ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[KWT]

I'd be surprised if it got so far west Texas comes into play but there is some real uncertainties with this system and the way the pattern evolves once the upper high erodes away in a couple of days time, and the difference between it being inland and say 50-60 miles offshore is real high which makes things real complicated.

[AdamFirst]

Is the cut off low the main factor why the gfs bends it backwards to the northwest towards the end of the run, like it's rotating around it?

[invest man]

Following the trends! Looks like a westerly movement then a slow curve northerly on most of those models, so it is just a matter of how far west it gets before the northerly curve begins. JMO
IM

[Steve]

>>Following the trends! Looks like a westerly movement then a slow curve northerly on most of those models, so it is just a matter of how far west it gets before the northerly curve begins. JMO

Not necessarily. You may see some northerly movement with even some eastern component, but with the NAO progged (albeit not as strong as it was supposed get as per yesterday's run) to return to positive through the end of next week, at some point there may not be the typical parabolic curve. You may see it starting, then you may see it kick back N/NW toward the panhandle or if in the Atlantic, back towards the east coast with a building ridge. It's all wait and see now.

>>I'd be surprised if it got so far west Texas comes into play...

While I agree with you, I'm not completely ruling out a BoC/Mexico solution which I've got around 5% along with death over the Yucatan. Florida, IMHO is about 80% with other possibilities running around 10. <--- just my opinion disclaimer

[caneseddy]

12z NAM out to 30 hours shows the system approaching the coast right at the Honduras/Nicaragua border

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_030l.gif

At 36 hours making landfall on the Honsuras/Nicaragua border

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, I know most of us think that this storm is going to be lifting out towards the northern gulf states or Florida, but I'm confused, because on the model map that cycloneye posted earlier that shows all of the models together, it shows some of the models curving this towards the pacific after it makes landfall....What's that all about?

[caneseddy]

Don't know if this was posted but here are the 12z model tracks

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/al952010.png

[Category 5]

Hmm, I know most of us think that this storm is going to be lifting out towards the northern gulf states or Florida, but I'm confused, because on the model map that cycloneye posted earlier that shows all of the models together, it shows some of the models curving this towards the pacific after it makes landfall....What's that all about?

Because only a couple of models disagree, and some people just really, REALLY want a U.S landfall.



Unless this thing gets lifted by a last minute miracle trough, its going into Central America/Mexico.

[caneseddy]

12Z NAM at 54 hours: sitting in the Gulf of Honduras

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

at 60 hours: still in the Gulf but a little bit more north

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

[ROCK]

06z NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

Hmm, I know most of us think that this storm is going to be lifting out towards the northern gulf states or Florida, but I'm confused, because on the model map that cycloneye posted earlier that shows all of the models together, it shows some of the models curving this towards the pacific after it makes landfall....What's that all about?

Because only a couple of models disagree, and some people just really, REALLY want a U.S landfall.
http://icons-pe.wunderground.com/data/i ... smodel.gif

Unless this thing gets lifted by a last minute miracle trough, its going into Central America/Mexico.

that is an untrue statement......I have a vested interest in FL so I for one dont want it going through the spine of the state or over it.....when I say this I mean a HIGHLYvested interest..

[caneseddy]

06z NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Interesting run: make landfall in the same place as the majority of models (Honduras/Nicaragua border) rides the whole Honduran coast until near Belize, emerges into the Gulf of Honduras, runs into Belize and seems to bounce back east then north..like I said interesting

[SouthFLTropics]

06z NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Interesting run: make landfall in the same place as the majority of models (Honduras/Nicaragua border) rides the whole Honduran coast until near Belize, emerges into the Gulf of Honduras, runs into Belize and seems to bounce back east then north..like I said interesting

That NOGAPS run seems to be inline with what the GFS has been thinking...A bounce back to the ENE and then a possible turn to the North when it is South of Cuba...After that who knows...

Off topic but interesting to note that NOGAPS also appears to spin up something off of the South American coast later on in the forecast as well as an additional storm in the East Atlantic...

SFT

[artist]

here is the models map -

The BAMM models (green)are usually not nearly as accurate here. They are best used in the deep tropical atlantic. The other models that go west are the AVNO (aviation) which is not considered that accurate, and then you have the GFDL.
The TVCN is the model suite that the NHC uses most often which I believe is a suite of models that are represented by all the grey lines you see.
Here is a link to s2k's model reference thread-
viewtopic.php?f=61&t=9467
It does need to be updated but it has some great info in there.



Correct me if I am wrong here pros!

[caneseddy]

12Z NAM at 78 hours: starting to move North and strengthening with what looks like a second system beginning to form south of DR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

12z NAM at 84 hours (end of run): 95L moving north parallel to YP over NW Caribbean with a developed system south of DR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Vortex]

12Z NAM if this track verifies could have a powerhouse in the making...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[PTrackerLA]

Interesting that the latest BAM models all take this into or towards the pacific...

[Vortex]

looks more and more wilmaish...remember alpha south of the dr when wilma was going...mirror image to an extent

[PTrackerLA]

12Z NAM if this track verifies could have a powerhouse in the making...




http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Seems like this year the NAM has had quite a northern bias with tropical systems.

[Vortex]

remember the bams models are horrible with depictiting the type of cut off low expected in the mid latitudes..remove the cutoff low and the bam models look right on...