ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#941 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:36 pm

Yeah Aric, bout as close as you can get to PR, before actually going right over. Getting hammered on the southern side, basically heading just north of west.

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#942 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:39 pm

its about 150 miles SW of previous run.. and the ridge over the east coast is holding strong..
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Re:

#943 Postby artist » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:42 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its about 150 miles SW of previous run.. and the ridge over the east coast is holding strong..

and that means no escape, right?
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#944 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:42 pm

Systems that pass near puerto rico are usually the ones we really watch here in southern florida. But the nhc seems confident it will not be coming here.
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:44 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#945 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:42 pm

artist wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:its about 150 miles SW of previous run.. and the ridge over the east coast is holding strong..

and that means no escape, right?


so far no signs of recurve on the 00z nam

entering bahamas ... moving slightly north of west..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#946 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:44 pm

I dont know Mike,
I am not so much focusing on where the NAM shows Earl going but more of the upper level features. That high centered over North Carolina looks pretty strong and seems like it could push him right over into the gulf. You posted another plot the other day, Nogaps, I believe that showed something very similar. Just have to wonder how strong this ridge could actually be once Danielle moves out the picture.
Last edited by CYCLONE MIKE on Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#947 Postby Ikester » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:45 pm

Somebody should save the image of the 5pm cone before it is updated and see how far the cone shifts day by day. That would be interesting to see.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#948 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:45 pm

Ikester wrote:Somebody should save the image of the 5pm cone before it is updated and see how far the cone shifts day by day. That would be interesting to see.

there is a archive of everything..
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#949 Postby Ikester » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:46 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Ikester wrote:Somebody should save the image of the 5pm cone before it is updated and see how far the cone shifts day by day. That would be interesting to see.

there is a archive of everything..


Gotchya...blonde moment.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#950 Postby Fego » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:46 pm

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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#951 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:46 pm

Ikester wrote:Somebody should save the image of the 5pm cone before it is updated and see how far the cone shifts day by day. That would be interesting to see.


On the NHC site all the maps are archived, and in fact play in a loop so you can see how the forecast track/cone moved throughout a storm's history.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#952 Postby abajan » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:47 pm

Ikester wrote:Somebody should save the image of the 5pm cone before it is updated and see how far the cone shifts day by day. That would be interesting to see.
Those images are found in the graphics archive at the site.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#953 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:48 pm

Image

Impressive
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Re:

#954 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:48 pm

gatorcane wrote:Systems that pass near puerto rico are usually the ones we really watch here in southern florida. But the nhc seems confident it will not be coming here.


That is for now. We all know how fast they start adjusting the cone as more and more model runs push a system further west
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#955 Postby Ikester » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:55 pm

Well the past few days, the advisories have come out about a quarter till the hour. Tonight it is noticably longer. I just wonder if they are making 'big' changes to the forecast? :eek:
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#956 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:58 pm

00z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

over 200 miles SW of previous run. and bee lining towards SF
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#957 Postby abajan » Sat Aug 28, 2010 9:59 pm

Ikester wrote:Well the past few days, the advisories have come out about a quarter till the hour. Tonight it is noticably longer. I just wonder if they are making 'big' changes to the forecast? :eek:
Make that past few years. Something seems to be up.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#958 Postby Florida1118 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:00 pm

Their busy with something thats for sure...I dont think it would take this long to shift a track 1 degree so their up to something...
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#959 Postby Hurricanewatcher2007 » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:04 pm

Hurricane warnings and watches have been issued for the islands
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Re: ATL: Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

#960 Postby Ikester » Sat Aug 28, 2010 10:04 pm

Hurricane Watch for PR and HURRICANE WARNINGS are up for the islands! Just saw on the news.
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