ATL: Ex Tropical Storm EARL - Discussion

[Gustywind]

For the Caribbean folks,select island where you are to see how close the center of Earl will pass as of the 5 PM advisory. In my case 116 miles from San Juan.

http://stormcarib.com/closest2.htm

Be aware and vigilant Cycloneye. You know how these TS are versatile then they approach the Lesser Antilles. Given the actual path, Earl is not so far from you

[AdamFirst]

Earl looking a whole lot better on infrared satellite too. Double blob is diminishing and strong convection is blowing up all around the center.

[KWT]

Yeah the 2nd blob is starting to look increasingly like a feeder band now, and the system is gaining convection.

Hopefully people in the Islands are prepared for a category-2, esp as the NHC say to always prepare for the category above whats expected just in cae it strengthens further then expected...and IF it does track further west the models are progging a VERY favourable pattern so we could see it bomb out pretty close to the Islands....

[BatzVI]

89 miles from St. Thomas on Monday night.....hate the nighttime storms

[CrazyC83]

I would have put up a Hurricane Watch as well for the northern Leewards, since there is little room for error if this strengthens as forecast.

[emeraldislencguy]

with each advisory we are starting to pay more attention to Earl.
the next few days will be interesting. I am now starting to go over some plans in case Earl gets closer. Everyone on the coast of NC should use this time to go over plans in case EARL GETS CLOSER.

[KWT]

I would have put up a Hurricane Watch as well for the northern Leewards, since there is little room for error if this strengthens as forecast.

Yeah I agree and the current trends with the improving structure will probably be enough for the NHC to put up hurricane watches next advisory I suspect.

[Aric Dunn]

I would have put up a Hurricane Watch as well for the northern Leewards, since there is little room for error if this strengthens as forecast.

Yeah I agree and the current trends with the improving structure will probably be enough for the NHC to put up hurricane watches next advisory I suspect.

They may put them up at 8pm

[Gustywind]

[KWT]

Still looks a little flat on the northern side so I'd imagine shear hasn't totally eased off yet but looking much improved from 6hrs ago thats for sure.

[artist]

Is it time to start taking earl as a serious threat to the OBX and then north to the midatlantic states? The models continue to be trending west.

Or is Fiona the one out here in Maryland we should be more worried about?

I am no expert, but living in FL and having experienced a few, I would not get panicked, but I would be certain to get all my preps done, if you haven't already. It is better to be prepared before the crowds if this were to veer your way just a bit more. I would think at this point, you will probably be ok, but, why not be prepared just in case? It is still far enough out that things can change to a certain degree either way. Hope this helps.

[msbee]

For the Caribbean folks,select island where you are to see how close the center of Earl will pass as of the 5 PM advisory. In my case 116 miles from San Juan.

http://stormcarib.com/closest2.htm

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 18.7N, 62.8W or about 50.1 miles (80.7 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 43.2 hours (Monday, August 30 at 12:12PM AST).

[blazess556]

recon just found 983.3. mb

[TheDreamTraveler]

recon just found 983.3. mb

Really? When did they? Can you show me?

[blazess556]

recon just found 983.3. mb

Really? When did they? Can you show me?

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/a ... uct=URNT15

[Danny MD]

Thanks for the reply. Anyone starting to think this storm has the makings to resemble Isabel back on 03'?

[KWT]

Very interesting historical map here:

http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... _climo.gif

You can see the tracks seperate and Earl looks to take the northern path, a few hit land, a few got to between 70-75W and some recurved earlier, but we can assume there is historically maybe a 25-30% risk to the east coast from where Earl is now based on the track its likely to take in the next 48-72hrs.

[BigA]

I think that at the altitude the planes are flying the pressure extrapolations are not too accurate. A dropsonde should provide a great reading, though.

[TheDreamTraveler]

recon just found 983.3. mb

Really? When did they? Can you show me?

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/a ... uct=URNT15

Thanks.

That's pretty interesting. I was starting to think this thing wasn't going to get its act together.

[KWT]

I think that at the altitude the planes are flying the pressure extrapolations are not too accurate. A dropsonde should provide a great reading, though.

Yeah I agree, unlress thats a Dropsonde report of 983mbs I'd not pay any real attention to the estimated pressure from the height that is being flown at, could easily be well out...

What does look to be true is its gfetting better organised and I think an upgrade is quite possible in the next 12-18hrs.