ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[Turtle]

New GFS showing widesperad 1+" across border at hour 69. Best GFS run I've seen in a while, but I can't get my hopes up.

[clfenwi]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm thinking there's not enough organization for advisories to being immediately. Winds defining the circulation are weak; the TS winds were fairly well removed from notional center. I expect NHC to up % to 90 or near 100 for the 8 PM TWO with "TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM AT ANY TIME" wording.

Confident enough to post this; not so confident that I didn't cage a bird so that serving of crow may occur at any time, if necessary.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012200
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 35 20110901
215030 2600N 09206W 9591 00443 0081 +256 +235 316014 014 023 000 03
215100 2601N 09205W 9590 00442 0079 +260 +226 316015 017 022 000 03
215130 2603N 09204W 9590 00443 0080 +261 +222 320017 017 024 000 00
215200 2604N 09202W 9591 00441 0078 +263 +221 323017 017 024 000 00
215230 2605N 09201W 9592 00438 0076 +263 +220 324016 017 024 000 03
215300 2606N 09159W 9592 00437 0075 +265 +219 321016 017 023 000 03
215330 2608N 09158W 9592 00438 0076 +266 +219 324016 017 023 000 00
215400 2609N 09157W 9590 00441 0078 +263 +225 331017 017 023 000 00
215430 2610N 09156W 9591 00441 0078 +262 +227 331016 017 023 000 00
215500 2612N 09154W 9591 00442 0078 +261 +225 335016 016 023 000 03
215530 2613N 09153W 9591 00441 0078 +261 +228 334015 016 022 000 00
215600 2614N 09152W 9592 00441 0078 +261 +229 336014 014 023 000 00
215630 2616N 09150W 9593 00440 0078 +262 +224 335012 013 021 000 00
215700 2617N 09149W 9592 00441 0079 +259 +225 332009 009 021 000 00
215730 2618N 09148W 9592 00441 0079 +257 +230 330008 008 022 000 03
215800 2619N 09146W 9594 00440 0081 +256 +233 332008 008 020 000 00
215830 2620N 09145W 9591 00442 0081 +256 +231 343007 007 021 000 03
215900 2621N 09143W 9593 00441 0081 +253 +238 331007 008 021 000 00
215930 2622N 09141W 9593 00441 0081 +253 +235 326007 008 019 000 00
220000 2623N 09139W 9592 00442 0081 +255 +231 344004 006 019 000 00

[indian]

is it my eyes or has the circulation went due west a little?

[craptacular]

Looks like they are going right back to that potential center found at 2126Z.

[Dave]

[underthwx]

Aric...too many negative vibes going on around here in Texas concerning our rain chances from 93L...its a little too soon to give up on this...im keeping the faith....gonna take a little longer to convince me...maybe im in denial....

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012210
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 36 20110901
220030 2623N 09137W 9595 00438 0081 +258 +221 345004 004 018 000 00
220100 2623N 09135W 9594 00439 0080 +257 +222 316004 004 018 000 00
220130 2624N 09134W 9590 00444 0081 +256 +224 321002 004 018 000 00
220200 2626N 09132W 9591 00443 0082 +255 +223 085002 003 018 000 00
220230 2627N 09131W 9593 00442 0081 +255 +224 151001 002 018 000 00
220300 2628N 09130W 9591 00443 0082 +257 +225 189001 002 017 000 00
220330 2630N 09128W 9591 00445 0083 +257 +227 158002 002 017 000 00
220400 2631N 09127W 9541 00491 0084 +253 +225 194002 003 018 000 00
220430 2632N 09125W 9348 00671 0083 +240 +218 196004 004 019 000 00
220500 2633N 09123W 9204 00805 0082 +233 +206 160002 003 016 000 03
220530 2633N 09121W 9241 00771 0081 +235 +205 172002 002 017 000 00
220600 2634N 09119W 9238 00770 0078 +239 +201 158002 002 017 000 03
220630 2634N 09118W 9237 00771 0078 +237 +207 164001 001 016 000 00
220700 2634N 09116W 9237 00770 0077 +236 +209 160000 001 017 000 00
220730 2635N 09114W 9240 00770 0078 +236 +208 193000 001 016 000 03
220800 2636N 09113W 9237 00773 0080 +233 +212 177002 002 /// /// 03
220830 2638N 09113W 9238 00772 0081 +233 +213 152003 003 /// /// 03
220900 2639N 09115W 9236 00776 0081 +235 +210 136004 005 /// /// 03
220930 2638N 09117W 9238 00772 0080 +238 +204 106005 005 /// /// 03
221000 2637N 09118W 9238 00773 0081 +238 +204 097004 005 /// /// 03

