ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm GASTON - Discussion

[Chacor]

TAFB's best track which cycloneye posted above, but with the 1800z entry for comparison:

AL, 09, 2010090418, , BEST, 0, 166N, 466W, 30, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GASTON, S,
AL, 09, 2010090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 477W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 45, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GASTON, S,

Gaston has weakened slightly.

[ConvergenceZone]

per IR sat image 145utc..notice the convection beggining to "pop" on the western side of the circulation...that would be near 50W...Ive seen many storms over the years that remain in check until passing 50W..this one may be no different. Should be interesting to watch the sat images come in from this point on.

Vortex, I don't know about that. Click on the link below and other than popcorn type convection pulsing up and down, I just don't see much of an increase in convection. Check it out. Also, if you look at the last two frames, the circulation don't look as apparent. I honestly don't know if Gaston is going to make it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-avn.html

[wxman57]

Gaston continues to gain latitude, despite most models suggesting otherwise. As far north as it is now, I don't think it will enter the Caribbean. Maybe an Earl/Fiona type track grazing the NE Caribbean then recurving. Pretty strong TUTT in the eastern Caribbean, too.

[cycloneye]

Gaston continues to gain latitude, despite most models suggesting otherwise. As far north as it is now, I don't think it will enter the Caribbean. Maybe an Earl/Fiona type track grazing the NE Caribbean then recurving. Pretty strong TUTT in the eastern Caribbean, too.

Even some of them had a wsw movement that has never came to fructition.

[ConvergenceZone]

Gaston continues to gain latitude, despite most models suggesting otherwise. As far north as it is now, I don't think it will enter the Caribbean. Maybe an Earl/Fiona type track grazing the NE Caribbean then recurving. Pretty strong TUTT in the eastern Caribbean, too.

It may not matter Wxman, because on that loop I just posted, the last two frames almost look as if it's lost its LLC. You can see the spinning and then nothing....

On another note, you seem very confident on this curving out to sea. I'm surprised. The models seems to be seeing a high pressure north of Gaston...I'll take your word for it though....

[HURRICANELONNY]

Future track and intensity is unknown. Will it even make it as a depression? By tomorrow I think it's either do or die. Not that it ever came back.

[Vortex]

Take a look at the 00z nam rolling in...Thats some ridge that builds west with gaston. He's not recurving anytime soon.

[ConvergenceZone]

Take a look at the 00z nam rolling in...Thats some ridge that builds west with gaston. He's not recurving anytime soon.

Maybe WXMAN is just taking the approach of what's not likely and calling for a recurve, I don't know. I'm shocked he even said that. I just went over to the model page and it shows almost all of the models fairly tightly clustered together and none of them pointing out to sea.

Again, perhaps he's just going against what's predicted, I don't know....

[Vortex]

maybe, if you look at the forecasted synoptics on the 00z nam and this system stays just north of PR it will have every chance it needs to become a powerful storm. I can understand after looking at the forecasted synoptics why lgem/ships have been forecasting such a strong hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Wow, this discussion tonight by the San Juan NWS explains a lot about what is going on and what to expect.

THE CONVECTION IN THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON HAS WEAKENED FURTHER
IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE GFS 18Z RUN NOW KEEPS IT AS AN
OPEN WAVE WHICH PASSES TO THE SOUTH...YES SOUTH...OF PUERTO RICO
AND SAINT CROIX. THIS...HOWEVER...BRINGS THE BEST WINDS OF THE
WAVE DIRECTLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HAVE RAISED THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WINDS IN TO THE 20 TO 26 KNOT RANGE IN A
NUMBER OF ZONES...BUT THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE WINDS WILL
ONLY HOLD IF GASTON DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP. RE-DEVELOPMENT STILL
SEEMS HIGHLY LIKELY. SEVERAL THINGS POINT TO ITS FAVOR. ONE...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION...KNOWN AS MIMIC...SHOWS A DRY SLOT
THAT IS CUTTING UNDERNEATH GASTON AT THIS TIME AND TRYING TO CUT
OFF ITS MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER THERE
IS ALSO A PROTUBERANCE OF MOISTURE SOUTHWEST OF GASTON THAT MAY
RE-CONNECT IT WITH MOISTURE IN THE ITCZ. TWO...THE STRONG TUTT
LOW THAT IS MOVING WEST OVER PUERTO RICO IS PULLING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ITS REFLECTION AT MID LEVELS IS SOUTHEAST AND
IS ALSO PULLING UP MOISTURE...AS EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND IS FILLING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW OF
GASTON WITH BETTER MOISTURE. WHEN THE LOW REACHES THIS SOURCE OF
MOISTURE IT IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH...AND THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. WHETHER IT IS SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW GASTON TO REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM...AS SOME
HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT SEEMS
LIKELY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Blown Away]

IMO, there is an ever so slight southerly component to the west movement.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

The air is moistening to the west of ex Gaston.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Those San Juan guys always write awesome forecasts, it's almost like they are reading our posts and answering the questions we have.

[msbee]

Wow, this discussion tonight by the San Juan NWS explains a lot about what is going on and what to expect.

THE CONVECTION IN THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON HAS WEAKENED FURTHER
IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE GFS 18Z RUN NOW KEEPS IT AS AN
OPEN WAVE WHICH PASSES TO THE SOUTH...YES SOUTH...OF PUERTO RICO
AND SAINT CROIX. THIS...HOWEVER...BRINGS THE BEST WINDS OF THE
WAVE DIRECTLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HAVE RAISED THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WINDS IN TO THE 20 TO 26 KNOT RANGE IN A
NUMBER OF ZONES...BUT THE INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE WINDS WILL
ONLY HOLD IF GASTON DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP. RE-DEVELOPMENT STILL
SEEMS HIGHLY LIKELY. SEVERAL THINGS POINT TO ITS FAVOR. ONE...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION...KNOWN AS MIMIC...SHOWS A DRY SLOT
THAT IS CUTTING UNDERNEATH GASTON AT THIS TIME AND TRYING TO CUT
OFF ITS MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE ITCZ. HOWEVER THERE
IS ALSO A PROTUBERANCE OF MOISTURE SOUTHWEST OF GASTON THAT MAY
RE-CONNECT IT WITH MOISTURE IN THE ITCZ. TWO...THE STRONG TUTT
LOW THAT IS MOVING WEST OVER PUERTO RICO IS PULLING MOISTURE IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ITS REFLECTION AT MID LEVELS IS SOUTHEAST AND
IS ALSO PULLING UP MOISTURE...AS EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AND IS FILLING THE AREA AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW OF
GASTON WITH BETTER MOISTURE. WHEN THE LOW REACHES THIS SOURCE OF
MOISTURE IT IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN STRENGTH...AND THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. WHETHER IT IS SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW GASTON TO REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM...AS SOME
HURRICANE CENTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT SEEMS
LIKELY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

South?
Wow!

[AtlanticWind]

If the dry air does not kill it in the next 24 hours I think we will have a growing storm on our hands monday A.M.

[AtlanticWind]

These little systems can spin up quick if conditions are ripe.

[cycloneye]

Hmmm , maybe it has opened to a wave by looking at this recent image.

[supercane]

Latest ASCAT pass:

[ConvergenceZone]

Luis, Bingo!! I'm glad you noticed that too. That's exactly what I tried to mention in my last few posts is that if you look at the last few frames on the loop, it clearly looks as if it's lost the LLC. The circulation which was various obvious seems to have just dissipated....If so, we may see a sharp drop in the % chance of development in the next TWO....

[Vortex]

should we call in bones probablly not just yet....

[Blown Away]

Hmmm , maybe it has opened to a wave by looking at this recent image.

Luis, Bingo!! I'm glad you noticed that too. That's exactly what I tried to mention in my last few posts is that if you look at the last few frames on the loop, it clearly looks as if it's lost the LLC. The circulation which was various obvious seems to have just dissipated....If so, we may see a sharp drop in the % chance of development in the next TWO....

I totally disagree, even the visible shows a tight LLC with slight convection pulsing. I see the dry air to the west moistening and I think we will see Gaston start making a comeback tomorrow. One of us will be correct!

[Bailey1777]

i think it's ok, actually it taking it's time getting going is what is probably make this a long tracker thistime tomorrow night imo we will begin the jourey of what i feel will be a very memorable storm.
Darren