ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[boca]

Wilma was about 150miles further north when that formed.This just might go straight into Central America.i'm not sure about Florida anymore because of the models shifting west with each run.

[Vortex]

as we've seen several models are indicating a second low forming over the central carribean...This is an excellent read on wilma/alpha...could we have part 2 kenneth/nicole?


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Alpha_(2005)

[thetruesms]

here is the models map -
[img]http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/2686/storm95.gif[img]
The BAMM models (green)are usually not nearly as accurate here. They are best used in the deep tropical atlantic. The other models that go west are the AVNO (aviation) which is not considered that accurate, and then you have the GFDL.
The TVCN is the model suite that the NHC uses most often which I believe is a suite of models that are represented by all the grey lines you see.
Here is a link to s2k's model reference thread-
viewtopic.php?f=61&t=9467
It does need to be updated but it has some great info in there.



Correct me if I am wrong here pros!

Just a couple things to tweak: AVNO = GFS, Grey lines are GFS Ensemble members, and while the TVCN is an ensemble, it's a collection of at least two of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, Euro, HWRF, GFDL, and GFDN.

[artist]

here is the models map -
[img]http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/2686/storm95.gif[img]
The BAMM models (green)are usually not nearly as accurate here. They are best used in the deep tropical atlantic. The other models that go west are the AVNO (aviation) which is not considered that accurate, and then you have the GFDL.
The TVCN is the model suite that the NHC uses most often which I believe is a suite of models that are represented by all the grey lines you see.
Here is a link to s2k's model reference thread-
viewtopic.php?f=61&t=9467
It does need to be updated but it has some great info in there.



Correct me if I am wrong here pros!

Just a couple things to tweak: AVNO = GFS, Grey lines are GFS Ensemble members, and while the TVCN is an ensemble, it's a collection of at least two of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, Euro, HWRF, GFDL, and GFDN.

thank you! So the grey lines without points are?

[ROCK]

here is the models map -
[img]http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/2686/storm95.gif[img]
The BAMM models (green)are usually not nearly as accurate here. They are best used in the deep tropical atlantic. The other models that go west are the AVNO (aviation) which is not considered that accurate, and then you have the GFDL.
The TVCN is the model suite that the NHC uses most often which I believe is a suite of models that are represented by all the grey lines you see.
Here is a link to s2k's model reference thread-
viewtopic.php?f=61&t=9467
It does need to be updated but it has some great info in there.



Correct me if I am wrong here pros!

Just a couple things to tweak: AVNO = GFS, Grey lines are GFS Ensemble members, and while the TVCN is an ensemble, it's a collection of at least two of the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, Euro, HWRF, GFDL, and GFDN.

thank you! So the grey lines without points are?

GFS ensembles members...but looking at them currently there is a big spread....no consensus yet...

[ROCK]

12z GFS is rolling....18hr

[ROCK]

30hr

[Evil Jeremy]

Skirting Honduras at 42 hours.

[ROCK]

[Weatherfreak000]

Central America hardly even was in the equation! GFS has this thing absolutely racing near Honduras!



This run of the GFS will be very telling...looking to intensify as well.

[MWatkins]

Thorugh T+48 the 500mb ridge is breaking down in the model faster than the 6Z guidance, with a little deeper trough in the midwest.

Vortex looks underdone in the model, not reflecting at 500MB, I expect we'll have an upper-side tropical storm on our hands by then.

Interesting the hole in the 588DM ridge over Florida as an artifact of the breakdown...

MW

[KWT]

Wilma was about 150miles further north when that formed.This just might go straight into Central America.i'm not sure about Florida anymore because of the models shifting west with each run.

We are getting towards the time of year now where even systems this far south can be yanked up quite sharply by uper features...

The fact nearly all models show at least some northward motion is telling...the best option is this gets to the YUcatan then heads north and loosens up ALA Isadore and hasn't got the time to do much more then become a TS...

The worst case is obviously if it curves up faster then expected, followed by possibl nearly as bad solution of the system getting to the BoC then moving NNW and recurving...ALA Opal...

[caneseddy]

Shift north from the 00Z GFS which had 95L/Matthew going into CA; now it just has it skirting Honduras to the north, which means the center might stay over water and not weaken as previously thought

I am also interested if it develops the second system like the NAM is doing plus prior GFS run

Very interesting weekend and next week ahead

[caneseddy]

12Z GFS at H60: Off of the coast of Belize

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

[caneseddy]

At H66 into Belize/YP border

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif

At 72 hours, inland over YP

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

At 84, about to emerge into the BOC

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

At 90, there is a low in the BOC (Matthew?) while another one forms in back in the Gulf of Honduras

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_090l.gif

At 120, the BOC low goes poof while the new one over the Gulf of Honduras is sitting there

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_120l.gif

At 126, GFS develops a new low south of Jamaica

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126l.gif

At 138, the new low by Jamaica combines with the Gulf of Honduras low leftover from Matthew and form a new system south or west of Jamaica

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138l.gif

[ROCK]

[BigB0882]

At least I don't see a cut off low in MS just sitting there during this run of the GFS. That already makes me think this run has a little more to it. It seems this is either going to go all out or do very little in the ways of intensifying. I almost feel like MX to FL is still in play whereas last night I wouldn't have bet that West of LA had a chance.

[ROCK]

look at the placement of the ULL!!

[ROCK]

GFS realizing it is Sept and not December....

[Vortex]

Fl again?