ATL: Ex-Tropical Storm FIONA - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

good site to follow fionas movement.

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

Looking good

[plasticup]

It looks like Fiona will get left behind and is getting stronger. I'm anxious to see what the models do with Fiona if trapped under the ridge, will they send her west? I'm surprised there is little chatter because it seems Fiona is fighting back!

HWRF looks like a recurve. GFDL seems less sure - at the end of the model period it's still wandering just north of Bermuda. The steering currents are definitely going to be weak though.

expect the models to start showing more stalling, loop or wsw motion solutions. this can be seen because all the previous runs had fiona accelerating right along with Earl but Fiona is slowing down and earl is now moving faster than fiona so the distance between them is increasing and should continue as Fiona will likely continue to slow down. this is a complete opposite outcome from the previous model runs. they will have to adjust for this.

Yep, could be the first interesting track of the season. Well, more so than simple recurve and/or dissipating over land, which are interesting in a different way.

[blazess556]

good site to follow fionas movement.

http://www.weather.an/sat_img/radar.asp#

Looking good

yep. this is nice. well also be able to use puerto rico radar later. but fiona is looking good. a spiral band is strengthening per radar.

[Aric Dunn]

you also still have this too..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?84

[SootyTern]

Wait....where did she go? Cloud tops have really warmed just now. Just when we were getting excited about her

[expat2carib]

Earl is taking Fiona for lunch.

[SootyTern]

Is this from shear, or is she starting to hit the area of water churned up by Earl?

[fci]

That is the loop that showed the northern chunk being pulled into Earl yesterday; but the southern part split and has flourished since then.

[Aric Dunn]

oh how quickly things can change.. lol

[expat2carib]

That is the loop that showed the northern chunk being pulled into Earl yesterday; but the southern part split and has flourished since then.

Look at the time-stamp on top of the loop.

[AdamFirst]

Let us reserve judgement for the 11 am advisory. Still looks solid on satellite presentation in terms of structure. It could easily bounce back.

[JtSmarts]

Interesting Wording from 11:00 Discussion about Future Track/Intensity

Aircraft fixes show a motion of about 305/15 during the past several
hours. Track models are in good agreeement on a northwest to
north-northwest motion for a day or two due to Fiona moving around
a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic Ocean. However...the
guidance starts to become rather divergent after that time...which
appears to be related to the future intensity of Fiona. If the
storm weakens quickly...the low-level circulation will likely get
caught up in southwesterly flow ahead of Earl. However...if Fiona
stays a more coherent vortex...there remains the potential for it
to get trapped by a mid-level subtropical ridge. Given the strong
shear forecast at the end...the NHC forecast leans toward the
faster track scenario at the end of the forecast period and
is close to the previous forecast. However...I do not have a lot of
confidence in the long-term track or intensity forecasts...as the
models have been sturggling with consistency with this storm.

[Portastorm]

Nice discussion. I would have thought such a forthcoming and insightful discussion would be from Stacy Stewart but I see it's from Blake.

[msbee]

this is a direct link to St. Maarten radar

http://weather.an/radar/cappisxm.html

weather here is still ( no wind) with very high humidity .It feels like you can cut the air with a knife. skies are dark and we are starting to get some light rain now.

[Canelaw99]

Interesting Wording from 11:00 Discussion about Future Track/Intensity

...[b]sturggling with consistency with this storm.[/b]

(added bold in quote)
I like the word sturggling....

[fci]

That is the loop that showed the northern chunk being pulled into Earl yesterday; but the southern part split and has flourished since then.

Look at the time-stamp on top of the loop.

It's a 27 hour loop, right?

[cyclonic chronic]

almost looks like a naked swirl now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/rgb-l.jpg

is that shear or dry air causing that? fiona has been a strange storm to watch develop over the past few days.

[HURAKAN]

[shah8]

Cyclonic chronic, Fiona has always had a bit of a naked swirl at the center, and more so after Earl ate the northern half. Warm clout tops, relatively, though

[Sanibel]

Earl took the energy out of Fiona.