ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[ronjon]

The NHC has shifted their 8 am Thursday position approximately 1 deg longitude west and 2 deg latitude south since their initial advisory.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/graphics/al04/loop_3W.shtml

[cycloneye]

It looks like an open wave.

[JTE50]

If a storm has a tight and well defined LLC, then they can strengthen when moving at high speeds.

An example would be Hurricane Charley on August 13, (Friday) 2004. Went from a CAT 2 (11am advisory) to a Cat 4 (2pm advisory) while moving about 20 mph just offshore of Punta Gorda, FL.

I gave up on Colin days ago. Next.

[HURAKAN]

I think we're losing the pulse!!

[jlauderdal]

http://i34.tinypic.com/68wygo.gif

I think we're losing the pulse!!

look at the shredder out ahead of the system



Edited by CM to delete img tags in a quoted post. Please try to remember to do this. Thanks!

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like Bones my be coming out sometime soon...I don't think Colin is going to make it...If his ghost continues west then maybe a return when it gets past the ULL but not until then...

SFT

[HurrMark]

This thing looks like toast...probably just another "cheap" name off the list...

[ROCK]

hey I have been out awhile.......what are we supposed to be looking at?


looks like an outflow boundary to me with no LLC.....its open

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aric Dunn]

If a storm has a tight and well defined LLC, then they can strengthen when moving at high speeds.

An example would be Hurricane Charley on August 13, (Friday) 2004. Went from a CAT 2 (11am advisory) to a Cat 4 (2pm advisory) while moving about 20 mph just offshore of Punta Gorda, FL.

I gave up on Colin days ago. Next.

too be fair... the example of charley and Colin are not correct... although they were both moving fast, charley was in a highly enhanced baroclinic zone which allowed for the rapid intensification as well as a very moist environment ahead of the cold front. Colin on the other hand is in a completely different synoptic setup. it is true small systems can spin up (and down) faster than large systems but its always dependent on the environment. Dean was moving around 20mph as a strong intensifying hurricane and it was large compared to colin and charley. So yes size does matter but its not an indication of a storms overall potential lol

[Dean4Storms]

I've been saying since last nite this was nothiing but a Wave, surprised me that they upgraded it.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, based on that loop that HURAKAN posted, I don't see any way that Colin can survive that...As one poster mentioned, it's heading for the shredder.......
I know that some models predict it suriving, but I'd like to know what they are looking at. How is it even possible?

[Aric Dunn]

I've been saying since last nite this was nothiing but a Wave, surprised me that they upgraded it.

I believe there was a closed circ yesterday and even last night as you could at least track some westerly moving cloud lines... now however its very difficult to see anything but some boundaries.. the only thing I could find was pointed out on the previous page where a very small swirl is noticeable shooting away from the convection,...

[StormClouds63]

I'm assuming if it weakens to an open wave and then were to re-intensify, it would retain the name Colin. I recall back in 2002 Lili developed into a TS, weakened to an open wave, and then re-intensified to a hurricane ... Don't expect this is going to happen with our current system.

[Aric Dunn]

I'm assuming if it weakens to an open wave and then were to re-intensify, it would retain the name Colin. I recall back in 2002 Lili developed into a TS, weakened to an open wave, and then re-intensified to a hurricane ... Don't expect this is going to happen with our current system.

yeah thats correct. as long as it is the same system and no other wave combined with it while it was not classified then they typically keep it... there are plenty of examples hurricane jean in 04 was ripped apart of the mountains and was nothing but a disorganized area of storms that drifted north and finally started organizing again..

[Gladstone]

This is one of the worst looking storms I've seen. I wouldnt be surprised if it breaks up before it reaches near us in the islands.

I'm not surprised at all. Colin is moving along at over 16 kts, almost unsustainable for a developing TC.

Colin is doing 21 kts (24mph.) In years of memory, I can recall developing storms make the crossing at this speed....but I remember none that ever exceeded 22kts.

It'll be interesting to see what his top speed reaches; and how he handles it if it climbs any higher.

[chzzdekr81]

I wouldn't write this off just yet..

[Blown Away]

I see what appears to be a LLC inside that circle screaming towards the WNW. Am I seeing correctly Colin way ahead of the NHC forecast points?

[cheezyWXguy]

The Atlantic Basin has the mange this year.

were still practically in preseason, everything picks up around august 15. And besides we started the season with a category 2 hurricane, that likely wouldve been more had it not made landfall. Sorry we havent had enough landfalling majors yet...

[CrazyC83]

My guess is that the winds are stronger than 35 kt - but there is no LLC.