ATL: Ex INVEST 92L - Discussion

[ROCK]

MJO forecast from 8-13th

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

[maxintensity]

I just don't see a Katrina or Rita type of track with this hold that the High pressure has on us. It will be our saving grace from hurricanes and storms, but certainly not from the drought and heat!

Yep, I agree. If it reaches the NW Caribbean then a west track toward Mexico or perhaps the lower TX coast would be possible, but that ridge should hold firm over SE TX/LA/MS.

Unfortunately it is not that clear cut. According to NOAA, "Predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not reliably predictable weeks or months in advance." It's impossible to say where 92L or any system after that will make final landfall. I'm hopeful the science will be there in the future, but until then, we can only speculate. I remember 5 days prior to landfall katrina was supposed to smash into florida and LA was not even in the cone of uncertainty. It was never supposed to cross 85W. 5 days later it killed over 1,000 people in LA with a direct strike. Needless to say, it's way too soon to know where 92L will go.

[SoupBone]

I just don't see a Katrina or Rita type of track with this hold that the High pressure has on us. It will be our saving grace from hurricanes and storms, but certainly not from the drought and heat!

Yep, I agree. If it reaches the NW Caribbean then a west track toward Mexico or perhaps the lower TX coast would be possible, but that ridge should hold firm over SE TX/LA/MS.

Unfortunately it is not that clear cut. According to NOAA, "Predicting where and when hurricanes will strike is related to daily weather patterns, which are not reliably predictable weeks or months in advance." It's impossible to say where 92L or any system after that will make final landfall. I'm hopeful the science will be there in the future, but until then, we can only speculate. I remember 5 days prior to landfall katrina was supposed to smash into florida and LA was not even in the cone of uncertainty. It was never supposed to cross 85W. 5 days later it killed over 1,000 people in LA with a direct strike. Needless to say, it's way too soon to know where 92L will go.

You do realize you're telling this to a well respected professional meteorologist correct? I believe that I can safely say that there is no one that knows where this thing will go, but this is what the board is all about. Discussing potential storms....

[Kory]

I just don't see a Katrina or Rita type of track with this hold that the High pressure has on us. It will be our saving grace from hurricanes and storms, but certainly not from the drought and heat!

Yep, I agree. If it reaches the NW Caribbean then a west track toward Mexico or perhaps the lower TX coast would be possible, but that ridge should hold firm over SE TX/LA/MS.

for 2 weeks this ridge is going to hold firm? we shall see....I have doubts...

If you haven't noticed that ridge has been there for at least a month or two. What do you think has kept Texas so dry and hot? Also there has been a persistent East Coast trough which would turn anything out to sea before it hits the United States. I see no signs of it moving, but remember if a strong storm finds even the smallest weakness in the ridge it will go northward.


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[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 09N24W TO 18N22W MOVING W AT
10-15 KT. SHORTWAVE INFRARED METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A BROAD LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE
VICINITY OF 11N23W...WHICH IS PRIMARILY A MONSOON TROUGH GYRE
ENCOMPASSING MOST OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP-LAYERED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES LOCATED SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...HOWEVER
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH BETWEEN 20W-31W.

[SETXPTNeches]

That was going to be my question...how much longer is this High pressure ridge expected to stay in place and where do you find that info (in a graph)? I usually don't get too worried about TX until the end of August, middle of September...that seems to be the time that we really need to pay attention. This heat is brutal, though, need some relief, I am just afraid it will come in the form of something similar to Rita or Ike..

[mutley]

MJO forecast from 8-13th

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

If you don't mind. What does the MJO stand for?

[wxman57]

Yes, the ridge has been sitting over the Southern Plains for 3 or more months, so there's no reason to think it will pack up and move out in the next 2 weeks. In fact, the GFS indicates the ridge will strengthen the 3rd week of August. The ridge should prevent movement of storms toward the upper TX coast eastward through Louisiana as long as it's in place. NE Gulf coast, FL, and the Carolinas are not protected, though.

[x-y-no]

MJO forecast from 8-13th

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

If you don't mind. What does the MJO stand for?

MJO is the Madden–Julian oscillation. It's a phenomenon which propagates west to east around the tropics and manifests as suppressed/enhanced tendency for convection and rainfall.

[mutley]

MJO forecast from 8-13th

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

If you don't mind. What does the MJO stand for?

MJO is the Madden–Julian oscillation. It's a phenomenon which propagates west to east around the tropics and manifests as suppressed/enhanced tendency for convection and rainfall.

Thanks a lot. Learning so much here.

[NDG]

Yes, the ridge has been sitting over the Southern Plains for 3 or more months, so there's no reason to think it will pack up and move out in the next 2 weeks. In fact, the GFS indicates the ridge will strengthen the 3rd week of August. The ridge should prevent movement of storms toward the upper TX coast eastward through Louisiana as long as it's in place. NE Gulf coast, FL, and the Carolinas are not protected, though.

Yeah I agree wxman57, I have been saying for the last couple of weeks that FL to the Carolinas is where the weakness has been for tropical systems coming in from the eastern Caribbean would track close to this general area. No signs of the pattern changing.

[wxman57]

I think that the pattern will change - the ridge will move out - but it may take the transition toward fall in the first few weeks of September to open up the NW Gulf.

[NDG]

92L still has broad cyclonic circulation but it lacks some more deep convection. It has been loosing some of the support for development little by little from the GFS in its last two runs.

[NDG]

I think that the pattern will change - the ridge will move out - but it may take the transition toward fall in the first few weeks of September to open up the NW Gulf.

I sure hope for all of you in TX that it changes eventually, you may not need a hurricane but you desperate need the rains from a tropical system.

[mutley]

I think that the pattern will change - the ridge will move out - but it may take the transition toward fall in the first few weeks of September to open up the NW Gulf.

I sure hope for all of you in TX that it changes eventually, you may not need a hurricane but you desperate need the rains from a tropical system.

Ditto. Hopefully, Texas will get a reprieve soon. They are in a desperate drought situation.

[HurricaneFan]

MJO forecast from 8-13th

http://www.icess.ucsb.edu/asr/MJO_current_run.htm

So how long will this positive phase of the MJO last?
What about September and October?

[cycloneye]

Rotation looks good but lacks convection.

[Gustywind]

Rotation looks good but lacks convection.
http://i.imgur.com/e6zSc.gif

Looks like. What are the latest estimations Cycloneye, the best track?

[cycloneye]

What are the latest estimations Cycloneye, the best track?

Gusty, no best track updates have been released this morning.

[SFLcane]

Eastern tropical atlantic is closed for business for the time being...