ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Vortex]

Large hot-tower now firing. Chances looking a lot better now for development.

[img]http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/nexsat/thumbs/region_size/CONUS/focus_regions/NorthAmerica-CONUS-East/South-x-x/precip/geo_blended/20110717.1132.goes13.rain.nexsat_CONUS_SouthEast.0.jpg[/ig]

ITs quickly organizing and surface obs indicate a better low level wind field. also signs of some small but distinct banding features starting to develop.

Agree aric...

[shortwave]

here in palm bay can see some low cumulus along with a nice breeze swinging north to south

[Aric Dunn]

here in palm bay can see some low cumulus along with a nice breeze swinging north to south

yeah Im in satellite beach can see a few cloud lines off shore.

[jinftl]

So here's the $64,000 question that probably can't be answered but I am going to ask it anyways - is this going to have a meaningful impact on florida or is it going stay to our east and, in time, move off to the north and east???

[cycloneye]

Recon will fly

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE AREA LATER TODAY.


http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

[Kingarabian]

So here's the $64,000 question that probably can't be answered but I am going to ask it anyways - is this going to have a meaningful impact on florida or is it going stay to our east and, in time, move off to the north and east???

I wish to know as well. Got a lotta family around those parts.

[cycloneye]

Recon is a go

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE AREA LATER TODAY.

[jinftl]

There is something about awaking to seeing your area in an orange circle that hopefully forgives the question i asked...i know it can not be answered with any certainty

So here's the $64,000 question that probably can't be answered but I am going to ask it anyways - is this going to have a meaningful impact on florida or is it going stay to our east and, in time, move off to the north and east???

I wish to know as well. Got a lotta family around those parts.

[Aric Dunn]

So here's the $64,000 question that probably can't be answered but I am going to ask it anyways - is this going to have a meaningful impact on florida or is it going stay to our east and, in time, move off to the north and east???

I wish to know as well. Got a lotta family around those parts.

Should continue to drift south till tomorrow then start moving w to WNW the start to turn more NW to NNW eventually NE... but it is highly likely that it will either cross the florida coast or scrape the length of the coast..

[Blown Away]

I'm at 27.3/80.2 and it is a bright sunny morning with gentle breeze. LOL, no signs of that big blob offshore. I can't remember a low drifting down from the north that developed into a TD or more and moved over Florida.

[jinftl]

Conditions out of West End, Grand Bahama (northwestern most island of the Bahamas)

At midnight, winds were SE at 6mph and the pressure was 30.02".

At 8:30 am, winds were W at 13 mph and pressure was 29.98".


http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MSPGF1

[NDG]

I don't think the system will move much over the next 48-72 hrs, it will move either to SSW or SSE very slowly, but it is not going to be picked up by the trough. Right now the strong midwest ridge is far northwest to not feel its tentacles for this time period, but as the ridge is forecasted to eventually move very slowly eastward and as the same time an Atlantic ridge moves westward, 98L will move westward across the Peninsula. But the question is how are the UL conditions going to be.

[TheBurn]

[Aric Dunn]

I don't think the system will move much over the next 48-72 hrs, it will move either to SSW or SSE very slowly, but it is not going to be picked up by the trough. Right now the strong midwest ridge is far northwest to not feel its tentacles for this time period, but as the ridge is forecasted to eventually move very slowly eastward and as the same time an Atlantic ridge moves westward, 98L will move westward across the Peninsula. But the question is how are the UL conditions going to be.

and how quickly can it establish a well defined LLC

[plasticup]

Sweet. Convection really blew up this morning - I bet they find a TS.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 98, 2011071712, , BEST, 0, 282N, 788W, 20, 1014, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[NDG]

I don't think the system will move much over the next 48-72 hrs, it will move either to SSW or SSE very slowly, but it is not going to be picked up by the trough. Right now the strong midwest ridge is far northwest to not feel its tentacles for this time period, but as the ridge is forecasted to eventually move very slowly eastward and as the same time an Atlantic ridge moves westward, 98L will move westward across the Peninsula. But the question is how are the UL conditions going to be.

and how quickly can it establish a well defined LLC

If it stays offshore long enough it may have a good chance, IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

I don't think the system will move much over the next 48-72 hrs, it will move either to SSW or SSE very slowly, but it is not going to be picked up by the trough. Right now the strong midwest ridge is far northwest to not feel its tentacles for this time period, but as the ridge is forecasted to eventually move very slowly eastward and as the same time an Atlantic ridge moves westward, 98L will move westward across the Peninsula. But the question is how are the UL conditions going to be.

and how quickly can it establish a well defined LLC

If it stays offshore long enough it may have a good chance, IMO.

sure does... would not be surprised to see a depression tonight or early AM

[Vortex]

Radar returns out of MLB continue to suggest slow organization and deeper convection firing near the loosly defined center...Based on reports from several stations in the bahamas we certainly have a surface reflection....

[Aric Dunn]

Radar returns out of MLB continue to suggest slow organization and deeper convection firing near the loosly defined center...Based on reports from several stations in the bahamas we certainly have a surface reflection....

yep...