ATL: IRENE - Models

[HurricaneWarning92]

Well strengthening over Cuba may not be credible... at all, but as for Florida, it is. Florida is VERY flat, specially SFL. In addition, the Everglades may even help this not weaken.

[Rgv20]

Its going to be interesting to see if the 0zCMC stays with its more westward solution of the 12z run.

[ROCK]

the ridge has retreated in Texas....thats promising....not so great for you floridians though on this run....

[Kory]

I want to see tonight's CMC and especially the Euro. If both agree, then things will get interesting.

They agreed a couple days ago and look what happened a few runs later...it shifted again.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm so between hours 114 and 132 it goes from 997MB to 993MB over the high mountains of Cuba....I don't think so.

I think it was WXMAN or another met that said GFS doesn't know how to handle island interaction, so to the model it's as if the islands are invisible, so yes, I'm sure it won't be even near this strength if it takes the path that GFS is showing

[Stormcenter]

Okay so how many days does this make it that these models are calling for a FL. hit or close call?

Anyway If this ever does develop then I would start feeling just a little concerned if I lived anywhere in Fl. JMHO

[gatorcane]

I want to see tonight's CMC and especially the Euro. If both agree, then things will get interesting.

The Euro has hit South Florida the past two runs in a row now (00Z and 12Z).

[HurricaneQueen]

[quote="Vortex"]H162 rides right up the spine of the state....near worst case scenario....

Took the words right out of my mouth. Been thinking that for the last 45 minutes or so. Fortunately, it is still early in the game and the intensity forecasts are wacky. Hopefully, we dodge another bullet.

Lynn

[Vortex]

Let's see so if I am reading that right. It makes landfall in Miami as a 986MB cane, and heads north up to Palm Beach over land mind you....and is a 982MB cane. Wow the GFS is going crazy.

Side note:
If you remember in 99' Irene came at us from the ssw and was strengthening as it was moving over southern FL...

[Steve H.]

Rock, get some sleep! There will be many more runs in the coming days that will change this. I think this system is destined for the GOM. The only concern I have is that troughs have been unusually strong in the East Coast this year. But in terms of climatology, this system should shift west in future runs. I am hoping this will shift west!

[WeatherEmperor]

Let's see so if I am reading that right. It makes landfall in Miami as a 986MB cane, and heads north up to Palm Beach over land mind you....and is a 982MB cane. Wow the GFS is going crazy.

Remember Fay in 2008? It actually got stronger while over land on the FL peninsula for a little while before getting weaker. In fact, I think it nearly reached hurricane status while over FL. So it is possible for this to happen. Not probable but possible.

[boca]

I hope S Florida ends up in the 5 day cone so it will miss us.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Katrina Also Strengthened over land I believe.

[Vortex]

Okay so how many days does this make it that these models are calling for a FL. hit or close call?

Anyway If this ever does develop then I would start feeling just a little concerned if I lived anywhere in Fl. JMHO

since the 00Z GFS run last Sunday night

[psyclone]

You realized how many cities the GFS has destroyed on its past runs? I'm not buying any of these shifts until we have a well established system in the Caribbean...it could curve northward to the east of Florida and not be a United States problem.

100% correct but not as exciting an option for weather nuts to contemplate. last year the gfs blew my house down about 9 times and killed me about 8 times. we had no storms approach my region last year.

[Blown Away]

Let's see so if I am reading that right. It makes landfall in Miami as a 986MB cane, and heads north up to Palm Beach over land mind you....and is a 982MB cane. Wow the GFS is going crazy.

Could not find a hurricane coming from the SE that went over Cuba/Hispaniola that landfalled as a major along the EC of SFL.

00z GFS track = Cleo track

[lonelymike]

Tonight's 00Z GFS should be rolling by now. Where are Micheal and ROCK??

I was watering my grass illegally... ..since they started mandatory rationing...

ok lets watch this....run

Ya know times are tough in TX when u have to urinate on your lawn to keep it growing

[caneseddy]

the ridge has retreated in Texas....thats promising....not so great for you floridians though on this run....

Ya think?????

[SouthDadeFish]

I hope S Florida ends up in the 5 day cone so it will miss us.

Lol I'm not too sure why people keep saying this. The NHC is getting better and better at track forecasting, and this saying may not be valid for much longer if it even works now.

[Stormcenter]

It (GFS) started with New Orleans and then moved eastward and to be honest with you hasn't really changed much since then.
But like you said until there is "actually" an established system out there the models are really worthless.....sorry to offend
model watchers. IMO

You realized how many cities the GFS has destroyed on its past runs? I'm not buying any of these shifts until we have a well established system in the Caribbean...it could curve northward to the east of Florida and not be a United States problem.