ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[baitism]

Up to 65 MPH this advisory and it's only getting stronger

Yeah, IR is showing some very cold cloud tops developing over the LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

well from the last two center fixes.. it moved straight west no north component at all..

[Evil Jeremy]

I know that it's incredibly unlikely... but I'm getting concerned here in SFL. Just watching the evolution of the models over the past 2-3 days... I'm wondering what will happen first, the point where the models trend west close to FL, or the actual turn to the north.

[Aric Dunn]

I know that it's incredibly unlikely... but I'm getting concerned here in SFL. Just watching the evolution of the models over the past 2-3 days... I'm wondering what will happen first, the point where the models trend west close to FL, or the actual turn to the north.

as much as everyone wants to say for certain its going to turn ... It is still possible to make to FL ..

[Gustywind]

Latest SSD: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

28/2345 UTC 16.3N 54.2W T3.5/3.5 EARL
28/1745 UTC 16.5N 53.3W T3.0/3.5 EARL

[hurricanefloyd5]

I know that it's incredibly unlikely... but I'm getting concerned here in SFL. Just watching the evolution of the models over the past 2-3 days... I'm wondering what will happen first, the point where the models trend west close to FL, or the actual turn to the north.

as much as everyone wants to say for certain its going to turn ... It is still possible to make to FL ..

really but what makes you so sure florida has a shot to get hit by earl aric??????!!!!!!!!!!

[Aric Dunn]

I know that it's incredibly unlikely... but I'm getting concerned here in SFL. Just watching the evolution of the models over the past 2-3 days... I'm wondering what will happen first, the point where the models trend west close to FL, or the actual turn to the north.

as much as everyone wants to say for certain its going to turn ... It is still possible to make to FL ..

really but what makes you so sure florida has a shot to get hit by earl aric??????!!!!!!!!!!

I posted a bunch in the models thread.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 07, 2010082900, , BEST, 0, 165N, 546W, 55, 989, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 010.invest

[AdamFirst]

Can the Gulfstream do recon like the Hercules can?

Looking at the satellite it looks like it's on the cusp of hurricane status.

[gatorcane]

Remember what hannas outflow did to Ike causing a wsw movement. If Earl develops quickly a deeper system in this case means more west. Several models missed this badly and Ike moved far more west than forecasted

[AdamFirst]

I know that it's incredibly unlikely... but I'm getting concerned here in SFL. Just watching the evolution of the models over the past 2-3 days... I'm wondering what will happen first, the point where the models trend west close to FL, or the actual turn to the north.

as much as everyone wants to say for certain its going to turn ... It is still possible to make to FL ..

I wouldn't be surprised if a Hurricane David situation came to pass with a bit more of an eastern bias.

(THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST BUT AN AMATEUR OPINION)

[Gustywind]

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like some clouds from the outflow are starting to effect the eastern islands

[HUC]

Does he slowdown it's movement,or the 8pm position is a relocation???

[hurricanedude]

slowed from 23mph to 21....

[Ivanhater]

Gonna be real hard not to hit the Islands as it is still trucking due west. Still northerly shear from Danielle.

[srainhoutx]

I believe a slow down in forward motion was expected.

[HUC]

YEAH,PERHAPS IT WILL TAKE A TURN TO THE W NWEST SOONER. BUT WHAT I SEE IT THAT SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING AND I THINK IT SHOULD BE UPGRADED TO MOROW MORNING,,,

[Evil Jeremy]

Is it me, or is Earl stalling or drastically slowing down?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[CrazyC83]

At this rate, is there any chance it could detach itself from the ridge and head into the Caribbean?