[Radiogirltx]

( throws herself on the ground kicking and screaming)
No, No, No! This can't be! This was supposed to be Texas' storm. Our rainmaker! We need this, hell, we deserve this. We've suffered enough! Waaaaah! ( anyone care to join me in this temper tantrum? Lol!)

Well. I've decided I'm much better following storms that dont have the potential to effect me. lol!

[Ixolib]

Pretty much over the loop right now, wouldn't you say???

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-rb.html

[HenkL]

Here we are. Center confirmed at 2202Z, around 26°25'N 91°33'W. Extrapolated SLP: 1008.

[Dave]

[galvestontx]

is it my eyes or has the circulation went due west a little?

I agree

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 012220
NOAA2 01HHA INVEST HDOB 37 20110901
221030 2635N 09118W 9236 00773 0080 +237 +207 052002 003 /// /// 03
221100 2634N 09116W 9236 00773 0080 +235 +210 339002 002 /// /// 03
221130 2635N 09114W 9237 00775 0082 +233 +211 285001 002 /// /// 03
221200 2636N 09113W 9237 00773 0082 +233 +212 174002 002 /// /// 03
221230 2638N 09113W 9236 00775 0081 +233 +213 145003 003 /// /// 03
221300 2639N 09115W 9236 00775 0081 +235 +211 132005 005 /// /// 03
221330 2639N 09117W 9235 00776 0082 +238 +205 103005 005 /// /// 03
221400 2637N 09118W 9235 00775 0080 +239 +204 095005 005 /// /// 03
221430 2635N 09118W 9238 00773 0081 +239 +202 070003 004 /// /// 03
221500 2634N 09116W 9235 00775 0081 +235 +207 351002 002 /// /// 03
221530 2634N 09114W 9131 00874 0081 +227 +205 219001 001 016 000 03
221600 2635N 09112W 8930 01069 0082 +217 +195 232001 002 017 000 00
221630 2635N 09110W 8606 01395 0085 +201 +179 048002 004 019 000 00
221700 2635N 09108W 8241 01768 0080 +183 +165 047002 003 022 000 03
221730 2636N 09106W 7964 02060 0074 +173 +141 089001 002 025 001 03
221800 2637N 09104W 7735 02309 0076 +158 +126 147004 006 017 000 00
221830 2638N 09102W 7568 02495 0066 +158 +107 139005 006 020 004 03
221900 2638N 09100W 7435 02650 0070 +149 +100 209002 003 027 001 00
221930 2639N 09058W 7240 02875 0070 +136 +094 119004 005 020 000 00
222000 2639N 09056W 7092 03050 0070 +124 +083 125004 005 020 000 00

[clfenwi]

from the HPC model diagnostic discussion earlier this afternoon

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
233 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2011


...DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PREFERENCE... 12Z GFS/NHC

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS HIGHLIGHTING THIS AREA AS A HIGH
RISK OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. THE
12Z NAM IS QUICKEST TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM AND ALSO TRACKS IT
FARTHEST NORTHEAST LIKE THE WEAKER 12Z GFS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE 09Z SREF MEAN SHOWS A SIMILAR EVOLUTION.
THE 12Z CANADIAN TAKES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER. THE 12Z UKMET/ECMWF LIE OFFSHORE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
THROUGH F84 LIKE MANY OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BUT THE ECMWF
HAS NUDGED FARTHER NORTH FROM ITS 00Z RUN. THE SUITE OF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS QUITE SPREAD OUT BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE HPC-NHC
CONFERENCE CALL LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION FROM DAY 3
ONWARD. PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

[Dave]

[Brent]

RENUMBER al93 al13

[Dave]

Here we are. Center confirmed at 2202Z, around 26°25'N 91°33'W. Extrapolated SLP: 1008.

Do we have an upgrade or not Henk?

[cycloneye]

RENUMBER al93 al13

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al132011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109012228
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[lebron23]

...lol

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif