ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

#101 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 11:08 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:I know there are recon flights tasked, but are they for tomorrow or Sunday?

Tommorow afternoon.See the 94L Recon Thread for the details of the TCPOD.

#102 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 11:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:The more I look at it this evening, the more I think it may well develop over the weekend. I would feel comfortable going 50-60% chance of development now. Don't see any threat (or rain benefit) to the northern Gulf. All indications are that if it does deepen it would be steered northward toward eastern Cuba and the eastern Bahamas.

Why do you say Eastern Cuba/Bahamas? The models don't show 94L moving much over the next couple days.

EDIT: Thanks cycloneye!

#103 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 11:18 pm

The coc (now closed as located by ascat) is farther sw than we thought. Good model initialization!

#104 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 11:38 pm

nice!

Macrocane · #105 Postby **Macrocane** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 11:45 pm

I'm impressed, I have to admit that it is much better organized than I thought, now that there is a center the models are going to be interesting.

#106 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 11:49 pm

Center is displaced of convection though. Until that changes, not much strengthening will occur.

#107 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 11:50 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Center is displaced of convection though. Until that changes, not much strengthening will occur.

Classic early season system. Remember last Arlene? and Alberto in 2006.

KyleEverett · #108 Postby **KyleEverett** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 11:51 pm

GFS and CMC are both showing nothing. Nogaps has a weak low swirling northwestward.

#109 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 11:52 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Center is displaced of convection though. Until that changes, not much strengthening will occur.

Classic early season system. Remember last Arlene? and Alberto in 2006.

Oh I totally agree, just saying nighttime IR imagery can be deceiving.

#110 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 11:54 pm

I'm guessing that the percentage will increase in the next TWO.

#111 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Fri Jun 03, 2011 11:57 pm

I'm not too sure it will. Maybe 40%, but the overall structure doesn't look that much different than 8pm. Although my personal guess is about 50% chance during the next 48 hours :wink:

#112 Postby **SFLcane** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:07 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:I'm not too sure it will. Maybe 40%, but the overall structure doesn't look that much different than 8pm. Although my personal guess is about 50% chance during the next 48 hours

Still looks like a sheared mess to me... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

#113 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:10 am

The anticyclone is more established closer to the center. I think one of the main problems it will have is getting rid of the trough connected to it so convection can become focused over the true center. Although after looking at the latest ASCAT pass, that may not be much of a problem. It was pretty well defined. Convection looks like its starting to die out, as it was mostly divergence driven anyway.

Hurricane · #114 Postby **Hurricane** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:11 am

It may look a little messy but you can't ignore its candy cane structure.

ROCK · #115 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:31 am

I am with Brent...about time....it has had model support for days.....welcome to the 2011 season...

dwsqos2 · #116 Postby **dwsqos2** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:36 am

Cloud tops have warmed in the last few hours. Low level convergence isn't that great. And what model support has it had for days? The good models have done little to nothing with it. I don't care about the CMC or NOGAPS. And please don't bring up the generally bad hurricane models.

ROCK · #117 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:38 am

correction the 0z NOGAPS takes a mess into SFL giving much needed rain.....seems plausible with what it looks like right now....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Weatherfreak000 · #118 Postby **Weatherfreak000** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:40 am

2011 starting off bigtime IMO. I am getting this ominous feeling we may indeed see some dangerous tracks this season.

Shooting off the NE though? That's a strange track for June 3rd...

ROCK · #119 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:46 am

0Z CMC...up and out....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

#120 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:48 am

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040547
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ROUGHLY A HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF JAMAICA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

No change in %, which doesn't really surprise me. I do think it should be at 40%, but the NHC being conservative over night isn't surprising.

ATL: INVEST 94L - DISCUSSION

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