ATL: Ex COLIN - Discussion

[wxman57]

I'm not convinced that an LLC exists. Dvorak can be quite misleading if a mid-level rotation is evident.

[Gustywind]

Near Guadeloupe? Hey hey hey Cycloneye that's very bad news for the Leewards especially the butterfly island if this trend is confirmed. Be on your guard too. Let's continue to monitor very carefully

Definitly, I am watching from here as you never know what may occur with the track as the tropics many times are full of surprises.

Right, 100% agree with you. Let's see if this little boy Colin continues to provide us full of suprises that islanders don't want to see in vicinity of the islands. Let's continue to follow very carefully what could happen with this TS.
Gustywind

[jlauderdal]

I'm not convinced that an LLC exists. Dvorak can be quite misleading if a mid-level rotation is evident.

wouldnt that be something, they declare it and then poof, system is booking so it wouldnt be a surprise

[KWT]

I'm not convinced that an LLC exists. Dvorak can be quite misleading if a mid-level rotation is evident.

I agree with this, if its there is pretty weak at the moment. I'm just not that impressed by it at the moment as I've said before, abit of a ragged convective mess...

[Blown Away]

I'm not convinced that an LLC exists. Dvorak can be quite misleading if a mid-level rotation is evident.

I agree with this, if its there is pretty weak at the moment. I'm just not that impressed by it at the moment as I've said before, abit of a ragged convective mess...

So if there was an LLC where would you place it?

[Gustywind]

Interresting discussion from Crownweather:
Tropical Storm Colin:
Here is the 5 am EDT/4 am CDT Information On Tropical Storm Colin:
Location: 14.0 North Latitude, 47.2 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 40 mph.
Movement: West-Northwest or 285 Degrees at a forward speed of 23 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 millibars or 29.71 inches.

TD #4 has become better organized overnight and satellite imagery is showing curved bands of convection wrapping about halfway around the storm on its western side. Intensity estimates based on satellite imagery indicates that this system now has 40 mph winds; so it has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Colin by the National Hurricane Center. Some strengthening is likely today through Wednesday as wind shear values will generally range from 7 to 14 knots. After Wednesday, westerly wind shear is forecast to increase over the storm thanks to an upper level low pressure system over the southwest Atlantic. One caveat to this intensity forecast is that if Colin tracks further south than what the guidance package is forecast (which is quite possible), not as much shear will impact the storm and greater strengthening would be possible. For now, I’m following the NHC intensity forecast and cap the storm off at 60 mph by Wednesday.

[edit] ...



Edited by x-y-no.
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[Gustywind]

Tropical Storm Colin forms
Mark Avery, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Aug. 3, 2010 4:36 am ET
Tropical Depression 4 developed Monday morning in the Central Atlantic. As of this morning, the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Colin.

As of 5 a.m. Eastern Time Tuesday, Colin was located about 945 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, with winds near 40 miles per hour. Colin was moving to the west-northwest near 23 miles per hour. Colin is forecast to slowly strengthen through Wednesday before leveling off as a mid-range tropical storm. The system is expected to pass just to the north of the Leeward Islands (the northern Lesser Antilles) Wednesday and Thursday.

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Very interesting discussion from Crownweather there, If it does manage to miss the shear then conditions may well be decent for strengthening near the Bahamas region, but I think the GFS has pretty much got the track nailed now and its done very well thus far.

What does catch my attention is the fact that it doesn't actually weaken the system much at all which may need to be watched as it may suggest the TUTT may weaken or move out of the waym just keep an eye in case thats a trend for the future...then there is the chance it does move furher west then expected and also stays away from the shear.

Center is IMO on the southern convective blob.

[Gustywind]

Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
03/1145 UTC 14.0N 49.3W T2.0/2.0 COLIN
03/0545 UTC 13.5N 46.1W T2.0/2.0 04L

[Gustywind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[KWT]

Those estimates IMO are probably pretty close.

I still am struggling to find any LLC though there maybe a weak one about its hard to tell...

Does seem like its bent a touch more back to the west again recently, also maybe the first signs of banding perhaps looking at the loops?

[Gustywind]

Those estimates IMO are probably pretty close.

I still am struggling to find any LLC though there maybe a weak one about its hard to tell...

Does seem like its bent a touch more back to the west again recently, also maybe the first signs of banding perhaps looking at the loops?

NHC has it this morning at 5AM at 47,2W and this estimation was at 49,3W... so looks like more west not good news at all. That's why we should continue to monitor very carefully this TS.

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031142
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 3 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 945 MILES EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW DUE
TO THE PROXIMITY TO LAND. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT34 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT4.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON THE DEPRESSION ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT4.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[KWT]

Having another loop maybe they are a little too far west, any center probably is more on the eastern side of the convection I suspect but I like the latitude location, maybe something around 14/48 would be my call right now...but really its hard to know if its even got a closed low right now.

Looking forward to getting some more recon!

[wxman57]

Those estimates IMO are probably pretty close.

I still am struggling to find any LLC though there maybe a weak one about its hard to tell...

Does seem like its bent a touch more back to the west again recently, also maybe the first signs of banding perhaps looking at the loops?

NHC has it this morning at 5AM at 47,2W and this estimation was at 49,3W... so looks like more west not good news at all. That's why we should continue to monitor very carefully this TS.

Dvorak is not centered on any LLC, it just looks at the cloud signature and suggests an intensity based on any banding features. There could be a weak MLC where I have the crosshairs, but obs indicate no hint of an LLC, nor does a short visible loop.

[sandyb]

jb is talking more like crown weather...farther south and west ec coast maybe the carolinas early next week

[Gustywind]

[Nimbus]

Center is IMO on the southern convective blob.

I agree but last night we had an ASCAT that showed the low level flow being disrupted by a northwestern lobe which was kind of interesting? This system has had a rather weak storm relative circulation so it was a little surprising that he was upgraded to Colin at least from a technical standpoint. The track is close enough to the islands that its probably a good idea people start hearing about a named storm coming their way in the news. Colin is building slowly and could be a strong TS before it reaches the TFH shear.

[TheBurn]