ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Is it me, or is Earl stalling or drastically slowing down?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

its the convection giving that appearance.. so far recon still showing moving pretty quickly..

[Ivanhater]

Is it me, or is Earl stalling or drastically slowing down?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

No, the circulation is on the western side of convection still trucking along. The convection displacement is giving an illusion of stalling.

[Macrocane]

I don't think it has stalled but yes it is moving slower and may decrease its speed a little more on the next hours, and as it has been stated above it was expected to do so. By the way, with that strong convection Earl looks more like a WPAC system.

[AdamFirst]

Definitely not stalled...I don't think you can go from 23 MPH to zero.

[gatorcane]

Haiti is also very close to getting in the cone. Let's hope these westward shifts stop

[TCmet]

Haiti is also very close to getting in the cone. Let's hope these westward shifts stop

Believe me, we have our eyes on Earl here in Haiti.......

[deltadog03]

The outflow from Danielle is certainly playing fits with models. I must admit I havn't looked at this in a day or so, and was really suprised that this was gonna get very close to the islands. But, As long as there is a *barrier, if you will* (Danielle's outflow) to the north, then Earl will keep trucking W ward.....

[gatorcane]

The outflow from Danielle is certainly playing fits with models. I must admit I havn't looked at this in a day or so, and was really suprised that this was gonna get very close to the islands. But, As long as there is a *barrier, if you will* (Danielle's outflow) to the north, then Earl will keep trucking W ward.....

Agreed same thing happened with ike. Some models were lost on where Ike was going.

[MGC]

I remember the model error with Ike....as I recall, Ike was going up the east coast and it seemed every run the models shifted west.....kinda like they are doing with Earl....not saying the same thing will happen with Earl....looking more and more that Earl is going to pass very close to the northern islands......MGC

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a animation of the 500mb steering... The ridge between danielle and earl has been filling in pretty quickly... I would love to see this turn wnw or NW in that ridge.. cant say I see this missing the islands or the bahamas... even with the progression the ridge is just not sliding east fast at all. recons still have it moving pretty quickly and straight west about 270 at around 20mph

[alienstorm]

The sampling of the atmosphere by the high level recon plan will be inputted into the models and we will get a better idea of what the future holds. I would say anywhere from Fla to NC needs to be attentive to the future developments.

[srainhoutx]

The outflow from Danielle is certainly playing fits with models. I must admit I havn't looked at this in a day or so, and was really suprised that this was gonna get very close to the islands. But, As long as there is a *barrier, if you will* (Danielle's outflow) to the north, then Earl will keep trucking W ward.....

We have missed you around here.

[jaxfladude]

The sampling of the atmosphere by the high level recon plan will be inputted into the models and we will get a better idea of what the future holds. I would say anywhere from Fla to NC needs to be attentive to the future developments.

I was wondering when that would happen.

[Aric Dunn]

00z nam further south a faster.. runs over PR

[Ivanhater]

00z nam further south a faster.. runs over PR

Still looks a bit NE of PR through 42 hours

[Aric Dunn]

yeah i was looking at the low resolution because it loads faster.. the 48 hour is very close though ..http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_048m.gif

[paintplaye]

00z nam further south a faster.. runs over PR

Still looks a bit NE of PR through 42 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 8_042m.gif

At the same time though the NAM has it heading in a west to WNW movement. Looks like the ridge is a little more dominating.

[CrazyC83]

With that steering pattern, won't it just keep going west across all the islands and into the Gulf or to the Yucatan if it misses the connection?

[ConvergenceZone]

With that steering pattern, won't it just keep going west across all the islands and into the Gulf or to the Yucatan if it misses the connection?

Hmm, intially I was thinking the same but it looks like it's moving more Northwest based upon that animation that Aric Dunn posted. You can see by that animation how it's going to skirt the northern islands.

[Aric Dunn]

looks like a west turn after it gets just north of PR