ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[andrewsurvivor]

Good, thx as long as Paula stays away lol. I will probably regret it in the morning but had to see what unfolds tonight. Hopefully better consensus tomorrow.

[littlevince]

Its still a TS. Its not going to be perfect. Given as of right now the chance of a major is 9% max, its still possible.

Where does the % come from?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0244.shtml

[SouthFloridawx]

Another blow up happening.

[SouthFloridawx]

[SouthFloridawx]

Goodnight all. I stayed up much longer than I should have. Gonna need some major coffee in the morning.

[FLCrackerGirl]

SouthFloridawx, Big Thanks Also for your efforts tonite ... some serious multi-tasking of the Paula threads.

[littlevince]

cloud tops cooling trend

[littlevince]

...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

[TheEuropean]

WTNT33 KNHC 120838
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAULA ADVISORY NUMBER 3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010

...PAULA BECOMES NINTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES

[dwsqos2]

Paula has a rather sad satellite presentation at the moment.

[WeatherGuesser]

Oh Joy.

The panic level on this board should go to about a bazillion now even though nothing credible says it will come anywhere near the States.

[Cuber]

.

[Cuber]

Panic ...nah ... not yet .... extra interest ... for sure

[SootyTern]

Looks like Paula gulped in some dry air overnight but is working it out this morning; she seems to be holding her own and the moisture envelope is moving north. Rain in the Keys and coming ashore in South Dade this morning; been awhile.
NWS Miami not at all concerned about Paula at their 3AM.

[wxman57]

One thing I notice with respect to any south Florida threat is that IF Paula is picked up by the first passing trof in a day or two, then the projected upper-level flow across south Florida will be quite strong from the WSW-W (60-70 kts). This would mean that Paula would most likely pass south of the peninsula. And if it traced farther north it would be moving into quite high wind shear near south Florida. So the chances of a hurricane hit on the southern peninsula appear low. Those upper-level winds weaken to 40-50 kts in a week then pick back up when the next front approaches after that.

[KWT]

Paula looks like its starting to get elongated somewhat like some of the models suggested would be the case.

Will be interesting to see how this evolves in the next few days, the NHC have stuck with the idea of a cyclonic loop.

[SouthDadeFish]

Paula's core doesn't look nearly as impressive as I thought it would this morning. Unless she really wraps up, she will have a very difficult time battling the shear over the next couple of days. The idea of a cyclonic loop looks very likely to me at this time. This is not a forecast, just my thoughts.

[cyclonic chronic]

i agree it looks worse than i thought it would also. it does have a small core so it should either intensify or weaken quickly(when it decides to).

[SouthDadeFish]

I think dry air got entrained deep into the system overnight. Looks to me like a large majority of the thunderstorms collapsed with numerous outflow boundaries. I guess once it mixes the dry air our it could intensify, although there is plenty more dry air to deal with.

[KWT]

Shear looks like its taken a step-up today from the south which is going to peg Paula's possible strength compared to what was possible as of yesterday.4

This is looking increasingly like one of those systems that we will have to track for a very long time, the idea of a loop is certainly out there though the models are so over the place I wouldn't put much faith in any one solution right now...