ATL: EARL - Models

[ROCK]

Through 36 it still has a wnw heading.

looks more like NW to me Steve...hard to tell...shouldnt be going NW though with the high parked above it...

The short term motion just altogether appears off right from the start I would say. We may need the other models to come in and verify these ideas GFS has in the short term.

agree...seems to gain a lot of lat in the first 42 hours to be on a strict wnw heading...to me anyway...

[Steve]

>>looks more like NW to me Steve...hard to tell...shouldnt be going NW though with the high parked above it...

If you zoom click through 36, it's still west of NW. HHC had the NW'ly motion in 24 hours. So it's got to be a little to the left of that. I haven't run past 36 yet though.

[boca]

A few days ago the models had Earl recurving east of the islands.

[SouthFLTropics]

A few days ago the models had Earl recurving east of the islands.

Yeah...Kinda makes you wonder how much farther west they will bring the cone...

In reality the outside edge of the cone isn't that far from us Boca...

SFT

[ROCK]

54hr....trof coming into play now....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif


Steve loop it here....looks NW..I dont know....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Steve]

Rock,

by 52 the movement was northwest from initialization to there. But if you dot your screen and watch through 36ish, it's to the left of NW. Thereafter, it looks to be making that up. So over the 2 1/2 days through 52, it's NW probably in the midst of a turn toward the north (as wx57 alluded to earlier with the North movement by Wed). But does it take it east of the Outer Banks and SE NC or does it come far enough under that when the turn happens, there's still a lot of weather to be dealt with. I'm intrigued.

[ROCK]

Rock,

by 52 the movement was northwest from initialization to there. But if you dot your screen and watch through 36ish, it's to the left of NW. Thereafter, it looks to be making that up. So over the 2 1/2 days through 52, it's NW probably in the midst of a turn toward the north (as wx57 alluded to earlier with the North movement by Wed). But does it take it east of the Outer Banks and SE NC or does it come far enough under that when the turn happens, there's still a lot of weather to be dealt with. I'm intrigued.

I see what you mean....BTW that trof looks less amplified than I would have thought...looks more zonal...

[img] http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif[/img]

[Evil Jeremy]

A few days ago the models had Earl recurving east of the islands.

Yeah...Kinda makes you wonder how much farther west they will bring the cone...

In reality the outside edge of the cone isn't that far from us Boca...

SFT

You don't actually think we will feel Earl down here, do you? Is there actually a possibility?

[Steve]

Yeah, that one does look more NW. At 850mb over MSLP, it's a little different earlier in the run. Check it out:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Weatherfreak000]

Out to 80 hours the trof picks this up...dangerously close to the EC.


I would say this setup is pretty dangerous

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

A few days ago the models had Earl recurving east of the islands.

Yeah...Kinda makes you wonder how much farther west they will bring the cone...

In reality the outside edge of the cone isn't that far from us Boca...

SFT

You don't actually think we will feel Earl down here, do you? Is there actually a possibility?

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

No, Earl if it effects any land areas at all will be a Carolinas north to Nova Scotia storm.

[SouthFLTropics]

A few days ago the models had Earl recurving east of the islands.

Yeah...Kinda makes you wonder how much farther west they will bring the cone...

In reality the outside edge of the cone isn't that far from us Boca...

SFT

You don't actually think we will feel Earl down here, do you? Is there actually a possibility?

My gut tells me no but when I watch the progression of the forecast track that steadily moves to the west...Well, it kinda makes you wonder...

[ROCK]

east of NC and the coast...close call...

[boca]

A few days ago the models had Earl recurving east of the islands.

Yeah...Kinda makes you wonder how much farther west they will bring the cone...

In reality the outside edge of the cone isn't that far from us Boca...

SFT

You don't actually think we will feel Earl down here, do you? Is there actually a possibility?

No not at all I'm just saying how much of a shift west the models have taken Earl over a span of 48hrs.

[T'Bonz]

heck this even has my attention if i was in FL....now it's a very low shot there.

Yep, it does and yes, it's a low shot. But I always watch the little $*#@!s until they're safely north of us and hope that they don't do a loop-de-loop or some other trick.

Bonz, in S. Florida, still watching.

[shah8]

00z cmc keeps Earl low and along Hispaniola then does a very sharp turn north for awhile and then recurves out well south of OBX. It eats Fiona in the process. No new TS until a wave in currently in africa is offshore. I'm sorta ok with it but dubious. I'm just not much for deep systems changing directions in a major way like that.

edit: Be advised that path rakes Hispaniola far more than Earl raked PR, and SE Bahamas gets nuked.

[shah8]

Comparing the cmc and gfs 00z was interesting. The primary difference is that the cmc is initially faster in a wnw motion than the gfs, which meant that the north portion of the journey started further south and ended further south of NC than the gfs Earl. There does seem to be a great many factors involved actually, with the wild card of Fiona developing. If Fiona truly gains strength, these 00z are going to be worthless, I think.

[Wx_Warrior]

[Brent]

Wowwwwwwwwwww

[supercane]

GFS runs very consistent, with 00Z run in red:


Other models also in fair agreement: