ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO - DISCUSSION

[Annie Oakley]

Why even bother upgrading to a TD, it looks like hell. There's barely any convection and every image shows even more convection dying down. What a waste of a system.

You have to read the discussion (Advisories Thread) to see why they pulled the trigger.

Such a simply brilliant suggestion.
Any thoughts on flood potential in Texas and where?

[cycloneye]

Why even bother upgrading to a TD, it looks like hell. There's barely any convection and every image shows even more convection dying down. What a waste of a system.

You have to read the discussion (Advisories Thread) to see why they pulled the trigger.

Such a simply brilliant suggestion.
Any thoughts on flood potential in Texas and where?

From Advisory.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND COASTAL TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10
INCHES.

[Annie Oakley]

Gracias

[CrazyC83]

Soils are really saturated in northeast Mexico though after the horrible flooding from Alex. For their sake, we need to hope for a Texas landfall, otherwise even a weak TD2/Bonnie could be catastrophic.

[Aric Dunn]

haha look at the happy little low level circ on the last few frames.. no convection over it ( atm)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[Nederlander]

Although convection is certainly nothing to write home about, wind speeds indicate its already close to being Bonnie. I am not sure what the exact relationship between convection and the pressure gradient (wind speed) is, or if there is any correlation whatsoever..

[ROCK]

glad they upgraded...makes sense really...kinda give the folks over there a heads up after being pounded by Alex.... is this like the first time the exact same area has been hit by a TS in the same year?

Bumpy ride in from Denver....you could defintely tell moisture was streaming in from the gulf...

[clfenwi]

glad they upgraded...makes sense really...kinda give the folks over there a heads up after being pounded by Alex.... is this like the first time the exact same area has been hit by a TS in the same year?

Bumpy ride in from Denver....you could defintely tell moisture was streaming in from the gulf...

People will undoubtedly pick out their personal favorites; ones that stick out the most, but 2004's Frances and Jeanne pretty much had a merged plot into Florida; virtually identical landfall positions.

It makes for a poor analogy, but the incidence of one tropical cyclone hitting the same area before its dried out from a previous cyclone does one reminds me of Dennis and Floyd in 1999, which caused epic flooding in inland North Carolina and Virginia.

[Florida1118]

glad they upgraded...makes sense really...kinda give the folks over there a heads up after being pounded by Alex.... is this like the first time the exact same area has been hit by a TS in the same year?

Bumpy ride in from Denver....you could defintely tell moisture was streaming in from the gulf...

Not Even CLOSE. 2004, Florida hit 5 times. 5 times! Bonnie ( ) to the Panhandle, Charley to southwest Peninsula, Ivan to Pan, Frances and Jeanne to the east coast of the Peninsula. Horrible year. So no, not first time a area hit in the same year twise. I felt the effects 4 times (mainly rain from Bonnie.)

[Aric Dunn]

glad they upgraded...makes sense really...kinda give the folks over there a heads up after being pounded by Alex.... is this like the first time the exact same area has been hit by a TS in the same year?

Bumpy ride in from Denver....you could defintely tell moisture was streaming in from the gulf...

Not Even CLOSE. 2004, Florida hit 5 times. 5 times! Bonnie ( ) to the Panhandle, Charley to southwest Peninsula, Ivan to Pan, Fances and Jeanne to the east coast of the Peninsula. Horrible year. So no, not first time a area hit in the same year twise.

jeanne and frances were within 10 miles of landfall of each other.. lol

[Florida1118]

glad they upgraded...makes sense really...kinda give the folks over there a heads up after being pounded by Alex.... is this like the first time the exact same area has been hit by a TS in the same year?

Bumpy ride in from Denver....you could defintely tell moisture was streaming in from the gulf...

Not Even CLOSE. 2004, Florida hit 5 times. 5 times! Bonnie ( ) to the Panhandle, Charley to southwest Peninsula, Ivan to Pan, Fances and Jeanne to the east coast of the Peninsula. Horrible year. So no, not first time a area hit in the same year twise.

jeanne and frances were within 10 miles of landfall of each other.. lol

Yea....and Bonnie and Charley made landfall with 24hrs of each other. That was a crappy year. Hopefully this year doesn't go the same way, and so far its not looking promising.

[clfenwi]

So were the dropsondes from the research aircraft ballasted with Dyn-O-Gel or what?

Reviewing the thread in its entirety earlier, I was struck by how this storm's convection flare-ups have been off the usual cycle with activity seeming to peak in the daytime. One could note the "mood meter" going down with the convection in the evening before flaring up again the next day.

[Vortmax1]

jeanne and frances were within 10 miles of landfall of each other.. lol



I find no humor in either of those two Hurricanes Aric Dunn.
My family suffered badly during two eyes in less than three weeks and I'm still not laughing.

[Florida1118]

jeanne and frances were within 10 miles of landfall of each other.. lol



I find no humor in either of those two Hurricanes Aric Dunn.
My family suffered badly during two eyes in less than three weeks and I'm still not laughing.

My family suffered from Charleys Rath...and a little from F&J but we didnt get the eye. And you got the eye twise, so im sure you have much stronger feeling then us. Even though a tree fell on our house, im sure you guys on the east got much worse.

[vbhoutex]

Please take the discussion back to TD2.

[Florida1118]

Please take the discussion back to TD2.

OK... Do you guys think that TD2 will become a tropical storm before landfall... its looking rather hideous at the moment. I am not sure if it can pull its act together in time... thats a good thing for Brownsville though... hopefully no rapid strengthening like what we saw with Alex

The NHC thinks so so....Im going to go with them. It does look quite bad now, but hey, its a depression.

[wxman57]

Ok, I'm at the office now until 4:30am. Not a lot of calls about the depression (none). Waiting for my relieve to arrive at 4am. TD Two continues to look less organized with time. Check out the buoy report to the south, now. Doesn't really support an LLC to the north. Convection continues to diminish and it looks like any LLC may have gotten stretched NW-SE over the past few hours.

I understand the NHC reasoning for making the upgrade based on potential development overnight, but at some point it has to get a few showers around what's left of a center. Maybe they'll downgrade it with the first visible imagery if nothing pops up overnight.

[Florida1118]

Lol I guess I'm just used to the extremely impressive TD Alex... I don't think the tropical storm distinction really matters in this case though... it will be a rainmaker, with winds from 35-45 mph, and the biggest threat will be flooding, be it from TD2 or T.S. Bonnie
---
Yea.... The only thing that matters if the letter B is used or not...not much a difference if it gains 5 mph.

[HouTXmetro]

Wow, this is a mess! so much for D-max. This storm has done exactly the opposite.

[ROCK]

Ok, I'm at the office now until 4:30am. Not a lot of calls about the depression (none). Waiting for my relieve to arrive at 4am. TD Two continues to look less organized with time. Check out the buoy report to the south, now. Doesn't really support an LLC to the north. Convection continues to diminish and it looks like any LLC may have gotten stretched NW-SE over the past few hours.

I understand the NHC reasoning for making the upgrade based on potential development overnight, but at some point it has to get a few showers around what's left of a center. Maybe they'll downgrade it with the first visible imagery if nothing pops up overnight.

sorry you had to go in but its better safe than sorry. Your clients impact should be minimal by the looks of things....maybe your folks were getting you warmed up for the big show in Aug Sept....