ATL: EX-Tropical Depression FIVE - Discussion

[redfish1]

is there already an opening their for the TD to move northward or is this something that is supposed to happen soon?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Tim, I guess as others have pointed out to me the NHC is pretty much model hugging at the moment. I assume currently they are showing some sort of shear impacting TD5. And we all know how quickly they can change from one update to the next.

[frederic79]

Not to imply that this will be very strong, but how many times has the NHC underestimated a strengthening storm only to roll out the tried and true "we remain somewhat unskilled in the area of intensity forecasting". It makes you wonder what kinds of storm an iffy environment and near-record SST's can produce in 48 hours...

[KWT]

MiamiHurricanes10, yeah I totally agree with your ideas, I think conditions are going to be condusive enough for some decent strengthening to occur but I do want to see a few things happen first in the next 12-18hrs before I get on board with the idea of a possible hurricane down the line...

We will see though!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

is there already an opening their for the TD to move northward or is this something that is supposed to happen soon?

Redfish, the NHC said they cant quite make out an exact motion due to the broad low. Anyway it will all change come tomorrow when the high further north builds in and the TD starts bumping up against it. Therefore turning it more to the west.

[redfish1]

is there already an opening their for the TD to move northward or is this something that is supposed to happen soon?

Redfish, the NHC said they cant quite make out an exact motion due to the broad low. Anyway it will all change come tomorrow when the high further north builds in and the TD starts bumping up against it. Therefore turning it more to the west.

ok thank you...i am just trying to figure all this out

[Dean4Storms]

One thing is for certain, the NHC is relying mostly with this first forecast on intensity with the models and splitting the hairs. But we all know intensity forecast are one of the biggest busts in forecasting. With that said, if I lived between P'Cola and Intercoastal City, LA I would prepare as if a Cat 1 Hurricane might come and hope for the best.

Best to be caught prepared and it be weaker than to not be prepared and it be much stronger!!!

[wxman57]

so is Texas pretty much out of the woods on this one?

No. Texas is in the cone.

Texas is only in the cone because when the center is dissipating inland near Alexandria, LA the cone size is quite large, reaching all the way to SE TX. It's not going to make landfall in Texas.

[KWT]

Best to be caught prepared and it be weaker than to not be prepared and it be much stronger!!!

Yeah exactly, if Humberto taught us anything back in 2007 its we should always be prepared for things to really explode at any moment. That won't occur this time from the looks of things but a 55-65kts system coming in is still nothing to be sneezed at, esp if its strengthening into landfall or bursting.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman, what is your latest thinking as to what kind of intensity we might see with TD5? Do you agree with the NHC keeping this weak due to shear or a chance this might actually get stronger than currently forecast?

[LSU2001]

Dean, I won't be caught unprepared as I got my stuff together before June 1st like always .
What worrys me is the shear number of out of town folks we have down in South Lafourche due to the oil spill. How many will stay on Grand Isle and throw a hurricane party despite the warnings and evacs that will be issued if the storm intensifies. Grand Isle floods in a stiff south breeze nowadays. It would be bad to have workers unfamiliar with the area trying to stay for a storm fore-casted to be nothing more than a rain event and ending up chest deep in water (edit: Water/oil mix)
trying to get out of Grand Isle with the only hwy out flooded.
Tim

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFDL still with a strong system. 995mb near New Orleans

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... MSL048.gif

[Hurricane]

so is Texas pretty much out of the woods on this one?

No. Texas is in the cone.

Texas is only in the cone because when the center is dissipating inland near Alexandria, LA the cone size is quite large, reaching all the way to SE TX. It's not going to make landfall in Texas.

Are you completely certain this won't make landfall in Texas?

[KWT]

Not to imply that this will be very strong, but how many times has the NHC underestimated a strengthening storm only to roll out the tried and true "we remain somewhat unskilled in the area of intensity forecasting". ...

Gosh yeah if there is one thing that clearly the NHC still struggle at quite a few times it is intensity...I think th first advisory was too low but we will see..the next 24hrs will let us know how is all going.

[cpdaman]

18z GFDL still with a strong system. 995mb near New Orleans

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models ... MSL048.gif

strong in that instance is a relative term.

[HURAKAN]

Not to imply that this will be very strong, but how many times has the NHC underestimated a strengthening storm only to roll out the tried and true "we remain somewhat unskilled in the area of intensity forecasting". ...

Gosh yeah if there is one thing that clearly the NHC still struggle at quite a few times it is intensity...I think th first advisory was too low but we will see..the next 24hrs will let us know how is all going.

The intensity problem is international. I don't think there is an agency on the planet that can get the intensity forecast correct most of the time.

[gatorcane]

Not to imply that this will be very strong, but how many times has the NHC underestimated a strengthening storm only to roll out the tried and true "we remain somewhat unskilled in the area of intensity forecasting". ...

Gosh yeah if there is one thing that clearly the NHC still struggle at quite a few times it is intensity...I think th first advisory was too low but we will see..the next 24hrs will let us know how is all going.

Agreed, but model consensus is in excellent agreement that TD #5 is not going to become anything significant (i.e. major hurricane)....the GFDL shows a minimal hurricane but even the NHC is throwing that out at the moment....and for obvious reasons. Look how many times the GFDL has been biased towards an intense system.

When consensus is that good, you have to go with the models...chances are quite high that if it becomes named, it won't be more than a tropical storm with an outside chance of a CAT 1 hurricane.

Looking at TD #5 tonight, I think it is barely a TD. Convection is on the decrease as dry (more stable air) is being pumped in from the ULL...this is not a Katrina situation at all. By dry I mean relatively more stable air over mainland SE United States.

TD #5 is also starting to get a move on to the WNW...by this time tomorrow will be moving at a very good clip to the NW and will be over land before anything significant can develop.

[Dean4Storms]

00z Tropical models look like they shifted a bit eastward, more toward MS/AL border!

[redfish1]

is there a high that is supposed to build in and possibly push this storm further west?

[LSU2001]

Gatorcane,
I do agree that this system probably won't get beyond strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane, but to call a TS/Cat 1 not significant is IMHO very much understating the potential damage that such a system can cause. Even Derek used to say never underestimate the damage that a minimal cane can cause. Even a Cat 1 on the track that the NCH shows can cause significant flooding on the SE La. coast. Not to mention the effects of the oil that is still mixed in the water column. This storm will probably be significant for our region even if it does not reach major status which it most probably won't.
Tim