ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

I predict this dissipates by tonight.

No chance.

1: Kevin, don't forget about the personal forecast disclaimer.
2: The NHC is giving this a <1% chance of this dissipating within 24 hours, and only 2% through the next 48.

[x-y-no]

For what it's worth, upper-level winds are declining steadily as they approach the southern Gulf. They're flying at 375mb - up at 28N they had WSW winds at 70 knots - at 25.5N it's down to WSW at 33 knots.

A well -developed hurricane can survive that if it's moving eastward at 15 knots or more, so I think it's possible to have a hurricane affect the Florida Keys if something close to the GFDL track verifies.

Doubtful there's much risk further north though.

[northjaxpro]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Paula is about 145 miles S/SE of Cozumel right now. If she maintains her current motion of N/N-NW movement and forward motion of 10mph, the cyclone should be at or very near Cozumel by early tomorrow morning.

I think the forward motion may possibly be fast enough to take Paula inland over the Northeast Yucatan Peninsula before steering currents collapse within the next 12-24 hours. Also, it appears to me observing IR that cloud tops have warmed considerably and convection has begun to erode on the SW quadrant of the cyclone, which to me signals some dry air entrainment and some light shear as well.

Lots of uncertainty, but I think either Paula will move inland over the YP and fizzle out, or meander around the NE YP or NW Caribbean and begins the weakening phase as strong upper level westerlies exact its toll on her in the coming days. It will be a heavy rainmaker for YP and Cuba possibly as the week progresses. Keep a watch on it for sure for those in the Keys and extreme South Florida, but for now, no immediate worries!

Of course, this is my opinion, not an official forecast.

[HURAKAN]

that's an eye

I see some people feel that this hurricane season has let them down because there hasn't been a hurricane landfall in the US, wow. Lets enjoy that our already altered lives due to the economic situation hasn't been further altered due to a hurricane landfall.

[KWT]

Yeah sure does look like there is an eye there Hurakan, looking pretty good at the moment, its gonna be real interesting to see what recon shows in the next few hours!

Certainly looks good on the vis whilst the IR still looks pretty poor really!

[GCANE]

I think solar heating of the Yucatan Landmass maybe breaking the convective cap over it.

Some cumulus is beginning to build over Belize and to the west somewhat.

The destablized air should feed into Paula and help development.

Already looks like more overshooting tops are starting to fire up.



http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... 17&lon=-85

[HURAKAN]

RECON hasn't reached the Yucatan Channel and winds at flight level are already below 20 knots. Shear doesn't seem that high at the moment.

[HURAKAN]

Paula's eye, wow, that's a small system

[KWT]

RECON hasn't reached the Yucatan Channel and winds at flight level are already below 20 knots. Shear doesn't seem that high at the moment.

Yeah its below 10kts now at flight level so for it doesn't appear to be too bad south of 23N but that could clearly change quickly.

Looking very good on the Vis imagery now, Paula has timed it pretty well!

[northjaxpro]

Wow, Paula is doing very well fighting off the dry air with her tiny inner core. As some of you already pointed out, she has popped out an eye. Definitely will be interesting to see the Recon reports once they get down to the cyclone within the next 90 minutes or so.

[GCANE]

If surface winds start really picking up then Wind-Induced-Surface-Heat-Exchange (WISHE) will become the main source of energy into the system.

It looks ideally located to receive maximum benefit when that happens.

[supercane]

Latest microwave:

[KWT]

Yeah and if that was to happen GCANE once again it'd have a shot at becoming a major unless the dry air picks up again like it did this morning, shear at least in the mid levels don't seem all that bad at all below 23N.

[HURAKAN]

Paula putting up a show as RECON arrives

[Ptarmigan]

I read that Paula broke Humberto's record for intensification.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1653

Quite a small hurricane. I think it could be a major hurricane. I noticed the NHC in 5 days has it as a tropical storm.

[caneman]

At what Lat. does the shear pick up? Any maps?

[GCANE]

That microwave is showing a nice eyewall on the south quad.

I think a tower must have fired about 1/2 hour ago.

Looking at VIS, it seemed to blow-off some cirrus.

Can now see some high cumulus circulating around the center.

Eyewall looks to be building very nicely now.

[northjaxpro]

That microwave is showing a nice eyewall on the south quad.

I think a tower must have fired about 1/2 hour ago.

Looking at VIS, it seemed to blow-off some cirrus.

Can now see some high cumulus circulating around the center.

Eyewall looks to be building very nicely now.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... fbC9GT.jpg

Paula has made a nice comeback compared to just a few hours ago. The eyewall looks very good on imagery and when Recon arrives at the cyclone, they could be finding Paula strenthening approaching or already at Category 2 intensity. We will know shortly, but a well defined small cyclone and compact inner core.

[KWT]

I read that Paula broke Humberto's record for intensification.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1653

Quite a small hurricane. I think it could be a major hurricane. I noticed the NHC in 5 days has it as a tropical storm.

As I said before that recod is going to be short lived and probably at the end of the season we'll find Paula was a 30-35kts TC for a good 36-48hrs before the NHC upgraded it, they did a horrid job with the formation of this one thats for sure!

Shear looks pretty light in general below 22-23N at the moment...

[fci]

If you are looking simply at what Paula looks likes a Hurricane; she is a little beauty. Apt to intensify quite well and just as quickly decrease. She might as well do it now before the shear machine chops her up