ATL: Remnants of PAULA - Discussion

[SouthFloridawx]

Poofing wouldn't be a bad option either... lol It would be nice.

[Florida1118]

Wilma is not that great of an example...Already a major in the spot Paula is now....The cone was more certain, Pointed most of the time at Florida (Given the track went from W to east a few times in the beginning and mid advisories, around 1-11), and Wilma Was about a week later-different pattern. But, it does have some similarities. But lets Remember Matthew-the track will change alot in the 1st couple adv. (Adv. coming out in about 2-3min...)

[SFLcane]

Both HWRF/GFDL bury paula in the caribbean...

[Florida1118]

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. Same- Still TS.

[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure at first pass is 991 mbs.

[Aquawind]

:uarrow:
i thought that too after i wrote it. lol oh well. lets both hope bonita, naples and ft. myers are in the clear. i gotta tree that i shouldve had cut down in the spring. if the winds are right it would land on my kids bed. so no hurricanes this year please

No probs.. Point Taken.. be aware and be alive.

Poofalicious sounds dreamy..and it could happen if it gets trapped.

[fci]

i dont think talk of wilma is way off base. its a storm in the carib in oct that is gonna recurve to the n.e., eventually. we could argue that it'lll be sheared, go south or stay in the carib., yet the fact remains that there is the potential for danger. may happen, may not, only time can tell. i believe that most mets in s. fl will be singing a diff tune tommrow a.m. and the reason u gotta bring up a keys evac is cause it takes so long to evac. their not gonna take a chance that it'll miss, esp with all the old people flocking south right now. but that call is still a few days out. bottom line; to be aware is to be alive.

I go with the NHC on this one.
They do not have a Hurricane headed for South Florida at this point. Forecast is for weakening due to the westerly shear and I don't think it is time for the SFL mets to sing a different tune at all.
Wilma was not predicted to weaken to a TS and the models had her coming her for a solid 5 days or more. It was uncanny how far in advance the models had the track correct.
As for Keys evacuation, your point is well taken; but without a Hurricane threat; that talk is premature and I was merely pointing it out since early in this thread there were criticisms that a model showed a 100 MPH Hurricane near the Keys in like 2 days; which does not appear to be a threat to happen at this point.
Finally, we are all aware here of the possibility of a TS coming this way.
South Florida is so much more vigilant than many posters here on S2K give them credit for!!!

[cyclonic chronic]

ok they didnt find some crazy pressure like 970 or something so im goin to bed. later peeps, happy hunting.

true that fci

[cyclonic chronic]

they dont do a disc for an intermediate, right?

[SouthFloridawx]

Going to be very near a Hurricane in the AM.

000
URNT12 KNHC 120552
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL182010
A. 12/05:35:30Z
B. 17 deg 13 min N
084 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1362 m
D. 58 kt
E. 038 deg 12 nm
F. 132 deg 58 kt
G. 037 deg 10 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 18 C / 1525 m
J. 21 C / 1521 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. C16
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0218A PAULA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 58 KT NE QUAD 05:32:10Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 48 KT SW QUAD 05:37:10Z
EYEWALL IN EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT
RADAR PRESENTATION GOOD
;

[Aquawind]

they dont do a disc for an intermediate, right?

Righto..sleep well.

[CourierPR]

That last part caught my eye, EYEWALL IN EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT.

[Aquawind]

Going to be very near a Hurricane in the AM

.


Already is at 70mph.. Cane in the AM is a lock imo. Thanks for the RECON work!

[Sanibel]

Warm tops. Should make major harder to get.

[Florida1118]

Its still a TS. Its not going to be perfect. Given as of right now the chance of a major is 9% max, its still possible.

[fci]

Its still a TS. Its not going to be perfect. Given as of right now the chance of a major is 9% max, its still possible.

Where does the % come from?

[SouthFloridawx]

AL, 18, 2010101206, , BEST, 0, 172N, 850W, 60, 991, TS, 50,

[SouthFloridawx]

[andrewsurvivor]

SouthFLoridawx...thanks for all your hard work, keeping us die-hards so well informed. 30 yrs following storms and this one ranks as fascinating. It's going to be very interesting to see what
scenario pans out. Again, thx for staying up and keeping us posted.

[SouthFloridawx]

No problem. I should be on here more often. Helps to learn. How are things going anyway? I hope good...