ATL: IRENE - Remnants - Discussion

[bella_may]

Does this thing look like it could get into the central GOM?

Some of the computer ensemble members say yes ... but the bulk of the current modeling suggests the Florida peninsula/Eastern Gulf.

Thank you

[northjaxpro]

would not be surprised to see the center migrate farther north towards the convection as time goes by tonight. very common to see that happen in systems like this.

Yeah I'd expect that to happen as well.

if it were to happens thats VERY bad news for the East coast, especially given the synoptics aloft favour a due north motion and that would allow it more time over condusive waters and less overland.

Yeah I agree, I just don't think the center will stay below 15N, somewhere between 15 and 16N under the big blob of convection.....I think it will jump around some the next 12 hours or so as it deepens, but jump northwards as the TUTT low off to the NW induces some light southerly shear to build the convection northwards. The system definitely seems to be gaining lattitude if you ask me.

Yes, it has very slowly gained in latitude since yesterday since it started to begin to organize and expand in size the past 24 hours.

[KWT]

Nothing...no West winds on this pass. Not even light winds.

Yeah not something you'd expect from a developing system to be honest...very interesting!

[cpdaman]

hoping recon samples the winds in the convective burst area near 16-16.5 N along 57.5 - 58w

[tolakram]

Hmm last few recon passes don't look all that impressive wind shift wise, maybe recon just hit an eddy last pass through or something?

Or it's being pulled north. Check out the convection wrapping to the north, pretty impressive site. One has to think an LLC will form somewhere in there.

[TwisterFanatic]

Doesn't look like Irene is born, yet.

[plasticup]

Does this thing look like it could get into the central GOM?

It is possible. Not the most likely outcome, but some models have shown it.

[cpdaman]

Doesn't look like Irene is born, yet.

lets wait till recon takes a look at the area of "nothing" near 16/ 57.5

[Aric Dunn]

If you look at their pass the wind shift was there just did not sample the area were any west winds would be... SSE winds to ene to NE winds.. pretty darn close. center is obviously broad and bouncing around.

[KWT]

Hmm last few recon passes don't look all that impressive wind shift wise, maybe recon just hit an eddy last pass through or something?

Or it's being pulled north. Check out the convection wrapping to the north, pretty impressive site. One has to think an LLC will form somewhere in there.

Could be, I suspect recon will have a look and even it doesn't it should get far enough north in the meantime to be able to confirm or rule that idea out.

also anybody note that wind shift much further south, exactly the same thing as Don and Emily had...interesting!

[ConvergenceZone]

Nothing...no West winds on this pass. Not even light winds.

wow, false alarm perhaps?? Perhaps we all jumped the gun thinking Irene,
well, if not tonight, then perhaps tomorrow morning.

[Aric Dunn]

Nothing...no West winds on this pass. Not even light winds.

Yeah not something you'd expect from a developing system to be honest...very interesting!

froward motion is the likely cause.

[ROCK]

looks tilted to the NE with the center down around 15N even though the heavy convection is east. Moving west....just my observation...

[brunota2003]

Nothing...no West winds on this pass. Not even light winds.

Yeah not something you'd expect from a developing system to be honest...very interesting!

froward motion is the likely cause.

I wonder just how fast forward it is moving...and it does seem like they missed the "center" just to the east.

[KWT]

Nothing...no West winds on this pass. Not even light winds.

wow, false alarm perhaps?? Perhaps we all jumped the gun thinking Irene,
well, if not tonight, then perhaps tomorrow morning.

I personally did think it was quite poorly organised, which is why i was a little surprised the Vortex message came through!

[Gustywind]

Martinique : Rain but no winds. The weather report is late so we are always in yellow alert.
Chris: Do you have some news in sainte lucia?

Madinina, I've just checked again and no weather report at the local Saint Lucia met office site since yesterday at 6 pm. The three day forecast is for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday....
But given the location being highlighted here of the centre of the system and the wind speeds from the recon, I think we are both due to get some strong winds and plenty of rain tonight as there doesn't seem much movement to the north. Maybe Gusty has some more up to date information?

Here are the latest news from Meteo-France Martinica my friend:
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_mart.php
You can also read this weather forecast for Martinica given Meteo-France Martinica : http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... ivi_ma.pdf

The time for the next few hours on Martinique

Animated radar is updated every 15 mins, the satellite animation is updated hourly and forecast bulletin at least every 3 hours during the day.

Weather France Martinique, good evening.

5: 30 Pm the level of vigilance is yellow because of heavy rains and thunderstorms.

Time does not change in the beginning of the evening, there will still be low rain to moderate sometimes accompanied by thunderstorms. Largest storm-storm worsening is expected during night.

Next newsletter at 20: 30.

[brunota2003]

000
URNT15 KNHC 202153
AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 31 20110820
214330 1501N 05758W 9597 00415 0067 +215 +077 071017 018 025 000 00
214400 1503N 05758W 9597 00414 0066 +220 +078 076016 019 023 001 00
214430 1504N 05758W 9600 00412 0066 +217 +080 076014 015 025 001 00
214500 1506N 05758W 9608 00404 0066 +216 +082 074014 015 025 000 00
214530 1508N 05758W 9593 00418 0065 +216 +083 076016 016 026 001 00
214600 1509N 05758W 9596 00415 0065 +220 +083 079015 016 023 002 00
214630 1511N 05758W 9602 00410 0066 +220 +083 071016 017 025 000 00
214700 1512N 05758W 9592 00418 0065 +218 +084 076014 016 024 001 00
214730 1514N 05758W 9598 00413 0065 +220 +083 077015 017 024 001 00
214800 1515N 05758W 9596 00416 0066 +217 +082 072016 017 024 001 00
214830 1517N 05758W 9591 00420 0069 +202 +082 082019 020 032 006 00
214900 1518N 05757W 9601 00411 0071 +189 +081 079021 022 031 006 00
214930 1520N 05757W 9586 00424 0070 +201 +078 083020 022 033 005 00
215000 1521N 05757W 9604 00408 0071 +197 +078 084020 020 032 004 00
215030 1523N 05757W 9597 00417 0067 +220 +076 088019 020 027 002 00
215100 1524N 05757W 9590 00422 0068 +220 +076 090021 021 026 001 00
215130 1526N 05757W 9600 00414 0068 +220 +079 091022 022 025 000 00
215200 1528N 05757W 9593 00419 0068 +220 +080 092021 022 025 001 00
215230 1529N 05757W 9596 00417 0068 +221 +081 093021 021 025 001 00
215300 1531N 05757W 9594 00418 0069 +220 +083 093022 023 025 001 03
$$
;

[ConvergenceZone]

Nothing...no West winds on this pass. Not even light winds.

wow, false alarm perhaps?? Perhaps we all jumped the gun thinking Irene,
well, if not tonight, then perhaps tomorrow morning.

I personally did think it was quite poorly organised, which is why i was a little surprised the Vortex message came through!

KWT, do you think Irene or depression by tomorrow morning? or do you think it will wait until tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night?

[Nimbus]

Storm relative motion its essentially a 25 knot tropical depression clipping along to the west at over 15 knots. All the dynamics are likely there for a TD, it just needs to slow down a little before they can declare it.

[tolakram]