ATL: DON - Remnant - Discussion

[ROCK]

the models are jacked right now...the CMC doesnt even see it down there and the GFS has been sniffing glue this entire time.

what we need is RECON data for these guys to digest then we can get a better idea.....right now FL to MX is a good bet...

It aint coming to Florida...it looks like it just popped out a strong LLC just SW of the Isle of Youth....a hurricane feeling the deep ridge into Texas looks good to me now that we have a LLC.

true, I would give you guys a lower percentage but since you are forcing me to narrow it down...I will....New Orleans to Tampico....

[hicksta]

Looks like a lot of options on the GFS ensembles:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

I am unable to see these for some reason, can someone fill me in on the spaghetti models?

[Stormcenter]

As of now "if" it develops it's going to SE Texas a sheared system. IMO

[MGC]

The 1980 death ridge keep Allen on a WNW course and into the Rio Grande area.....MGC

[SouthDadeFish]

That center location changes thing a bit. Should completely avoid the Yucatan now and only clip the western tip of Cuba.

[NDG]

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm going to say LLC has formed W/SW of Isle of Youth and looks to be fairly healthy, now that some of the convection has cleared out of the way you can see the circulation and new storms firing on top of it.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=25


And you can see the convection SE of Isle of Youth falling apart with nothing but southerly winds underneath it, I see.
I think the NHC analysis might have been too early. This appears to be a rapidly developing system, but now the questions is does it clip Cuba and get disrupted or steer clear and into the gulf.

I see it...looks robust..you can briefly see it before the new storms just fired over it......game on

[Portastorm]

The 1980 death ridge keep Allen on a WNW course and into the Rio Grande area.....MGC

1980/Allen redux (at least in terms of path)? I would agree. The Cockroach High Pressure Ridge of Death barely moves these days and it seems it would take one large cyclone to put a dent in it. 90L is going to have to eat its Wheaties.

[MGC]

Extreme western Cuba should not have much effect on a system that is in the early stages of formation. Land is quite flat there.......MGC

[ROCK]

That center location changes thing a bit. Should completely avoid the Yucatan now and only clip the western tip of Cuba.

it also will change the models as well...relocation north means more up the coast and more into those easterlies...

[Stormcenter]

But that was a massive death ridge in 1980 compared to what we have now and then again this is not Allen so I guess that even things out.

The 1980 death ridge keep Allen on a WNW course and into the Rio Grande area.....MGC

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 90, 2011072618, , BEST, 0, 209N, 837W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[Tireman4]

But that was a massive death ridge in 1980 compared to what we have now and then again this is not Allen so I guess that even things out.

The 1980 death ridge keep Allen on a WNW course and into the Rio Grande area.....MGC

Yeah, I swear this version of the death ridge has kinks in it....



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

Im still going with the LLC developing within the convection and associated with the MLC. no signs the weak area west of the convection is going to tighten up

[ROCK]

18z Best Track

AL, 90, 2011072618, , BEST, 0, 209N, 837W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

I would agree with that...1010 though seems a little high,,,

[Portastorm]

But that was a massive death ridge in 1980 compared to what we have now and then again this is not Allen so I guess that even things out.

The 1980 death ridge keep Allen on a WNW course and into the Rio Grande area.....MGC

Yeah, I swear this version of the death ridge has kinks in it....



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think this ridge is quite comparable to 1980 but I also agree that there are a few weaker areas of the ridge and lately it seems like they've been mainly in the Central Gulf Coast area. Otherwise, this ridge has dominated the Four Corners/Plains/Great Lakes/East Coast ... until the last few days when a back-door cold front has eroded some of the ridge on the eastern end.

[Aric Dunn]

And actually the system seems to be being influenced by the boundary to its NE and has taken a more NW motion this afternoon and it could be that the Southern gulf will see cyclogenisis... I mentioned it earlier but near the isle of youth seems the be the most vorticity in the low levels and its heading NW

[KWT]

I'm not really seeing any proper LLC, there is a couple of areas that do seem to be turning but none of them look clearcut at the moment. Still could be a formative LLC trying to get going, convection keeps trying to flare up, though its almost certainly in a waning phase right now.

If it gets too far north it'll head into the jaws of uncle shear, it must stay on a WNW track to keep in the lower shear zone that is present.

[SouthDadeFish]

Vorticity continues to increase:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

[tolakram]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

I'm sticking to looking up close and every time I look it appears to be better. Even more convection over what could be the LLC.

[cycloneye]

18z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 261851
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1851 UTC TUE JUL 26 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902011) 20110726 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110726  1800   110727  0600   110727  1800   110728  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.9N  83.7W   21.5N  85.7W   22.3N  87.5W   23.1N  89.3W
BAMD    20.9N  83.7W   21.4N  85.3W   22.0N  87.1W   22.6N  89.1W
BAMM    20.9N  83.7W   21.5N  85.4W   22.2N  87.1W   23.0N  88.9W
LBAR    20.9N  83.7W   21.8N  85.7W   22.9N  88.0W   24.0N  90.4W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          34KTS          41KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          34KTS          41KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110728  1800   110729  1800   110730  1800   110731  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    24.4N  91.1W   26.8N  95.2W   28.8N  99.4W   31.0N 103.4W
BAMD    23.3N  91.3W   24.6N  95.8W   25.7N 100.5W   26.9N 105.6W
BAMM    24.0N  91.0W   26.0N  95.4W   27.9N 100.0W   30.0N 104.6W
LBAR    25.2N  92.5W   27.9N  96.4W   30.1N  99.7W   32.0N 103.2W
SHIP        49KTS          61KTS          70KTS          76KTS
DSHP        49KTS          61KTS          36KTS          28KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  20.9N LONCUR =  83.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR =  15KT
LATM12 =  19.7N LONM12 =  81.4W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  18.9N LONM24 =  78.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  110NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM