ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Yeah looks like the models are showing a big trough in the long-range along the eastern seaboard of the United States...nothing new. This has been the pattern for months now and for the last 4 Cape Verde systems that try to head west.

[SoupBone]

Tolak, quick question since there's a current lull with everything going on. Why doesn't S2K add the disclaimer to everyone profile as an automatically generated sig? Seems a lot easier than reminding people. I very rarely throw out any info that would be considered a forecast, but when I do I don't ever remember to add it.

And Wxman, how far south is that front supposed to dip down?

[tobol.7uno]

Looks like it could move all of the way through the Caribbean into the GOM.

[tobol.7uno]

I'm sort of curious as to what track this will take. I see no reason for significant gain of latitude... maybe a smoothed slightly north of west motion till the Caribbean?

I don't see too much mystery as to its most likely track. Models are in very good agreement in taking it to the NE Caribbean late Friday or on Saturday morning then slowly northwestward toward PR/DR. Very deep trof developing along the East U.S. Coast this weekend and early next week should allow for recurvature well east of the U.S. next week. This is probably true whether or not it develops. That's a fairly strong cold front projected to be across the southern and eastern Gulf early next week. Should prevent any movement in that direction.

Conditions in its path don't look too favorable for development, and it doesn't look very impressive on satellite. Might have a shot at developing by Wednesday afternoon, but it may be another struggling TS as it nears the eastern Caribbean.

Good agreement??? Have you even seen the models? The consensus model does bring it into the Caribbean, but they are all over the place. I think the NE Carribean is the best solution, but it to early to set that in stone. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al982011.png?0.6780400197721597

[wxman57]

And Wxman, how far south is that front supposed to dip down?

Southern Gulf / Yucatan / Western Cuba / South Florida. Of course, it won't have much of a temperature gradient that far south. You'll see some cooler air there in south Louisiana, though.

[wxman57]

Looks like it could move all of the way through the Caribbean into the GOM.

I wouldn't make that assumption. Should be a fairly strong cold front across the southern Gulf by this weekend and early next week.

[tobol.7uno]

NHC has bumped it up to 60% models still lost...

[tobol.7uno]

GFS guidance wants to go west...

[Hylian Auree]

What's your reasoning, the current model plots??

Hey tolakram. I apologize for not being more specific.
My reasoning is in part the fact that this is a broad system and likely a slow developer as well. Without significant development, I think it'll follow the generally westward steering currents to near the Caribbean along the very strong deep ridge to its north. Some models even show the ridge strengthening and building slightly southward near the northern Caribbean, so that further leads me to believe it'll be a low tracker. What happens beyond the Caribbean is harder to say, partially due to the effects of the trough wxman mentioned, precisely when they will occur and how large the weakness will be, making long range forecasts a bit more difficult (obviously).

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hylian Auree]

The GFS has consistently made this a very low tracker till it enters the Caribbean, and with the ridge building north of the Carib and the system likely remaining broad and weak I kind of think it's a very logical solution. Personally I'm putting my trust in the GFS for this one.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Nimbus]

Well 97L and 99L poofed but it looks like 98L will make it to the Hebert box in some form. Still some shear and relatively dry air to traverse though. The front that took Maria out dug all the way to Jamaica so I'm not real worried about the gulf yet.

[gatorcane]

Well 97L and 99L poofed but it looks like 98L will make it to the Hebert box in some form. Still some shear and relatively dry air to traverse though. The front that took Maria out dug all the way to Jamaica so I'm not real worried about the gulf yet.

Yeah, maybe to the Hebert box, but several CV systems this year have and they have recurved well east of the U.S. as they start a recurve path somewhere in the Eastern or Central Caribbean

This one looks like it is headed down a similar path as Wxman suggests as models prog a huge trough to dig way down into the SE CONUS, through South Florida by early to mid next week.

Word of the 2011 season: TROUGH

[Blown Away]

Well 97L and 99L poofed but it looks like 98L will make it to the Hebert box in some form. Still some shear and relatively dry air to traverse though. The front that took Maria out dug all the way to Jamaica so I'm not real worried about the gulf yet.

Yeah, maybe to the Hebert box, but several CV systems this year have and they have recurved well east of the U.S. as they start a recurve path somewhere in the Eastern or Central Caribbean

This one looks like it is headed down a similar path as Wxman suggests as models prog a huge trough to dig way down into the SE CONUS, through South Florida by early to mid next week.

Word of the 2011 season: TROUGH

No doubt, but this one could sneak far enough W and get pulled N close to SFL. Looks like some of the models still heading W under Hispaniola.

[tobol.7uno]

The GFS has consistently made this a very low tracker till it enters the Caribbean, and with the ridge building north of the Carib and the system likely remaining broad and weak I kind of think it's a very logical solution. Personally I'm putting my trust in the GFS for this one.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

I have not seen enough to make an assumption yet.

[wxman57]

Good agreement??? Have you even seen the models? The consensus model does bring it into the Caribbean, but they are all over the place. I think the NE Carribean is the best solution, but it to early to set that in stone. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al982011.png?0.6780400197721597

Yes, I'm quite familiar with the models, and they are in quite good agreement in taking the system into the NE Caribbean late Friday or on Saturday morning. You have to ignore that Clipper model and LBAR and the various non-dynamic BAM models. Canadian is the only model that skirts it north of the NE Caribbean, but it develops it much more quickly and stronger than the other models, which is most likely wrong.

[Hylian Auree]

wxman - which of the BAM models are non dynamic? Unless it's all of them.

[ConvergenceZone]

We should feel lucky that this is turning out to be an incredibly slow September...Wow, I think we all expected a bunch of
activity....Just not happening this year.

[dwsqos2]

How unfortunate; another dud; the EPAC will probably produce a major hurricane within a week as well. This season has been dreadfully forecast.

Hahahahahaha!!!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

How unfortunate; another dud; the EPAC will probably produce a major hurricane within a week as well. This season has been dreadfully forecast.

Hahahahahaha!!!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It is kinda funny how everything just completely died off in September. .... A bunch of wimpy invests don't make for an active September. Not complaining, just observing... I'm skeptical that it will get going again I could be wrong, but I could also be right..

[fci]

Well 97L and 99L poofed but it looks like 98L will make it to the Hebert box in some form. Still some shear and relatively dry air to traverse though. The front that took Maria out dug all the way to Jamaica so I'm not real worried about the gulf yet.

Yeah, maybe to the Hebert box, but several CV systems this year have and they have recurved well east of the U.S. as they start a recurve path somewhere in the Eastern or Central Caribbean

This one looks like it is headed down a similar path as Wxman suggests as models prog a huge trough to dig way down into the SE CONUS, through South Florida by early to mid next week.

Word of the 2011 season: TROUGH

No doubt, but this one could sneak far enough W and get pulled N close to SFL. Looks like some of the models still heading W under Hispaniola.

I have to concur with wxman and the way almost all CV storms have headed this season and the climatological pattern of late September that this one won't get close to SFL unless it is as an open wave which is a non-issue anyway.
IMO, our sights (those of us in South Florida) need to refocus to the NW Carib as fronts start getting down here and the ends of them are left in the bath waters of the NW Carib and troughs drag whatever develops NE towards SFL.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.