ozonepete wrote:The big issue here is the same as it was with Alex. It started out as, and is still, a part of an elongated low pressure wave/trough. Elongated systems are (of course!) not circular, and non-circular or non-symmetric lows cannot allow for maximum vorticity into the center. The way this is racing northwestward without consolidating into a more circular system tells you that it can't ramp up. Alex was able to because it moved more westward out of the SE to NW flow - i.e. it moved westward out of the fast SE to NW flow and that allowed it to consolidate and develop. This one seems like it's embedded in that flow for good so it will never "break out of it" and become more circular.
But what I was trying to say before is that even though it will never break out of that SE to NW flow and has little time left, the NHC will probably have to issue TS warnings even if they don't think it will reach true TS, because in the right front quadrant you will have to add the forward speed of 10-15 mph on top of 25 to 35mph winds. That will cause TS winds at the coast north of the center. In effect, it will be a TS regardless of the storm relative winds.
That's why I made that post before. This is exactly what I thought would happen.
And BTW, it apparently is breaking away to the west from that trough, so it could get fairly strong...
.gif){kind=small}
