ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

GFDL is VERY interesting and much further west, thats because the system is weaker then some of the other models suggest only just reaching hurricane status...so it probably doesn't have a very strong core and so would have a better chance of rebounding.

The track is one that I'm fretting about....its the sort of solution that is probably the worst case for the Bahamas and E.coast because the system will be weaker as the upper trough moves along...it means a stalled storm probably in/near the Bahamas at 144hrs...

[KWT]

GFDL suggests hispaniola and then Bahamas FWIW people...

SDF, yep thats probably the case, though the consensus is a touch east of that forecast.

[HurricaneWarning92]

its shifting westwards and we are still 6 days out. Nothing is guaranteed yet.

[ROCK]

thats one mean trof to erode the ridge enough pull this out of the caribbean.....I am not in agreement until I see the EURO tonight....

[TheDreamTraveler]

This is why it's always good to never be so sure about a solution this far out if you're looking at computer models. They are never full-proof. The west trend is starting to become very prominent and is something everyone will have to watch very carefully. If anything, this could be as close as Earl was last year if it continues. We'll have to wait a few more days until the model guidance really gets into agreement before we can be sure.

[gatorcane]

GFDL has it heading NW in the Bahamas but looks like it would still miss Florida and the United States mainland.

Near miss on Puerto Rico though.

[KWT]

thats one mean trof to erode the ridge enough pull this out of the caribbean.....I am not in agreement until I see the EURO tonight....

Its not thast strong of a trough but its just consistant and so once a system is caught in the net its eventually going to get swept up, the key is for the system to stay weak enough and far enough south not to get caught up in the first place...once it starts going north its game over, there is nowhere near enough ridging potenial to drag it much westwards once it starts to get to 25-30N...the lonfer it stays south of 25N the more the chances of a threat increases, esp to the Bahamas.

[Dean4Storms]

For those of you asking why this system won't come into the Gulf, it would help to look at the steering pattern that is predicted to be in place by the middle of next week as this projected storm reaches passes the NE Caribbean. Note the high center ENE of the hurricane symbol and the trof immediately in the path of the storm. Also note the flow across the central to western Caribbean. There's nothing to steer it toward the Gulf if it takes a southern track. The one chance would be if that trof off the east coast lifts out unexpectedly and high pressure builds back in. That's probably not likely, but there could be a threat to the east coast.

No doubt unless the trough does not dig that deep and the ridge over the CONUS slides back east and ridges out to the ridge in the Atlantic. Will have to watch and see if the models keep with the trough digging that far. Going to be interesting, they always are!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 91, 2011073100, , BEST, 0, 128N, 498W, 30, 1008, LO

[cycloneye]

00z Models

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 310039
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0039 UTC SUN JUL 31 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912011) 20110731 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        110731  0000   110731  1200   110801  0000   110801  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.8N  49.8W   13.8N  52.8W   14.4N  55.6W   14.8N  58.5W
BAMD    12.8N  49.8W   13.7N  52.5W   14.3N  55.0W   14.7N  57.3W
BAMM    12.8N  49.8W   13.6N  52.6W   14.1N  55.1W   14.2N  57.5W
LBAR    12.8N  49.8W   13.8N  52.9W   14.7N  55.8W   15.4N  58.5W
SHIP        30KTS          37KTS          46KTS          54KTS
DSHP        30KTS          37KTS          46KTS          54KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        110802  0000   110803  0000   110804  0000   110805  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.2N  60.9W   16.2N  65.7W   17.6N  70.1W   19.7N  73.5W
BAMD    15.0N  59.5W   16.0N  63.2W   18.3N  66.8W   21.8N  70.1W
BAMM    14.4N  59.8W   15.3N  63.9W   17.7N  67.4W   21.1N  70.3W
LBAR    16.1N  61.0W   17.6N  65.0W   19.8N  67.8W   23.0N  70.4W
SHIP        64KTS          77KTS          83KTS          80KTS
DSHP        64KTS          77KTS          81KTS          78KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.8N LONCUR =  49.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
LATM12 =  12.1N LONM12 =  46.5W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 =  15KT
LATM24 =  10.1N LONM24 =  44.6W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM


[KWT]

Very close to 50W and also getting quite close to recon time as well...

I suspect recon will find something very close to a TS by the time it goes in, I think its going to be a close call though for sure!

[Battlebrick]

when does recon go out?

[KWT]

Ships are further west compared to what they were this time yesterday, BAMD is quite abit west of where it was, though heading quite clsoe to NW by 120hrs, pretty similar to GFDL but a little east...

Increasingly becoming a problem for PR/Hispaniola looking at tonights models...no denying the west trend either.

[TheBurn]

[cycloneye]

when does recon go out?

Tommorow at 11:30 AM EDT.

[KWT]

TheBurn, cool images, convection is a little thin on the ground there to be fair, but I would think Dmax tomorrow will take care of that side of things.

[cycloneye]

Amazing consensus over or very close to PR ,and then look where they go after.

[KWT]

cycloneye, looks like they slowly bringing at least the T&C's into play, though that would likely require track right over Hispaniola which would greatly weaken any well organised system...

Bahamas also seem to be coming into frame, though models are thus far still recurving at a safe distance from the US east coast.

[Evil Jeremy]

Using the magic power of photoshop (ok, Macromedia Fireworks), I overlayed the 18z suite with the 12z suite (with 00z and 18z BAMs). Overall trend is slightly south and west:

12z:


18z:

[TheDreamTraveler]

Using the magic power of photoshop (ok, Macromedia Fireworks), I overlayed the 18z suite with the 12z suite (with 00z and 18z BAMs). Overall trend is slightly south and west:

12z:


18z:

The west trend is really becoming noticeable. If this keeps continuing then it'd be hard to rule out any type of east coast interaction.