WPAC: MEGI (1013/15W) - Tropical Depression

[supercane]

TXPN23 KNES 130901
SIMWIR
A. 15W (NONAME)
B. 13/0830Z
C. 12.3N
D. 140.7E
E. FIVE/MTSAT
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS/AMSRE/AMSU
H. REMARKS...15W CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH GREAT OUTFLOW
DEVELOPING CDO FEATURE AND SE QUAD BANDING FEATURE. CENTRAL FEATURE
WRAPS .5 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 2.5. MET IS 2.5. PT IS 2.5 FT BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
13/0339Z 12.1N 141.1E AMSRE
13/0442Z 12.3N 140.9E AMSU
...GALLINA
=

[Typhoon Hunter]

UKMET also forecasting an INTENSE system but taking it more to the south than the other models:


FXXT03 EGRR 130600


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-WEST PACIFIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.10.2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15W ANALYSED POSITION : 11.8N 140.5E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.10.2010 11.8N 140.5E WEAK
12UTC 13.10.2010 11.9N 140.8E WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.10.2010 12.8N 139.7E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.10.2010 13.1N 139.0E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.10.2010 14.2N 137.4E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.10.2010 14.5N 134.6E STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.10.2010 15.3N 132.5E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2010 15.7N 130.3E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.10.2010 15.8N 128.2E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.10.2010 15.8N 126.4E STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.10.2010 16.1N 124.3E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.10.2010 16.4N 121.8E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.10.2010 16.2N 119.8E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

[alan1961]

A zoomed in view of GFS out at 180 hours..a long way
to go yet but looks a formidable typhoon in the making.

[Chacor]

JMA holding at T2.0
TCNA21 RJTD 131200
CCAA 13120 47644 NAMELESS 17117 11409 14194 220// 90000=

[Typhoon Hunter]

Anyone else been having difficultly with the Guam and SOHEMI NOAA sat loops recently? They seem to be really screwy at the moment!

Good looking TD according to JMA, the way 15W has consolidated today I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong TS or minimal typhoon at some point tomorrow!

[RobWESTPACWX]

I agree TH, I get the feeling by the feeling not by morning, but by evening as well we will have a stronger storm. Going to be interesting.

[dexterlabio]

TPPN11 PGTW 131219

A. TROPICAL STORM 15W (SW OF GUAM)

B. 13/1130Z

C. 11.6N

D. 140.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPPED A .70 ON LOG
10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF A 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/0754Z 11.4N 140.8E SSMI
13/0806Z 11.5N 140.8E SSMS
13/0902Z 11.6N 140.9E AMSU
13/0915Z 11.7N 140.9E SSMS


GATES

[Chacor]

JMA have upgraded. 13th named storm of the season is 7.8 behind average.

WTPQ20 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1013 MEGI (1013) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 11.7N 140.9E FAIR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 12.8N 139.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 151200UTC 14.8N 136.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 161200UTC 17.2N 132.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[KWT]

I think this maybe the biggie for this season like what Babs/Zeb was in 1998.

Models in some disagreement though the broad idea of it heading westwards between 120-180hrs is gaining good support now.

IMO this may have been a TS for a little while longer then offically has been the case.

[RobWESTPACWX]

KWT, I do not want to jump the gun to quick on it, but you may be right....

My thoughts this evening though before knocking off for the night!
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41me-6m_bgw[/youtube]

[KWT]

Yeah still time for things to change I agree Rob but it does look like its going to need to be watched, whilst the track are in disagreement the models all agree on probably a powerful Typhoon, possibly a super Typhoon...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Great insight as always Rob!

Glad to see JMA upgrade even though they kept Megi at T2.0, they do that sometimes.

JTWC track pretty much unchanged in warning 3, but they've upped intensity to 115kts in days 4 and 5, no surprises there. Northern Luzon still in the firing line. Looking forward to checking ECMWF 12z tomorrow morning.

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (MEGI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 11.9N 140.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 140.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 12.2N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 12.7N 138.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 13.4N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.4N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 16.2N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.3N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.0N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 140.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (MEGI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Is a good bet that Megi will be the biggest ACE producer this year. Anyone who wants to update the WPAC numbers from now on,go to the 2010 ACE thread at Talking Tropics.

[Macrocane]

So far this year Igor has been the biggest ACE producer and Celia (and I think Ului) have been the strongest tropical cyclones, those records may be hard to break but let's see what Megi does.

[cycloneye]

So far this year Igor has been the biggest ACE producer and Celia (and I think Ului) have been the strongest tropical cyclones, those records may be hard to break but let's see what Megi does.

I have to clarify that I meant highest ACE producer in the WPAC.

[Macrocane]

I have to clarify that I meant highest ACE producer in the WPAC.

In that case I agree with you plus I think it could be as strong as Celia, the Philippines should watch this carefully.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Someone is going to haft to message me and explain what this ACE stuff is. Probably silly that don't know it but am curios.

[cycloneye]

Someone is going to haft to message me and explain what this ACE stuff is. Probably silly that don't know it but am curios.

Here is all you need to know about this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_Cyclone_Energy

[RobWESTPACWX]

oooo got it now, it all has to do with climo. Thanks for the link.