ATL: GASTON - Models

[cycloneye]

18z Tropical Models

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WHXX01 KWBC 051827
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC SUN SEP 5 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE GASTON (AL092010) 20100905 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100905  1800   100906  0600   100906  1800   100907  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.0N  51.2W   17.1N  53.8W   17.3N  56.9W   17.2N  59.8W
BAMD    17.0N  51.2W   17.2N  53.8W   17.4N  56.8W   17.6N  59.8W
BAMM    17.0N  51.2W   16.8N  53.5W   16.7N  56.1W   16.6N  58.9W
LBAR    17.0N  51.2W   17.1N  53.8W   17.1N  56.7W   17.1N  59.8W
SHIP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          28KTS          34KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100907  1800   100908  1800   100909  1800   100910  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    17.3N  62.7W   17.6N  67.4W   17.9N  71.2W   18.5N  75.0W
BAMD    18.0N  62.5W   18.8N  67.1W   19.7N  70.3W   20.4N  72.7W
BAMM    16.8N  61.5W   17.5N  66.1W   18.5N  69.7W   19.5N  73.2W
LBAR    17.2N  62.9W   17.2N  68.2W   16.8N  72.3W   16.5N  76.4W
SHIP        54KTS          74KTS          92KTS         108KTS
DSHP        54KTS          74KTS          71KTS          43KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  17.0N LONCUR =  51.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  16.8N LONM12 =  48.8W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  11KT
LATM24 =  16.6N LONM24 =  46.6W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  125NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[rockyman]

Storms near Jamaica in September cause nervousness around my part of the Gulf Coast (Alabama):

[Ikester]

Soon, we can start calling the 'safe' shots...usually starting in the western gulf. "USUALLY" the Texas season shuts down by the end of September. Very, very rare for a storm to threaten after the 23rd or so.

[KWT]

I think if anywhere needs to watch this closely though apart from the Caribbean its probably Texas, esp southern parts of the region, La Ninas tend to give a few scares in September to Mexico and Texas as tyhe upper high sits over the SE Gulf states and directs the system westwards towards the Yucatan/S.Gulf.

Models showing a WSW movement which means it avoids the worst of Hispaniola in that case...now just need a storm to start with!

[rockyman]

Euro brings the system into the south central Gulf...north of the Yucatan...heading WNW...very weak

[Migle]

Soon, we can start calling the 'safe' shots...usually starting in the western gulf. "USUALLY" the Texas season shuts down by the end of September. Very, very rare for a storm to threaten after the 23rd or so.

Yeah I would think so. IMO, this one is probably Texas' last threat and chance for this season.

[KWT]

Euro brings the system into the south central Gulf...north of the Yucatan...heading WNW...very weak

The track is whats important with this one, it may well stay very weak but I've got to imagine at some point in the journey it'd find good enough conditions to redevelop and it seems increasingly possible this one takes the classic track through the Caribbean.

[Ptarmigan]

I think if anywhere needs to watch this closely though apart from the Caribbean its probably Texas, esp southern parts of the region, La Ninas tend to give a few scares in September to Mexico and Texas as tyhe upper high sits over the SE Gulf states and directs the system westwards towards the Yucatan/S.Gulf.

Models showing a WSW movement which means it avoids the worst of Hispaniola in that case...now just need a storm to start with!

Gaston has me a bit concerned. I would have to see in the next few days.

[KWT]

ECM keeps it weak the whole way and only slightly attempts to strengthen the system in the W.Gulf before it hits C.Texas...

Actually the track from the ECM looks pretty solid to me, its just the strength I'm far from convinced about with regards to Gaston...

[Sambucol]

ECM keeps it weak the whole way and only slightly attempts to strengthen the system in the W.Gulf before it hits C.Texas...

Actually the track from the ECM looks pretty solid to me, its just the strength I'm far from convinced about with regards to Gaston...

What is the timeframe with this run?

[rockyman]

ECM keeps it weak the whole way and only slightly attempts to strengthen the system in the W.Gulf before it hits C.Texas...

Actually the track from the ECM looks pretty solid to me, its just the strength I'm far from convinced about with regards to Gaston...

What is the timeframe with this run?

10 days until landfall (September 15th)

[KWT]

ECM reaches the coast at day 10...so a while away yet really...

Also quite a noteable system heading towards the NE Caribbean yet again...

[Bailey1777]

kwt your good at thistuff so if it makes it into the gom what kind of conditions do you see it moving into?

[Sambucol]

How well has the ECM done in its tropical forecasts (especially 10 days out) this hurricane season? Thanks.

[ROCK]

How well has the ECM done in its tropical forecasts (especially 10 days out) this hurricane season? Thanks.

ECM is just as good as the GFS after 144-196hr IMO....now if this run was showing up around 144hr it would spark my interest some...as of right now its just a run...

[fasterdisaster]

ECM reaches the coast at day 10...so a while away yet really...

Also quite a noteable system heading towards the NE Caribbean yet again...

Could that be what's left of 99L?

[hurricaneCW]

No it's not 99L, what the Euro shows is a wave over Africa that will come off in the next 2 days. The gfs really likes that wave too and strongly develops it. The gfs recurves it rather early around 60W, the Euro keeps it further west. Models aren't really hatching on to Ex-Gaston as they are to the wave over Africa so it makes me doubt that it could get going. Only time will tell.

[KWT]

Models getting into good agreement on some sort of weak WSW motion occuring between 65-70W as the upper high builds to the north. The only problem is quite afew of the global models still refuse to strengthen the system, though the tropical models do show strengthening in the Caribbean.

[ConvergenceZone]

Even though WXMAN thinks thinks that this is going to go north of Puerto Rico, I'm not sure that's going to happen. The models seems to be coming in better agreement on pulling this through the carib.

[ROCK]

the 18z has a TW moving under the islands....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

after that it is nada....wonder what the deal is with it? obvious conditions will be improving and passing over the hottest part of the basin...