ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

Convection on the increase around the center.
They key is will it get blown off by the shear or
sustain itself. That's the $100,000.00 question.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

quote="redfish1"]

Hmmmmmmm.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

what are you seeing i could not pull it up?[/quote]

[Sean in New Orleans]

We'll see....it's the Gulf and it is August. I expect a moderate tropical storm out of this...nothing more, but, dry air is leaving the area. This could be a decent rainmaker....with nasty wind, but, not anything destructive. We'll know a whole lot tomorrow. It has just formed.

[Sanibel]

Some kind of sick or subsiding air this year too. The Yucatan disturbance disappeared too.


We await to see a big center burst.


Wind has become slightly stronger and more steady here.

[Stormcenter]

Good post.

We'll see....it's the Gulf and it is August. I expect a moderate tropical storm out of this...nothing more, but, dry air is leaving the area. This could be a decent rainmaker....with nasty wind, but, not anything destructive. We'll know a whole lot tomorrow. It has just formed.

[BigB0882]

One second it is "this thing is really looking good" then next it is "wow, POOF" and now someone else sees convection on the increase again. This storm has kept it interesting, lol!

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well as stated, it's getting real juicy tonight in the Eastern Gulf... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html

[BigB0882]

Can anyone explain why the NHC track shows it going NW and then suddenly more WNW before lifting N and finally NE? What would cause a sudden more W movement before being shunted to the NE? That doesn't make much sense to me.

[Bailey1777]

sometimes when a system is feeling out a high it will stair step the periphry

[lester]

One second it is "this thing is really looking good" then next it is "wow, POOF" and now someone else sees convection on the increase again. This storm has kept it interesting, lol!

I'm glad most of you don't work for the NHC, this would've been deactivated/reactivated from the look of these posts!

[Sean in New Orleans]

Can anyone explain why the NHC track shows it going NW and then suddenly more WNW before lifting N and finally NE? What would cause a sudden more W movement before being shunted to the NE? That doesn't make much sense to me.

High pressure to the North.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

looks bad right now. Could re-fire some convection in any moment though. This storm should still be taken seriously. Hopefully it will get moving and provide a good rain for the SE

[Wx_Warrior]

I still have a gut feeling this could be potential for a decent TS, but right now it's pure mess.

*edited by vbhoutex to remove offending text*

[StormClouds63]

Bonnie, part II ... perhaps a bit stronger with more moisture. Right now, as Wx-Warrior so elegantly put it, a pure mess.

TD-5 the only game in town ... switch still stuck in "off" position.

[mvtrucking]

would that effect its track?

Seriously doubt this even gets close to Texas according to most models, pro mets etc, unless I'm missing something.

[Ivanhater]

Bonnie, part II ... perhaps a bit stronger with more moisture. Right now, as Wx-Warrior so elegantly put it, a pure mess.

TD-5 the only game in town ... switch still stuck in "off" position.

Well, I think the switch turned on at the very end of July....After Alex in June there wasn't any activity until the very end of July and have had Bonnie, Colin, likely Danielle and Earl (models really like 93L) within the next couple of days. If you want to base the switch in terms of intensity that's ok. All in the way you look at it, but a definite uptick in activity lately.

[Raininfyr]

Well, the local met did not say anything about this going "poof" tonight, so I would imagine it will still be around in the morning. Bonnie II indeed. Hoping it won't be more than that. Guess it is time to get some shut-eye just n case. Mike Seidel will be coming to the northern Gulf coast from the TWC, just heard that. Stay safe all.

[Texas Snowman]

Not trying to start anything, just a respectful request here.

It is August 10th. Still somewhat early in the game and yet we appear to be on the verge of having the fourth named system of the season thus far (including one robust hurricane already).

So on this particular thread (Tropical Depression Five - Discussion) can we keep the conversation to what TD 5 is/isn't doing rather than adding things like "season still a dud," "switch still not flipped," etc.

And for that matter, ditto for "lid about to come off," "season about to ramp up."

Again, just a respectful request...

[AFWeather]

If this thing does beat the odds and intensify, it will be interesting to see what environmental effects even a weak cat 1 storm surge would have on the oil spill area.

[Texas Snowman]

If this thing does beat the odds and intensify, it will be interesting to see what environmental effects even a weak cat 1 storm surge would have on the oil spill area.

True that.

Also curious about the possible path of this.

If TD 5 were to ramp up a little bit beyond the TS forecast into a Cat 1, correct me if I'm wrong, but the current NHC forecast path is a bad storm surge path for New Orleans, no?

[supercane]

Still a very broad disorganized low without any large pressure drops on obs. Sat, obs, shear overlay.