the FL Straights...Water like 90 down there..

[gatorcane]

Any takers on what the Euro will do with it in a couple of hours?

[Hurricaneman]

Any takers on what the Euro will do with it in a couple of hours?

I'll say up the west coast of Florida, with landfall in the big bend region

[bamajammer4eva]

Let's see so if I am reading that right. It makes landfall in Miami as a 986MB cane, and heads north up to Palm Beach over land mind you....and is a 982MB cane. Wow the GFS is going crazy.

Could not find a hurricane coming from the SE that went over Cuba/Hispaniola that landfalled as a major along the EC of SFL.

00z GFS track = Cleo track

That "could" be an excellent analog...

Here is a quote from Joe Bastardi early this afternoon referencing actually the 12z ECMWF

BigJoeBastardiJoe Bastardi

Euro right on top of Cleo track in 1964. My track a bit further west.. see weatherbell.com post on that if you are curious

10 hours ago

[Blown Away]

The NHC hasn't said anything about where this may make landfall! So don't make a statement like that please!

What statement are you referring to?

[Janie2006]

Give me something to work with then I'll take GFS a bit more seriously. There's more than a bit of speculation and pixie dust in the models at the moment....we gotta have at least an LLC. That being said, I do remember a certain hurricane named Ivan. UK Met almost nailed the landfall 10 days out, it was off by maybe 60 miles. Maybe.

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian holds serve and is well south...SW of Jamaica

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I think we could very well see an eastward shift in models for the next day or two, BUT look for them to swing back west once they come to the realization that the ridging will be stronger/not break down as much and if there is a trough it more than likely will not be as deep or dig south as much to help pull this due north. As many have always said in the years past: models are always to quick to turn storms north into a weakness and weaken strong ridges as well especially in the 7 or more day time frame. I'm with Rock, Mike, and others thinking this is going to be a north gulf coast problem down the road.

[gatorcane]

Yeah Ivanhater, I see that. But right now it is the GFS/ECMWF vs the CMC on the strength of upper-level low that swings through north of the Great Lakes by the end of next week.

The GFS/ECMWF have a much strong upper-level low feature which consequently creates a much stronger weakness over Eastern North America.

The GFS and ECMWF have been flip-flopping on the details but none have sent this system SW of Jamaica like that (yet).

[Turtle]

Saw this on accuweather. It's interesting to see the typical paths storms usually take.

[Blown Away]

97L will go somewhere between sometimes and frequent IMO.

[Ivanhater]

00z Canadian 144 hours,..rapidly intensifying storm heading for the Yucatan/channel