ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

If the storm is supposed to quickly accelerate to the northeast (per some models) from the Yucatan, wouldn't its forward motion help to decrease the effect of shear on the system?
i.e. if the storm is going at 35 to the northeast, and the shear values are 50, isn't the net effect just 15? -not too hard to withstand to stay intact?

it's not just shear. it's super dry air that will be ingested into the core of the cyclone as well.

I would add super bone dry.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252137
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 10 20111025
212730 2234N 08525W 5942 04511 0138 -001 -009 109002 002 027 000 00
212800 2232N 08527W 5942 04511 0137 -001 -009 109002 002 027 000 00
212830 2230N 08528W 5941 04512 0136 +000 -009 108002 003 027 000 00
212900 2228N 08530W 5942 04511 0137 +001 -012 106003 003 028 000 00
212930 2226N 08532W 5943 04512 0138 +000 -013 107003 004 028 000 00
213000 2224N 08534W 5943 04513 0140 +000 -014 102004 004 028 000 00
213030 2222N 08536W 5943 04512 0139 +000 -015 085004 004 029 000 00
213100 2220N 08537W 5943 04511 0138 +001 -014 073004 004 029 000 00
213130 2218N 08539W 5943 04511 0137 +001 -014 058004 004 029 000 00
213200 2217N 08541W 5944 04509 0135 +001 -015 042005 005 030 000 00
213230 2215N 08543W 5944 04509 0134 +002 -015 042004 005 030 000 00
213300 2213N 08545W 5945 04506 0130 +003 -015 044004 005 030 000 00
213330 2211N 08547W 5943 04509 0129 +004 -015 048005 005 030 000 00
213400 2209N 08548W 5945 04510 0131 +005 -012 050005 005 030 000 00
213430 2207N 08550W 5945 04509 0132 +004 -013 079005 006 029 001 00
213500 2205N 08552W 5944 04511 0133 +004 -011 102007 007 031 000 00
213530 2203N 08554W 5944 04511 0131 +005 -012 105007 007 030 000 00
213600 2201N 08556W 5945 04509 0131 +005 -011 094008 008 031 000 00
213630 2159N 08558W 5946 04509 0131 +005 -010 097009 009 031 001 00
213700 2157N 08559W 5945 04507 0129 +005 -010 105009 010 024 002 03

[xironman]

So far she has done a great job of fending off the dry air. I remember Derek saying that you need some other factors such as shear or land interaction to force the dry air into the cyclones center. All of which could happen as she gets into the channel.

[xironman]

18z Trough digging well into Texas

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252147
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 11 20111025
213730 2155N 08559W 5944 04512 0130 +006 -010 107009 010 029 001 00
213800 2152N 08559W 5945 04511 0129 +006 -010 105009 010 030 000 00
213830 2150N 08558W 5946 04509 0127 +007 -009 098010 010 031 000 00
213900 2147N 08558W 5947 04508 0126 +008 -009 105011 012 031 000 00
213930 2145N 08558W 5946 04509 0123 +008 -008 105011 011 030 001 00
214000 2142N 08558W 5930 04528 0122 +007 +000 123010 010 031 000 00
214030 2140N 08557W 5929 04528 0120 +007 -003 124010 010 031 000 00
214100 2137N 08557W 5929 04530 0125 +005 +001 115008 008 030 000 00
214130 2135N 08557W 5930 04529 0124 +005 +001 099006 006 030 000 00
214200 2132N 08557W 5930 04528 0122 +006 -001 096006 006 030 001 00
214230 2130N 08557W 5930 04530 0122 +006 -001 107006 006 030 000 00
214300 2127N 08556W 5929 04529 0120 +007 +000 101005 006 030 000 00
214330 2125N 08556W 5930 04529 0120 +008 +000 095004 005 031 000 00
214400 2122N 08556W 5930 04527 0120 +007 +001 084004 004 031 000 00
214430 2120N 08556W 5930 04527 0118 +008 +002 087003 004 031 000 00
214500 2117N 08555W 5930 04529 0119 +007 +001 134004 004 031 000 00
214530 2115N 08555W 5930 04527 0119 +008 +001 126003 004 031 000 00
214600 2112N 08554W 5930 04527 0123 +006 +000 113005 005 /// /// 03
214630 2110N 08553W 5930 04530 0124 +006 +002 142006 006 030 000 00
214700 2109N 08551W 5931 04527 0121 +007 +001 145005 005 030 001 00

[psyclone]

So far she has done a great job of fending off the dry air. I remember Derek saying that you need some other factors such as shear or land interaction to force the dry air into the cyclones center. All of which could happen as she gets into the channel.

I think that's highly likely. dry air forced into the system via strong shear. it could implode very quickly. we already have dry air over the gulf and another front is on the way. this autumnal air has already done a number to water temps in the northern gulf so it won't modify quickly. the water temps in the tampa bay area are near 70, well below normal for late october. for the locals, it's not fit to fall in...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xironman]

It has got her

[xironman]

Going in the flow..

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252157
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 12 20111025
214730 2107N 08549W 5930 04531 0124 +006 -002 152011 012 029 001 00
214800 2105N 08548W 5930 04530 0123 +008 -017 155016 017 030 000 00
214830 2103N 08546W 5931 04529 0123 +009 -029 147015 015 028 000 00
214900 2100N 08545W 5932 04529 0118 +012 -030 148013 013 027 000 00
214930 2058N 08544W 5931 04529 0112 +015 -030 141012 013 027 000 00
215000 2056N 08543W 5931 04527 0111 +015 -034 138012 013 027 000 00
215030 2054N 08542W 5932 04526 0115 +013 -042 144011 012 027 000 00
215100 2052N 08541W 5932 04525 0114 +014 -053 153012 012 027 000 00
215130 2049N 08539W 5931 04524 0103 +015 +006 105015 016 028 001 00
215200 2047N 08538W 5932 04523 0103 +016 -017 131015 018 029 003 00
215230 2045N 08537W 5934 04520 0103 +016 -012 126012 012 028 000 00
215300 2043N 08536W 5932 04524 0110 +011 +002 130015 015 031 001 00
215330 2041N 08535W 5932 04524 0117 +007 +004 131016 018 031 001 00
215400 2038N 08534W 5935 04520 0112 +011 +001 124018 020 029 000 00
215430 2036N 08533W 5934 04521 0116 +010 -022 123020 020 030 000 00
215500 2034N 08531W 5933 04522 0118 +007 +000 117018 019 028 001 00
215530 2032N 08530W 5934 04519 0116 +010 -027 115016 017 028 000 00
215600 2030N 08529W 5932 04521 0108 +016 -049 124019 020 029 000 00
215630 2028N 08528W 5934 04520 0110 +014 -036 115019 020 028 000 00
215700 2026N 08527W 5934 04519 0107 +014 -022 116016 017 029 000 00

[xironman]

Florida straits, this run.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252207
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 13 20111025
215730 2023N 08525W 5934 04519 0115 +010 -031 109015 016 029 000 00
215800 2021N 08524W 5933 04520 0106 +016 -042 115017 018 029 000 00
215830 2019N 08523W 5934 04521 0101 +019 -047 116021 023 029 000 00
215900 2017N 08522W 5934 04520 0099 +019 -021 105024 026 028 000 00
215930 2015N 08521W 5935 04519 0097 +021 -030 107020 022 028 000 00
220000 2013N 08520W 5934 04520 0102 +019 -053 112018 019 028 000 00
220030 2010N 08519W 5934 04520 0108 +017 -076 117021 022 028 001 00
220100 2008N 08519W 5933 04520 0100 +022 -111 115023 024 030 000 00
220130 2005N 08519W 5936 04516 0098 +023 -093 118026 026 030 000 00
220200 2003N 08519W 5936 04517 0103 +020 -077 120026 026 030 000 00
220230 2001N 08518W 5938 04515 0103 +019 -061 115027 027 030 000 00
220300 1958N 08518W 5939 04514 0105 +019 -064 114026 026 030 000 00
220330 1956N 08518W 5937 04516 0103 +020 -065 117028 029 030 000 00
220400 1954N 08518W 5939 04512 0098 +023 -077 114027 028 028 001 00
220430 1952N 08518W 5939 04514 0102 +022 -077 111026 026 029 000 00
220500 1950N 08518W 5941 04511 0103 +020 -069 107026 026 029 000 00
220530 1948N 08517W 5939 04511 0098 +021 -067 104026 027 028 000 00
220600 1945N 08517W 5939 04510 0093 +024 -072 103026 026 028 000 00
220630 1943N 08517W 5941 04508 0089 +027 -085 096026 026 028 000 00
220700 1941N 08517W 5938 04511 0093 +025 -080 094026 026 029 000 00

[funster]

Forecast seems to be trending north with each new forecast. Looks like Rina wants to ruin the Halloween fun in s. Florida this weekend and make millions of children sad.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Its either a wobble or shes turning?... Any jog to the right and shes staying in water and missing the northeastern tip of the Yucatan.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252217
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 14 20111025
220730 1939N 08517W 5940 04510 0093 +024 -068 098025 025 029 000 00
220800 1937N 08517W 5939 04511 0093 +024 -065 098024 025 029 000 00
220830 1934N 08517W 5939 04510 0098 +020 -059 103025 026 029 000 00
220900 1932N 08516W 5939 04507 0098 +018 -044 100025 026 030 000 00
220930 1930N 08516W 5939 04506 0100 +016 -036 097025 026 030 000 00
221000 1928N 08516W 5939 04506 0101 +015 -036 100026 027 030 000 00
221030 1925N 08516W 5941 04506 0102 +015 -036 096027 028 030 000 00
221100 1923N 08516W 5940 04505 0098 +017 -034 097029 031 029 001 00
221130 1921N 08516W 5938 04507 0093 +020 -057 095031 031 030 000 00
221200 1918N 08516W 5940 04504 0095 +018 -055 093031 031 030 000 00
221230 1916N 08516W 5941 04500 0090 +020 -056 087032 032 029 000 00
221300 1914N 08515W 5940 04499 0080 +025 -073 086034 035 029 000 00
221330 1911N 08515W 5939 04500 0084 +022 -068 084036 037 030 000 00
221400 1909N 08515W 5942 04496 0076 +027 -081 084037 039 030 000 00
221430 1907N 08515W 5941 04496 0072 +029 -083 083039 040 030 000 00
221500 1905N 08515W 5956 04476 0076 +028 -073 082038 039 030 000 00
221530 1902N 08515W 6039 04363 0070 +038 -056 086035 036 031 000 00
221600 1900N 08515W 6127 04246 0067 +046 -044 085036 038 033 000 00
221630 1857N 08514W 6217 04127 0060 +058 -044 082039 039 033 000 00
221700 1855N 08514W 6267 04061 0057 +063 +000 083042 044 033 000 00

[wzrgirl1]

Forecast seems to be trending north with each new forecast. Looks like Rina wants to ruin the Halloween fun in s. Florida this weekend and make millions of children sad.

Was about to post the same thing regarding the trend. Now is when you should start looking for trends if any. So far a north trend by a degree if I am not mistaken. 1 degree or so each day can make a huge impact on the effects for us down here, a sheared tropical system is still a tropical system and as I was driving on I-75 today, I noticed there are still areas that have water ponding.

[xironman]

So far she has done a great job of fending off the dry air. I remember Derek saying that you need some other factors such as shear or land interaction to force the dry air into the cyclones center. All of which could happen as she gets into the channel.

I think that's highly likely. dry air forced into the system via strong shear. it could implode very quickly. we already have dry air over the gulf and another front is on the way. this autumnal air has already done a number to water temps in the northern gulf so it won't modify quickly. the water temps in the tampa bay area are near 70, well below normal for late october. for the locals, it's not fit to fall in...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah, there could be the forcing of dry air in, but it looks like she could be accelerating close to the path of the upper level winds. I don't think local water temperatures will be too significant. This one would be in and out before you know it.

Oh yeah forgot

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[HenkL]

Results of the G-IV mission so far, at the 500 hPa level.
Left of the wind barbs temperature and below that dewpoint in °C. The difference between those indicate the moisture of the air. Very dry near Yucatan.
The + without numbers indicates the latest position of hurricane Rina.

[Rainband]

Its either a wobble or shes turning?... Any jog to the right and shes staying in water and missing the northeastern tip of the Yucatan.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

highlight trop points on the map. She is on Track.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252227
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 15 20111025
221730 1852N 08514W 6364 03936 0055 +073 -011 081040 043 033 000 00
221800 1850N 08514W 6590 03647 0066 +082 +006 079046 049 033 000 00
221830 1847N 08514W 6795 03391 0074 +088 +042 077048 049 034 001 00
221900 1845N 08514W 6937 03218 0076 +094 +087 072045 047 033 004 00
221930 1843N 08513W 6954 03203 0072 +105 +048 074047 049 033 000 00
222000 1841N 08512W 6965 03189 0074 +102 +054 072048 050 033 001 00
222030 1840N 08511W 6960 03192 0073 +102 +046 073044 047 033 001 00
222100 1838N 08510W 6954 03199 0074 +101 +047 070046 049 034 000 00
222130 1836N 08509W 6961 03189 0076 +100 +037 067052 054 036 000 00
222200 1834N 08508W 6956 03195 0074 +101 +031 064054 054 037 002 03
222230 1832N 08507W 6967 03182 0074 +101 +035 064054 055 030 002 00
222300 1831N 08506W 6951 03200 0073 +099 +043 062057 058 032 001 00
222330 1829N 08505W 6953 03196 0071 +101 +043 062056 057 033 001 00
222400 1827N 08504W 6951 03200 0069 +104 +036 064048 052 035 000 00
222430 1825N 08503W 6950 03203 0069 +106 +033 065045 048 037 000 00
222500 1824N 08502W 6954 03203 0069 +109 +031 061045 047 038 001 00
222530 1822N 08500W 6954 03201 0073 +106 +025 062043 044 039 001 00
222600 1820N 08459W 6953 03200 0078 +100 +027 062047 047 039 001 00
222630 1818N 08458W 6952 03199 0080 +096 +031 066048 048 039 001 00
222700 1816N 08457W 6952 03196 0073 +099 +031 063047 048 038 001 00

Plane descended to operational level. It will do a NW-SE pass.

[HenkL]

000
URNT15 KWBC 252237
NOAA2 0518A RINA HDOB 16 20111025
222730 1815N 08456W 6952 03194 0071 +098 +035 067050 052 038 001 00
222800 1813N 08455W 6955 03187 0063 +099 +046 072049 049 041 002 00
222830 1811N 08454W 6956 03183 0052 +105 +059 071044 044 041 004 00
222900 1810N 08453W 6947 03190 0037 +113 +067 069041 042 042 008 00
222930 1808N 08452W 6961 03174 0037 +115 +069 062044 046 042 008 00
223000 1806N 08451W 6949 03188 0044 +109 +068 061048 051 040 009 00
223030 1804N 08450W 6968 03162 0046 +104 +075 061055 056 042 004 00
223100 1803N 08449W 6966 03159 0043 +101 +077 061057 057 043 005 00
223130 1801N 08448W 6962 03160 0043 +094 +087 066058 060 043 010 00
223200 1759N 08447W 6957 03161 0036 +092 +096 066062 064 046 015 00
223230 1758N 08446W 6962 03144 0033 +087 //// 063066 069 045 017 01
223300 1756N 08445W 6937 03171 0028 +087 //// 065067 071 052 031 01
223330 1754N 08444W 6905 03213 0033 +085 //// 065063 069 055 021 05
223400 1752N 08443W 6930 03177 0032 +083 //// 061062 064 047 007 01
223430 1751N 08442W 6950 03148 0021 +087 //// 063067 068 047 009 01
223500 1749N 08440W 6938 03152 0017 +081 //// 071072 073 050 007 01
223530 1747N 08439W 6960 03115 9998 +088 //// 071069 074 053 005 01
223600 1746N 08438W 6969 03092 9981 +092 +094 064068 069 055 004 00
223630 1744N 08437W 6953 03098 9969 +086 //// 061073 078 061 007 01
223700 1742N 08436W 6936 03101 9946 +088 //// 068084 089 062 010 01