ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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srainhoutx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#841 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:31 am

Big difference on the GFS with the Upper (cuttoff) Low. It is no longer transient and certainly not as deep.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#842 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:32 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#843 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:33 am

H162: strong storm south of Cuba moving towards the Channel

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_162l.gif
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#844 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:33 am

strengthening at 156 south of cuba....




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#845 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:34 am

H180: strengthening and about to make landfall in Southern Cuba (almost same place as Irene in 1999 made landfall in Cuba)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_180l.gif
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#846 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:35 am

H180 powerful storm developing south of Cuba with eyes set on fl...



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#847 Postby xironman » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:35 am

Following the vorticity it looks like that is something new that develops, not 95L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#848 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:36 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#849 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:36 am

Lookout Florida!

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Last edited by Brent on Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#850 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:37 am

thats is deep brother....

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#851 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:38 am

H204: Charley Redux?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_204l.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#852 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:38 am

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#853 Postby Vortex » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:38 am

H204 powerful storm headeding towards the peninsula....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_204l.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#854 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:39 am

not Wilma but Charlie part II....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#855 Postby caneseddy » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:39 am

xironman wrote:Following the vorticity it looks like that is something new that develops, not 95L


Apparently what happens on this run is that 95L/Matthew goes into the YP and into the BOC; however, a piece of 95L gets left behind in the Gulf of Honduras just drifting there; at the same time, a new system develops around Jamaica and it absorbs the leftover energy from Matthew into one new storm

It's been the same solution the GFS has had before
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#856 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:40 am

ROCK wrote:not Wilma but Charlie part II....

or god forbid Donna like
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#857 Postby stormchazer » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:40 am

:uarrow: Worse case for Tampa area. Good thing its 7+ days out.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#858 Postby ROCK » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:41 am

man, forecasters are going to lose some hair over this forecast....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#859 Postby Brent » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:43 am

ROCK wrote:not Wilma but Charlie part II....


That's exactly what I thought.
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#860 Postby dwsqos2 » Thu Sep 23, 2010 11:43 am

The stronger run isn't a shock. Delete the big cut off low, and you'll also delete strong upper-level SW winds impinging on the system. Having said that, I'm not sure the storm is actually 95L.
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